Sunday afternoon football kicks off in Redcliffe, as the Dolphins take their final home game of the season to their actual home ground, where they will welcome the recently confirmed Minor Premiers, the Raiders. The Dolphins will know by the time they take the field whether they can make the finals, with the result of Friday Night Football between the Roosters and Rabbitohs largely going to dictate how this game goes.
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Dolphins vs Raiders Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 27
Can the Dolphins’ Defence do Enough to Help the Attack?
The Dolphins snapped a worrying three game losing streak last week, as they overcame a spirited Titans team to win 36-30. The opening 15 minutes looked like the Dolphins of a couple of months ago, as they flew out of the gates to lead 18-0 after scoring three tries in nine minutes. But the fragility of the Dolphins’ defence reared its ugly head, as they then conceded three tries in 10 minutes to have the game all square at the half. Two quick tries to start the second half ultimately proved the difference, but it still wasn’t a performance that had me rushing to bet them this week.
Trai Fuller has kept his spot at fullback for the Dolphins this week, and it’s well deserved after he tortured the Titans last week, running for 203 metres, making three line breaks, scoring a try and setting up two others, whilst Tevita Naufahu continued his great form, scoring two tries, breaking the line three times, and running for 200 metres.
The concern continues to be for the defence of the Dolphins, who have conceded 25 points a game this year, conceding a mammoth 190 points at 47.5 points per game over their last month of football. Even with a second-string Raiders’ team this week, the Dolphins may still concede 30.
Mass Restings for the Minor Premiers
The Raiders come in fresh of securing the Minor Premiership last weekend, after defeating the Tigers 24-10 at home. It was a massively emotional day for the Green Machine, securing the team’s first Minor Premiership since 1990. With almost their entire team being rested this week in preparation for the first week of the finals next week, Coach Ricky Stuart will give several of his young players some key minutes in the top grade to see what they have.
In the matchup with the Tigers, the Raiders were in a real dog fight for the opening 40 minutes, as the Tigers bounced back twice from being a converted try down, to trail the Raiders by just two points at the break. A quick try to Simi Sasagi in the second half put the Raiders ahead by 8, and they never looked in danger again, eventually running out 14-point winners after a late Ethan Strange try. With a brilliant 19-4 record, the Raiders have nothing to play for this week, and have taken the very smart approach in resting their stars.
Dolphins vs Raiders Recent History
The Raiders have managed three wins from the four games between these teams since the Dolphins entered the competition in 2023, with the results one-apiece at this venue. Interestingly, there have been two Golden Point finishes between the teams, with the Raiders managing to win both games. The Green Machine have also won the past three matchups with the Dolphins.
In the last game between the teams back in round 8, the Raiders hosted the Dolphins at GIO Stadium as 6.5-point home favourites, with a total of 48.5. The game was a tale of two halves, as the Dolphins looked tremendous in the opening 40, leading 28-10 at the break, before the Raiders stormed home, scoring five unanswered tries to win the game 40-28, in another display of terrible defence by the Dolphins.
The Raiders had contributions across the park, however it was Jamal Fogarty who was their best, scoring a try, setting up another, making 24 tackles and kicking 6 from 8. As for the Dolphins, Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo were tremendous, both running for over 150 metres and scoring a try apiece.
Tough Game to Handicap, but Dolphins Should get it Done
The Dolphins opened 9.5-point favourites once it was confirmed the Raiders would be resting players, and money has continued to pour in on the Dolphins during the week. The number pushed up towards 13.5 at one point, however it has since settled at Dolphins -12.5. Much like the Panthers/Bulldogs game last week, it’s very difficult to line this sort of matchup with such little data on so many of the Raiders’ players. You would have to lean towards the Dolphins getting the job done here, given how tremendous they are in attack they should be able to score enough points to cover this number. It won’t be a huge bet, given the Dolphins could have nothing to play for, however I’ll take the Dolphins to get this done by 13+.
Looking at the total, it opened 51.5 and has been bet up to 53.5. My fair total is actually a little higher, however with the amount of strike power out for the Raiders, there’s no way I can bet an over here. The Dolphins have consistently been lined as the highest totals each week, and this week is no different. Would lean the over, but no play.
So, not a lot to say here as there is just no point in getting to heavily involved with so many unknowns. Dolphins to cover, small bets.
Dolphins -12.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Dolphins vs Raiders Player Prop Bets
It's Hammer Time
I can’t see the Raiders holding the Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow out for 80 minutes, and I’ll back him in for a double here to close out the season.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (2+ tries)
$3.80 (1 unit)
Same Game Multi: Dolphins vs Raiders
Leg 1: Dolphins (13+) – See best bet.
Leg 2: H Tabuai-Fidow (1+ try) – See Best Prop Bet.
Leg 3: M Nicholson (1+ try) – The big Englishmen returns to first grade in round 27, and he showed during his nine-game stint earlier this season that he can find the line, scoring five tries in those games.
SGM Odds: $15.00 at Dabble
Dolphins vs Raiders Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, September 77th 2025
Location: Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe
Time: 2:00pm AEST
Weather: Fine, 22 degrees.
Odds: Dolphins ($1.26) vs Raiders ($3.90)
Line: Dolphins -12.5
Points: 52.5
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