Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Blue Diamond Stakes Day at Caulfield on Saturday, February 17th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail out 3m. We have a triple-header of Group 1’s with the Blue Diamond flanked by the Futurity Stakes and Oakleigh Plate.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 23 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Caulfield and Rosehill Tim is keenest to bet into! Alternatively, you can find out Rosehill Racing Tips here.
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 #7 Samovare $4.70
Best Value: Race 4 #1Counterplay $9.00
RACE 1
Tricky race to start the day because we have two Team Williams horses resuming from a spell and it’s anyone’s guess as to how fit they’ll be for this. It’s not rare to see the Williams camp send these kinds of horses around for just one run during the Autumn, before putting them back out for the Spring, in which case, they’ll be wound up to win here. But on the other hand, they could be targeting Group 1 races in Melbourne and Sydney so they may have improvement to come. I’ll be backing both Williams horses here, because if they’re fit enough, they’ve got the class edge to win. That’s (1) Almandin at $4.20 and (2) Homesman at $8.50. Almandin turned up first up last preparation and put in an enormous run over this distance at Moonee Valley under 61kg. Therefore the 60kg is no worry here. Should sit midfield from the good gate, D Oliver is a positive booking and he’s won his only start at the track. The stable has instructed Stewards that Homesman will lead, which is a very positive sign for me and tells me he could be wound up to win. He’s first up here and having his first run in Australia. He’s been gelded during his time away from the track. Last time he raced was in an American Group 1 over this distance, and he was an Irish Group 3 winner last prep over this distance. He’s got the class, and once again the booking of Ben Melham is a positive. Only a 4YO so could be a serious horse. (4) Gallic Chieftain was an eye-catching run last start but his second up record is poor and he’s been a money-muncher in his last five starts. (9) Bedford steps up massively in class but the horse is flying. (8) Golden Mane has never missed a place at the track and distance so should be thereabouts. (5) Goldstream was backed off the map last start which indicates he’s ready to win.
TIP: (1) Almandin / (2) Homesman EW
RACE 2
Top two in the market look hard to beat here, but the concern is both map poorly with just a moderate tempo expected in the race. Regardless, I’ve got (1) Astoria on top after a solid first up effort to finish 3rd in the G2 Autumn Stakes, despite sitting three-wide without cover. Has a good second up record, will relish the rise in distance and the stable is flying at the moment, even in Melbourne! (3) Mr So And So finished 2nd in that Autumn Stakes, 1.25L ahead of Astoria, but he had a softer run and was second up from a spell compared to Astoria who was first up. He’s hit the line well in both starts this prep and is a strong winning chance. (5) Valiant Spirit looks to get an uncontested lead here so rates as a place chance at big odds. (8) Relson started a very short priced favourite first up but took an eternity to wind up, suggesting the step up to 1800m will really suit here. Backing Astoria, saving Mr So And So.
TIP: (1) Astoria
RACE 3
Another competitive race. (1) Overshare is on top for me at $4.20. Improved significantly last start when sitting three-wide the trip and only being run down late by a very smart horse in Cliff’s Edge. Won third up last preparation and should be very competitive once again. The value in the race could be (7) Plutocracy, who returns to Melbourne after a good first up run in Adelaide. The key with this horse is that there looks to be very good speed in the race, and he should get a nice run behind that tempo. He’s one of only two or three horses that will sit off the speed, so if they overcook it look for him late. Williams goes back on and $13 is worth a play. (4) Piracy is another Godolphin galloper that’s first up from a spell and gets the run of the race from gate 4. Will have every chance with Kerrin McEvoy on board. (6) I Did It Again is a horse I like but I think he’s way under the odds at $5 here. (5) Albumin an interesting runner for Gerald Ryan, who wouldn’t bring him down if he couldn’t win. Will he go forward for back in the run?
TIP: (1) Overshare / (7) Plutocracy EW
RACE 4
Keen on (1) Counterplay here, who is second up after resuming in Adelaide. Think she’s over the odds at $9 here because she’s a very talented filly that’s capable of winning this. She was a bit unlucky not to win a race or two last preparation and from barrier 4 here she’ll get a lovely run in the race. Dom Tourneur comes across to ride her and I think she’s a good each way bet at the odds. She’ll be my only play in the race. (2) Smart Coupe comes out of a hot race where she was very unlucky, but she’s short enough as the favourite for the race. Expect her to sit much further forward in the run today. (6) Summer Sham could lead or box seat from barrier 1 and she’s done nothing wrong in her first two starts. This is a competitive race to be tackling at her third career start. (7) Earth Angel will be hitting the line very hard but is being set for the AJC Oaks. (8) See Me Exceed drawn awkwardly but should be competitive. Keen on a big each way bet on Counterplay at $9/$3.10.
TIP: (1) Counterplay EW
RACE 5
Very keen on (7) Samovare here. She’s a very talented mare that should run a very big race fresh here. First up last preparation she ran 2nd to Pedrena which is good form, and has a win over Spanish Reef, who returned with a bang last weekend. I’ve got some serious queries over the short-priced favourite (1) Silent Sedition, so with Samovare’s good draw and Damien Oliver booked for the ride, I’ve got her clearly on top at $4.70. Silent Sedition went down as the short-priced favourite first up and they’ve thrown the blinkers on for the first time today. Is that a move out of desperation? The step up to 1400m second up from a spell is likely to suit her, but I thought she could have done more first up and I’ll be avoiding the short price again today. The value could be (4) Wheal Leisure. She’s first up and 1400m is well short of her best distance, but she’s undefeated fresh and is a classy mare. $26 looks over the odds for mine. (9) Jester Halo was flying before finishing second last in the G1 Orr Stakes last start. Back in grade and drawn soft. (6) Flippant will be thereabouts but has been very costly.
TIP: (7) Samovare / (4) Wheal Leisure EW
RACE 6
The Group 1 Futurity Stakes. Favourites have a great record in this race, but did the market overreact to the run of (3) Brave Smash in the Orr Stakes? The stable were saying he wouldn’t quite measure up to the likes of Tosen Stardom before that race, so it will be interesting to see how he performs here. He’s certainly short enough at $3.60. (1) Tosen Stardom is the big query runner. He was murdered first up in the Orr, and the stable said the run took quite a bit out of him. Damian Lane jumps onto (3) Humidor here and Ben Allen takes over on Tosen Stardom – does that indicate that he’s not quite at his peak for this? I’ll be saving on him at $5.50 but can’t have him on top. (10) Mighty Boss goes on top for me. He was luckless (like many others) in the Orr Stakes and maps to get a great run from barrier 3 here. I think he’s come back super this prep and $6 looks a reasonable price. (11) Showtime ran home well into 2nd first up behind Trapeze Artist, and that’s a very good formline to bring down to Melbourne. He’ll get back from barrier 10 which sets him a big task, but he looks capable of winning this at $8. I was with (9) Shillelagh first up in the Orr and she ran home well enough from the back of the field. I wasn’t expecting her to be that far back, so from barrier 11 it’s guaranteed she will once again go back. That makes it tough to win, but her second up record is outstanding and at the $12 I have to have something on again. (6) Mr Sneaky has an outstanding third up record and can be very competitive. Hard race – Mighty Boss on top, with Shillelagh and Showtime next.
TIP: (10) Mighty Boss / (9) Shillelagh EW
RACE 7
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RACE 8
The Group 1 Oakleigh Plate, and isn’t this an open race! With that said, I think if (2) Russian Revolution turns up at his best, he’ll be awfully hard to beat here. He’s undefeated from three first up runs, including a win in the Group 1 The Galaxy and the Group 2 McEwen Stakes. He’s undefeated at the distance and has won his only start at this track. Comes into barrier 9 after scratchings and given he’s a 4YO, we might have yet seen the best of him! Taking $5. (17) Catchy will be out to end the recent drought of 3YO’s in this race, and I think she’s the best chance of the three 3YO’s in the race. She’s a high-class filly and has a terrific record at this track and distance. Obviously carries a very light weight and looks to be drawn perfectly to launch late. The hot tempo will really suit her. (8) Snitty Kitty was rolled first up from a spell but I believe she’ll be right at her top for this. This is the race they’ve targeted all along and if she can find the front and get a little breather, she’ll be hard to run down. The problem is there looks to be plenty of speed in the race and she’s drawn very wide. I wouldn’t be dismissing (4) Hellbent for Weir at $14, with blinkers going back on. His second up record is poor but Weir will have targeted this race. Also giving a chance to (15) Glenall at $21. He looks the value in the race. First up here but has run some very good races in Sydney and has a great first up record. (11) Bons Away another with a chance, while (7) Savanna Amour could be the blowout. Taking on (16) She Will Reign here. I thought she could have done more first up.
TIP: (2) Russian Revolution
RACE 9
Nice little race. (1) Hartnell won the G1 Orr Stakes first up from a spell but had the absolute run of the race and had about five or six hard luck stories in behind him. He’ll get a sweet run once again but I’ll be taking him on with the synthetic hoof filler today. There’s three I’m backing here – one in the market and two at odds. (2) Gailo Chop goes on top. He bolted in first up and he’s won four of his seven races when second up from a spell. He could either lead or sit outside the leader here and he’ll prove awfully hard to run down. (6) Harlem produced an elite performance second up over 2000m last preparation. He was solid first up behind Gailo Chop and will be suited by the step up in distance. Barrier 1 and Kerrin McEvoy on, I think he’s a great price at $10. (5) Lord Fandango looks a nice bit of value at $16. He ran 3rd behind Gailo Chop and Harlem first up and is much better second up as his record would show. Up in distance a big plus – still needs further but may be good enough. Over the odds in my opinion. Taking on both (9) Single Gaze and (10) Abbey Marie.
TIP: (2) Gailo Chop / (6) Harlem / (5) Lord Fandango
QUADDIE
1, 3, 6, 9, 10, 11
1, 2, 11, 13, 15, 16
2, 4, 8, 11, 15, 17
2, 5, 6
$100 = 15.43%
