Game: Carlton Vs. North Melbourne (Friday, July 19th at 7.50pm – Etihad Stadium)
Market: Carlton Blues +5.5 ($1.91) Vs. North Melbourne -5.5 ($1.91) at Luxbet
It's Friday Night Football in Melbourne and Etihad Stadium will play host to North Melbourne v Carlton. For two teams out of the Eight this should be a very exciting game. Both teams are the under-achieving children of the AFL.
The 'Mighty' Carlton Blues have maybe set their sights too high this season and North Melbourne have at times spent their four points at Half time. So how do we handicap two under-achievers? Let’s take a look at some stats.
-Round 16 Last year North Melbourne beat Carlton 149 to 96 @ Etihad Stadium
-North Melbourne has won 8 of the last 10 against Carlton
-This year North Melbourne are: 8-7 ATS
-This year Carlton are: 5-10 ATS
(For those of you new to handicapping ATS = at the spread, basically whether they covered the LINE or not )
-When North Melbourne have been a Favorite they are: 4-4 ATS
-When Carlton have been the Underdog they are: 2-4 ATS
One thing that stands out this season is how many times Carlton start as a Favorite - 9 of 15 times. Public perception and also over-valuing from the bookmakers might be reasons why we are seeing such lop-sided ATS numbers for the blues, but the fact is 66.6% of the time you put your money on Carlton ( at the line) you LOSE.
North Melbourne have not been a LOCK by any means, but they are a much Healthier 50/50 when they start as favorites. This gives North a 16.6% advantage in that category.
When Carlton has beat a top '12' side this year, they have had big outputs by players such as: Robinson,Walker, Carazzo and Murphy. Well Robinson has just not been the same since the concussion. Walker has dropped off and Carazzo seems completely out of sorts. The captain Marc Murphy has been named to play but a corked thigh/gluteus will keep him from his best. All I am seeing is negatives. Did I mention Jarrad Waite is still out? Arguably Carlton’s most important player. Behind every cloud is a silver lining and that silver lining is Chris Judd, but sadly gone are the days where Juddy can turn and win a game off his own boot.
In my opinion North Melbourne are an all-round better team. Solid in Defense. Solid Midfield and a great foward structure with the likes of Drew Petrie, Boomer Harvey, Aaron Black and tonight’s inclusion, Lindsay Thomas. Robbie Tarrant was also a big hand full (4 goals) against Richmond a fortnight ago.
VERDICT: Last week would have really hurt North, especially after such an impressive victory the week before. I see North Melbourne winning comfortably in a high scoring affair. The line has moved out to -6.5 on Sportsbet and the money has been shifted at the TAB. Check out Luxbet where you can get -5,5 on North Melbourne.
Take note: The above tip is simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
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