NRL Super Saturday continues at 5:30pm AEST in Brisbane, in the game of the day as the Dolphins host the Roosters in a massive game of football. With the Dolphins (8th) and Roosters (9th) sitting on the edge of the top 8, there couldn’t be more on the line right here, as the Dolphins look to push potentially four points clear of 9th place with a win here. A loss for the Roosters could be disastrous, so they will have just as much desperation as the Dolphins. Can’t wait for this one.
Ben Bridge brings you his preview and best bets for this clash below and if you’re keen to play along, simply join Neds via this link!
Dolphins vs Roosters Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 23
Dolphins Continue Push Towards First Finals Appearance
The Dolphins are coming in off their second straight win last week, and seventh win in their past 10 games. They travelled to Auckland last week to take on the Warriors in a big game for both teams, and despite the early loss of superstar centre Herbie Farnworth, the Dolphins dug deep, scoring a remarkable try in the 79th minute to take the win.
It was a game of tremendous resiliency for a side that has lacked it over its brief history in the NRL, as they almost matched the Warriors across the board statistically. However, they continued to show how brilliant they are in attack, managing nine-line breaks to just the three, in what could prove a pivotal win for the Dolphins come season’s end.
Jake Averillo was huge for the Dolphins, running for over 200 metres and busting 10 tackles, whilst Jeremy Marshall-King looked back to his best, making 44 tackles, breaking the line twice, scoring a try and setting up another. In a bitter blow, Herbie Farnworth was lost for potentially the season with an ankle injury. He was unbelievable in the opening 18 minutes, running for 129 metres, breaking the line three times, and scoring a try. It’s going to be fascinating to see how the Dolphins respond to this injury.
Can The Roosters Still Sneak Into the 8?
The Roosters come in off an impressive victory over the Sea Eagles last week, running away 20-4 winners. Despite an early try to Tolutau Koula, the Roosters weren’t behind for long, with Billy Smith crossing in the 31st minute, and Sam Walker slotting the extras to take the lead. The Roosters were never in trouble again, as they eased back towards the edge of the top 8 with the win.
In terrible conditions, Sam Walker was back to his scheming best, in a huge boost for the Roosters, as he set up two tries and kicked four from four conversions in trying conditions. Whilst there were no sensational statistical games from any of the Roosters players, it was easily forgiven, given the atrocious conditions. They should look far more clinical in attack this week in dry conditions.
Dolphins vs Roosters Recent History
The Dolphins won their first ever game as a Franchise against the Roosters in round 1 in 2023, but it has been all Roosters since, as the Chooks have managed to win the last three matchups, scoring at least 30 points in each game. However, it’s one apiece at this venue, and the Dolphins are at their highest level since their inception into the competition in 2023 in my opinion.
Taking a look back at the last time these teams met, and it was the Dolphins who closed a short 1.5-point “road” favourite at Suncorp Stadium in Magic Round this season, with a closing total of 48.5. It was the Roosters who looked good early, scoring three unanswered tries inside the opening 25 minutes, before 8 points in three minutes from the Dolphins right before the break cut the Roosters’ lead to just a converted try. Once again though, the Roosters came out hot, running in three tries in seven minutes to extend their lead to 24. Despite three tries in nine minutes for the Dolphins, it wasn’t enough, as they went down 36-26. James Tedesco was in everything for the Roosters, running for 271 metres, breaking the line twice, setting up two try / line break combos, and busting 10 tackles. Robert Toia was also massive, also running for over 200 metres, whilst scoring two tries, breaking the line twice, busting 8 tackles, popping four offloads, and setting up a try. Two big games for two Roosters’ stars.
Is the Loss of Herbie Enough for the Roosters to Win?
The Dolphins were slated as 4.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 0.5-point underdogs after the loss of Herbie Farnworth. Further Roosters’ money has hit the market since we re-opened, pushing this to Roosters -1.5 on the road. I understand the movement towards the Roosters; however, I cannot get to this number, even with the loss of Farnworth. My raw number for this game is the Dolphins by over a converted try, and whilst even with Farnworth I would consider that high, it’s still a huge discrepancy to the market. My power numbers make it far closer (Dolphins -2.5), so I do see good value in the home side here and believe a Dolphins ML ticket is a great bet this week. Can probably wait, as it appears Roosters’ sentiment will continue throughout the week.
Looking at the total, and it opened 47.5, and has been bet up a healthy amount to 49.5. I’m in favour of this move, as my fair total sits at 52. There is still a little meat on the bone if you want to bet the over, however the time to bet it was at open when you could get 47.5 everywhere. Very much lean towards the over, and will probably bet it myself, but I don’t like it as much now, or as much as the spread / moneyline.
So, the Dolphins to get the win here, in a massive clash with the Roosters, despite the loss of Herbie.
Dolphins to Win
$2.05 (1.5 Units)
Dolphins vs Roosters Player Prop Bet: Crichton to Keep up Try Scoring Form
Our Best Prop Bet: Crichton 1+ Try
Angus Crichton has the feel of a man who is about to take off to finish the season. With only three tries this season, expect him to come home strong, and with Sam Walker back taking control on the left, I love Crichton to score here.
Angus Crichton (1+ try)
$4.50
Same Game Multi: Dolphins vs Roosters
Leg 1: Dolphins ML – As above, see best bet.
Leg 2: A Crichton (1+ try) – See above player prop bet.
Leg 3: J Isaako (1+ try) – 10 tries this season in 19 games, Isaako is a more than capable finisher and with four tries in four games against the Roosters, I’ll back him in here.
SGM Odds: $15.00 at Dabble
Dolphins vs Roosters Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 9th August
Location: Suncorp Stadium - Brisbane
Time: 5:30pm AEST
Weather: Possible showers, 16 degrees
Odds: Dolphins ($2.00) vs Roosters ($1.82)
Line: Roosters (-1.5)
Points: 47.5
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Where to Watch Dolphins vs Roosters
Watch the Dolphins vs Roosters match on Channel 9, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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