The 2023 AFL season reaches its climax this Saturday when Collingwood and Brisbane do battle in the Grand Final! It’ll be a packed house at the MCG and if this finals series is anything to go by, then we should be in for a cracking contest. We bring you our free preview, data tools, best bet, and Same Game Multi for the 2023 AFL Grand Final below!
Also, if you're a punter that likes to get involved in the First Goal Scorer market on Grand Final day, make sure to check out Picklebet. Place a First Goal Scorer bet with them and if your player kicks the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd goal of the match, you'll get paid out as a winner! Max bet $10.
2023 AFL Grand Final Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Brisbane
Saturday 2:30pm AEST, September 30th, MCG
No stranger to making Grand Final’s, Collingwood will be hoping to improve on their record in the big dance this Saturday. This is the sixth year they’ve made the Grand Final since the turn of the millennium, but they’ve triumphed on only one occasion (2010 vs St Kilda) and it took them two cracks that year.
The Magpies recorded a one-point win against GWS in the first Preliminary Final last weekend, reversing the result from last year’s loss against Sydney at the same stage. It was a fitting way for them to earn their place in the final two considering many of their wins over the past two seasons have been by remarkably close margins.
It’s not all sunshine and rainbows for the Magpies however, as they’ve been forced into two changes from the side that toppled the Giants. Key forward Dan McStay suffered a knee injury and is unavailable for selection, so too is vice-captain Taylor Adams who’s succumbed to a hamstring injury.
Finally making it back to the big dance in 2023 is Brisbane. They’ve been desperately close to featuring on the last day for a number of seasons now but finally managed to get over the last hurdle. This is Brisbane’s first Grand Final appearance since 2004 when they lost to Port Adelaide in their attempt at an historical four-peat.
The Lions looked rusty in the first quarter of their Preliminary Final against Carlton, potentially due to the extra week they had off. They fell behind by five goals but managed to wrestle back momentum in the second quarter and dominate the game from that point onwards.
Jack Payne was one of their regular starting 22 members that was unable to play last weekend but could be in line for a return in the Grand Final. His replacement against the Blues was Darcy Gardiner who ended up playing a fantastic role, keeping Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow to one goal and only eight disposals.
Match prediction: These sides met twice during the home and away season and interestingly it was Brisbane who got the chocolates on both occasions. They won their first clash at home in Round 3 by a comfortably 33 points (116-83) and backed it up with a win at Marvel Stadium in Round 23 by 24 points (124-100).
The Lions have now won six straight meetings with the Magpies, although it’s important to note that none of them were at the MCG where the Lions struggles have been well documented. Under coach Chris Fagan, the Lions have won only once at the MCG from 11 attempts.
There are some intriguing form lines in this matchup and knowing which one to follow is certainly not easy. On one hand we have Collingwood who have won 13/16 matches at the MCG this season, while on the other we have Brisbane who have dominated the H2H count, but can’t buy a win at the ‘G.
If there’s one thing we can just about count on, it’s that there won’t be a runaway winner in this year’s Grand Final. Our computer model (see above) backs that up and has Collingwood winning by two points. That brings into play the Tri-Bet markets, where we’ll be backing in either team to win by 19 points or less.
Either Team by 19 Points or Less
$2 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The easiest way to place your Same Game Multi is to click on the BoomBet BetShare banner below! This will add our SGM selections straight into your BoomBet bet slip! You can then enter how much you wish to wager and with one click, your bet has been placed!
Bobby Hill 1+ Goals – Has kicked a goal in each of his last seven matches including three in the Qualifying Final. He remains solid value and goes in our multi.
Cam Rayner 1+ Goals – Struggled to get involved last week but had kicked six goals in the three weeks prior. Usually thrives in big games and they don’t get any bigger than this.
Jordan De Goey 25+ Disposals – Was enormous last week with 34 disposals and 13 clearances. You can expect him to be in the thick of it again on Saturday.
Hugh McCluggage 20+ Disposals – Had 11 straight games of 20+ disposals before a quiet game last weekend. He has increased odds this week as a result and goes in our multi.
SGM Odds: $4.75 at BoomBet
