Super Saturday in the NRL continues at 5:30pm AEST at Jubilee Stadium in Kogarah, with an intriguing battle between two teams looking to sneak their way into the top 8. The Roosters (9th) and Dragons (11th) are both within touching distance of the top 8, and this game obviously means a lot to both, with both teams looking at a tough month of football ahead. A loss here could be a nail in the coffin to both teams, and they will both be desperate for the two points here.
Dragons vs Roosters Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 19
Dragons Halves on Thin Ice
The Dragons have looked better the past two weeks, with a big win over the Eels in round 17 followed by a tight loss to the Raiders last week, 28-24. The Raiders looked like they were going to put the Dragons to the sword, leading 24-6 with the game nearing the hour mark, before the Dragons made a great comeback, scoring three tries in 15 minutes. It wasn’t enough, as they narrowly went down to the ladder leaders, however there were plenty of positives to look at for the Dragons. Tyrell Sloan showed he could be a great pick up for teams next season, as he ran for over 200 metres and scored two tries, whilst young winger Sione Finau ran strongly all game, finishing with 217 metres from 20 carries. There are still question marks over the Dragons’ halves pairing, with whispers that Lachlan Ilias is pushing for a recall.
Marky Mark Pushes Towards Becoming Duel International
The Roosters suffered a horrible loss last week, going down 30-28 to the Tigers who were missing their entire starting spine from the start of the year. The Roosters closed 12.5-point favourites, but were overawed early by the baby Tigers, trailing 20-0 after half an hour. The Roosters bounced back, scoring two quick tries before halftime to cut the deficit to 10, and once again Tigers fans were thinking they’d seen this all before. The Tigers managed to come out in the second half and put 8 quick points on the board, before the Roosters made their final charge, managing two converted tries in the last 6 minutes, but it wasn’t enough. Naufahu Whyte was massive in the middle, running for 250 metres, making 45 tackles, and busting 5 tackles. Mark Nawaqanitawase was also great for the Roosters, as he continues his ascension to the pinnacle of rugby league, scoring two tries and breaking a massive 14 tackles. The Dragons have to stop him if they have any chance this week.
Dragons vs Roosters Recent History
The Roosters have dominated the recent matchups with the Dragons, winning the past three games by a combined score of 148-48. The Dragons did win the last game at this venue, beating the Roosters in round 12 in 2023, 24-22. Other than that, though, it has been a dominant rivalry for the Roosters, who have won 12 of the past 14 clashes with their ANZAC Day rivals.
In their last clash on ANZAC Day this season, the Roosters closed short 1.5-point favourites at home, with a total of 47.5. After both teams started strongly with a try apiece inside 10 minutes, the Roosters took control, crossing for three unanswered tries, before finishing strongly in the second half to win 46-18. It was a comprehensive win for the Roosters, as they dominated the statistics, and got the win despite the sinbinning of Sandon Smith. Speaking of Smith, he was brilliant for the Roosters, scoring two tries, breaking the line three times, and kicking 7 from 8 to score 22 points alone. He will not be seen this week though, with the return of Sam Walker at halfback for the Roosters.
Roosters to Bounce Back with a Needed Win
The Roosters opened 4.5-point road favourites, and there wasn’t a great deal of movement early, given the four Origin players for the Roosters and the uncertainty about them backing up. Now that Origin is over, it would appear that all four Roosters players will back up, and money has quickly come in on the road team, as they now sit as juiced 5.5-point favourites. I believe there is solid value on the Roosters here, who will be desperate to bounce back after their shock loss last week. I have the Roosters as 7.5-point favourites and see value on anything under the converted try margin here. The Concern is the Dragons’ ability to keep games close when they lose, as demonstrated by the stat that in their 9 losses this season, only two have been by a margin of 13+. Despite this, I like the Roosters to win by margin here, with their upcoming schedule of Sharks (A), Storm (H), Sea Eagles (A), and Dolphins (A) a tough one. They need a win here to keep their finals’ hopes alive.
Looking at the total, and it opened 48.5 and hasn’t moved throughout the week. My fair total is 50.5, so I do see some slight value to the over here, with both teams tending to play overs (both teams have played 9 of 15 games over the closing total). However, I prefer the spread bet here, and so will just lean towards the over.
Roosters (-5.5)
$1.90 (2 Units)
Dragons vs Roosters Player Prop Bet: Marky Mark to Make it 14
Our Best Player Prop: Mark Nawaqanitawase (1+ try)
The Roosters winger has been dominant in attack this season, scoring 13 tries in 13 games. This week, he gets to take on a poor Dragons left edge defence, with rookie Sione Finau no doubt having his hands full with the former Rugby International.
Mark Nawaqanitawase (1+ try)
$1.67 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi: Dragons vs Roosters
Leg 1: Over 48.5 Points – As above, I like the over here and will add it to the SGM for a nice little bump in price.
Leg 2: M Nawaqanitawase (2+ try) – Marky Mark is proving hard to stop for even the best of teams, expect him to be giving the Dragons’ left edge nightmares all game.
Leg 3: V Holmes (1+ try) – Holmes will still be on a massive high following the Maroons huge win on Wednesday night. Has been quietly building into some good form for the Dragons and will go well again here.
Dragons vs Roosters vs Tigers Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 12th July
Location: Jubilee Stadium - Kogarah
Weather: Fine, 17 degrees
Odds: Dragons ($2.50) vs Roosters ($1.53)
Where to Watch Dragons vs Roosters
Watch the Dragons vs Roosters match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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