Friday night NRL action continues in Brisbane, as the Dolphins host the Dragons at Suncorp Stadium in a huge matchup for both teams’ top 8 hopes. With the Dragons currently occupying 8th and the final place in the finals, and the Dolphins just two points behind them in 10th, the winner of this game is all but assured of being inside the top 8 come the end of round 14. This should be a fascinating game of football.
Ben brings you his preview and best bets for this clash below and if you’re keen to play along, simply join Neds via this link!
Dolphins vs Dragons Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 14
Will Herbie Once Again Prove the DIfference?
The Dolphins come into this crucial clash fresh off the bye in round 13. In round 12, the Dolphins put together one of their more impressive displays of the season, thumping the Bulldogs 44-8 at Accor Stadium. With wins already this season against the Storm and Panthers, it once again showed the Dolphins get up for the big games. Herbie Farnworth kept his try scoring streak alive, as he scored a try in his seventh consecutive game. This week, coming up against a poor Dragons right edge defence, Farnworth could once again prove the difference in this matchup. Of note, in his two games for the Dolphins against the Dragons, Farnworth has not managed to cross the stripe.
Don’t Look Now, But Are the Dragons Forwards Elite?
The Dragons were last seen on Friday night football in round 13, as they dismantled the Knights without Kalyn Ponga at home, winning 20-6. Kyle Flanagan seems to have taken over at 7, and with two wins in a row following a tight one-point loss to the high-flying Warriors, it’s hard to ignore the Dragons’ form. The Dragons’ middles were dominant last week against the Knights, with Klemmer (175m) and Couchman (164m) both rolling through the middle with ease, whilst they also benefitted from solid stints from Lawrie (142m) and De Belin (131m). If the Dragons can continue to see this effort from their big forwards, it will be much easier for the likes of Flanagan and Gutherson to play off the back of it.
Dolphins vs Dragons Recent History
The teams have met on four occasions since the Dolphins’ inception two years ago, with both teams having two wins apiece, and the home side winning on each occasion. Last year, the team’s first met in round 2 at Kayo Stadium, with the Dragons closing 1.5-point road favourites, with a total of 46.5. It was a tight first half, with the Dolphins leading 10-0 at the break. The second half though was all the road team, as the Dolphins ran in five unanswered tries to win 38-0.
The teams met again in round 17 at Jubilee Stadium, with the Dragons the matchup closing as a pick em’, and a total of 51.5. Once again it was a tight first half, with the Dolphins leading 6-2 after a late Tesi Niu try, however this time the Dragons dominated the second half, scoring five unanswered tries to run away with the game, winning 26-6.
Points To Be at A Premium for This Clash
The Dolphins opened 3.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 4.5-point favourites. This number seems about right to me, with my fair spread 5.5. Whilst I would lean towards the Dolphins in this one, they haven’t covered all season as favourites, whilst the Dragons have covered 4 of 7 as underdogs.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 47.5 before being bet up to 48.5. I can’t say I agree with this move, and I like the under in this matchup, with my fair total sitting at 44. The Dolphins have been a heavy unders team this season, going under on 8 occasions in their 12 games. Whilst the Dragons haven’t quite been as heavy toward the unders this year, they still have more unders this season, as they have gone under on 6 occasions in 11 games. Both games last year went under the closing totals, and I believe this will be another under.
Under 48.5 Points
$1.91 (2 Units)
Dolphins vs Dragons Player Prop Bet: Farnworth to the Fore
Our Best Player Prop: Herbie Farnworth 1+ Try
As already mentioned, Herbie Farnworth has scored in each of his last seven games, and I see no reason to bet against it happening for an eighth straight game. The Dragons have conceded half their tries this season on their right edge, exactly where Farnworth will be targeting. Just bet it and double your money here guys.
Herbie Farnworth 1+ Try
$2.10 (1 Unit)
Dolphins vs Dragons Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Under 48.5 – As above, the under is the play here.
Leg 2: H Farnworth (1+ try) – All in on Herbie to score on Friday night.
Leg 3: C Tuipulotu (1+ try) – The Big Dragons’ winger is back from injury, and whilst I don’t like backing players fresh off injury concerns, Tuipulotu has been an absolute try scoring freak this season, scoring seven tries in five games.
Same Game Multi Odds: $9.50 at Dabble
Dolphins vs Dragons Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday, 6th June
Location: Suncorp Stadium – Brisbane
Time: 8:00pm AEST
Weather: Fine, 16 degrees
Odds: Dolphins ($1.55) vs Dragons ($2.45)
Line: Dolphins (-5.5)
Points: 47.5
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Where to Watch Dolphins vs Dragons
Watch the Dolphins vs Dragons match on Channel 9, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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