AFL Round 12 continues on Friday night with an absolute blockbuster between Collingwood and Hawthorn at the MCG. Both clubs have premiership aspirations in 2025 and get to test themselves against a fellow contender under the bright lights!
We bring you our full match preview, best bet, prop bet, and Same Game Multi for the Magpies vs Hawks below, and if you’re keen to tail our tips, consider joining Dabble for great odds!
Collingwood vs Hawthorn Prediction & Tips: 2025 AFL Round 12
Relief for Magpies, Guns Return
Collingwood enters this highly anticipated clash in blistering form, sitting proudly atop the AFL ladder with a commanding 9-2 record and the league's most formidable percentage of 132.9. Their recent performances have been imposing, underscored by a comprehensive 45-point triumph over North Melbourne in Round 11, even while managing existing injuries and late withdrawals. The Magpies' prospects for this Friday night encounter at the MCG are significantly boosted by the confirmed return of five crucial players: captain Darcy Moore (shoulder), dynamic forward Bobby Hill (personal reasons), veteran Steele Sidebottom (managed), elite midfielder Scott Pendlebury (illness), and crafty forward Lachie Schultz (concussion). This influx of talent, experience, and leadership is a daunting prospect for any opposition and signals Collingwood's intent to solidify their premiership favouritism.
Hawks Yet to Take a Scalp
Hawthorn, currently holding a respectable 6th position on the ladder with a 7-4 record, presents an interesting challenge. Their recent form guide shows three consecutive wins followed by two losses (WWWLL). The victories came against Melbourne (currently 11th), Richmond (16th), and West Coast (18th). While the win over the Demons was a solid performance, their other recent successes were against teams struggling at the lower end of the ladder. More tellingly, their last two outings resulted in defeats to genuine top-four contenders Brisbane (2nd) by 33 points and Gold Coast (3rd) by 8 points. These results raise questions about the Hawks' ability to consistently match it with the competition's elite, a test they will undoubtedly face against the ladder-leading Magpies.
Key Stats That Matter
Collingwood has demonstrated midfield ascendancy this season, boasting an average clearance differential of +3.5 per game, while Hawthorn has found themselves slightly behind in this crucial area with a -1.2 differential. In terms of on-field pressure, the Magpies have also been marginally more active, averaging 175 pressure acts compared to the Hawks' 168. This territorial advantage is reflected in scoring sources; Collingwood generates an average of 32.5 points from stoppages and a significant 45.8 points from turnovers. Hawthorn, while competitive, trails in these areas, securing 28.0 points from stoppages and 40.1 points from turnovers per game. Recent history between the clubs is evenly poised, with the last four encounters split at two wins apiece. However, Hawthorn claimed a dominant victory in their most recent clash, winning by 56 points late last season.
Who Gets the Chocolates? Here’s our Collingwood vs Hawthorn Tip
Despite Hawthorn's plucky recent history against them, the Magpies should have the decisive edge in this contest and are well-placed to cover the -8.5 spread. The sheer quality and impact of the returning Collingwood players cannot be overstated. Moore's presence will fortify their defence, Pendlebury and Sidebottom add class and experience to the midfield, while Hill and Schultz provide significant X-factor and goal-scoring prowess up forward. This massive injection of talent, combined with Collingwood's dominant current form, and Hawthorn's recent struggles against top-tier opposition, points towards another Magpies victory.
Collingwood –8.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Collingwood vs Hawthorn Player Prop Bet: Watson the Wizard
Our Best Player Prop: Nick Watson 2+ Goals
Nick Watson (Hawthorn) was extremely quiet against the Lions last weekend, but he’s still very early on in his career so we’re happy to forgive one bad game. Prior to last week, Watson had kicked 2+ goals in seven straight matches at the MCG which is no surprise considering the size of the ground allows him more space to operate. The Wiz also had three straight weeks of 2+ goals before playing the Lions, and he kicked three goals in his only matchup with the Magpies so far in his young career. All signs point towards Watson hitting the scoreboard on Friday night.
Nick Watson 2+ Goals
$2.25 (1 Unit)
Collingwood vs Hawthorn: Same Game Multi
Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals: He’s in seriously good form right now kicking 3 bags of 5+ goals over the past five weeks. Elliott is averaging 2.5 goals per game across the season and will be busy again on Friday night.
Josh Daicos 25+ Disposals: Plays his best footy at the MCG and has had 30+ disposals at the venue in 3 of his last 4 matches there. We’ll be safer and take the 25+.
Nick Daicos 25+ Disposals: Also plays his best footy at the MCG and loves the big stage of the Friday night time slot. Had 38 disposals this week and should get to at least 25 with ease here.
James Sicily 20+ Disposals: Loves this matchup with the Magpies. He’s had 20+ disposals in each of his last 8 games against them and is great value.
Collingwood vs Hawthorn Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday, 30th May
Time: 7:40pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Weather: 15 degrees, light rain
Odds: Collingwood ($1.58) vs Hawthorn ($2.40)
Line: Collingwood -8.5
Points: 171.5
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Where to Watch Collingwood vs Hawthorn?
Watch the Magpies vs Hawks match on Channel 7, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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