Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Hobartville Stakes Day at Rosehill on Saturday, February 17th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail out 6m. The Group 2 Hobartville Stakes headlines the card in what looks to be one of the races of the Autumn.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 23 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Caulfield and Rosehill Tim is keenest to bet into! Alternatively, you can find out Caulfield Racing Tips here and our full preview of the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes here.
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 3 #7 Estijaab $2.75
Best Value: Race 5 #9 Girl Sunday EW $14
RACE 1
Good edition of the Highway Handicap to kick things off but I don’t want to be too heavily involved here. (3) Golden Legacy goes on top but not with any confidence. Bolted in by 4.5L back in December when breaking its maiden and backed that up with a sound win fresh off a 66-day break. Comes to town now with Bowman on from a good draw – it remains to be seen whether Bowman is a good thing or bad thing given he won’t be taking any chances with Winx in his mind. (1) She Knows has won a Highway Handicap in the past and resumes here from a three-month spell. Blake Shinn goes on – another jockey I can’t be confident with at the moment. Went very close in a 1000m Highway Handicap first up last preparation so should be giving this a big shake. (4) Try A Lil Harder was heavily backed in a Highway last start. Draws soft here and could atone for its defeat. (2) Camillo is first up here after posting two dominant wins last prep, but I thought his trial leading into last preparation was much better than his trial leading into this preparation.
TIP: (3) Golden Legacy
RACE 2
This is a very smelly race in that we could see something pop up from nowhere. (1) Show A Star has won his past two starts and I’ve been on both times so no reason to jump off here. There is some concern that the opposition he’s been facing wasn’t great and he got a picnic last start, but he’ll be ridden aggressively again and will be there to win. Wouldn’t want the price any shorter but he’ll likely drift out to $4 in my opinion. (6) Pelethronius is nearing another win. He’s third up here and he’s undefeated from two previous third up runs, and he drops from 59kg to 53kg. Draws barrier 1 which is probably a positive for him and could go close at $7. (8) Nat King Cu is another that will be ridden aggressively and gets a huge jockey change here. Firstly he drops from 59kg to 53kg and secondly Brenton Avdulla takes over from Rachel King. Third up stats are very strong and he is a good each way chance. (3) Cellarman is flying but I just can’t back Blake Shinn with any confidence at the moment. (4) Tangled first up over 1500m terrifies me because he’s a good horse. Watch the market – if he’s solid or gets any market support he could go very close.
TIP: (1) Show A Star / (6) Pelethronius EW
RACE 3
Nice little race in the lead up to the Golden Slipper here. I was very keen on (7) Estijaab on debut and she didn’t let me down, powering away to bolt in by 4L. Draws barrier 1 here so expect her to go straight to the lead again and she’ll be awfully hard to catch. Don’t be surprised to see her a legitimate Golden Slipper contender following this race. Locking in $2.75. (4) Sunlight has had a faultless preparation, with three big wins at the Gold Coast, including the Magic Millions 2YO race. She now comes to Sydney where she meets some legitimate opposition, but she’s fresh from a 42-day break and Tony McEvoy has said she will improve off the run for the Golden Slipper in two weeks’ time. (1) Neutrality looks a smart colt for the Snowden stable and is certainly capable of measuring up. (5) Gongs is undefeated but Estijaab had her covered in a recent trial.
TIP: (7) Estijaab
RACE 4
Very competitive race. Keen to have something on (7) Acqume here at $8.50/$2.60. That looks a good each way price for a 1x3 bet. She looks to have come back super this prep and ran a bold race first up behind She Will Reign. She won second up last preparation and I have a few knocks on some of these horses which leaves her as a strong chance. (8) Pendeloque is third up now and that’s where I tend to jump off Gerald Ryan horses. They’re best when they’re fresh. Though she’s had 42 days off, there’s a small question about the strength of that form. (4) Trekking and (6) Marsupial are both first up here as geldings. Both have trialled well – albeit very differently – in the lead up to this and should get god runs throughout the race. Very wary of both horses for the in-form Godolphin stable. (3) Teaspoon is first up off a very long spell, while (2) I Am Excited has trialled well but I can’t catch the trainer nor the jockey.
TIP: (7) Acqume EW
RACE 5
Found this race tough to assess. Gone with (2) Foxplay on top but only tentatively because her recent trials were very ordinary. The only solace I take from it is she trialled similarly last preparation and came out first up and nearly beat Winx, so I’m hoping she repeats that. Waller seemed to indicate that she’s really sharpened up since her trials so if she runs to her best she’d be hard to beat here. Bowman rides – again, not sure if that’s a good thing from barrier 3. Think there’s two at value that have to be included. (9) Girl Sunday was incredibly ordinary last preparation but has trialled well leading into this preparation and we know that she’ll be ready to go first up with Gerald Ryan as her trainer. 1300m is short of the best distance for a lot of these horses, so if she finds the front she could be tough to catch at $14. (8) Insensata is perfectly suited here third up over a track and distance she relishes so should be thereabouts from the good draw.
TIP: Foxplay / (9) Girl Sunday EW
RACE 6
Very keen to bet here. Only three I’m interested in. (4) Singing has been dominant in winning his past three starts, and he gave a belting to some horses with decent Sydney metropolitan form last start, so the form isn’t legless. Draws well here and looks very hard to beat despite dropping back from 2100m to 1900m. Locking in $3.10. The value in the race looks to be (11) Lord Kingsley, who I give a sneaky chance to at $21. This horse has a good first up record with two wins from four starts, and the fact he’s had two 1200m trials on his way to a first up start over 1900m suggests they’ve targeted this. Has a great record at this track, draws well and gets in light. Saving on (9) Carzoff at $4.50. He’s flying and looks a strong chance once again.
TIP: (4) Singing / (11) Lord Kingsley EW
RACE 7
The Hobartville Stakes could be one of the best races all Autumn. It’s hard to go against (3) Kementari here after his explosive first up win which really stamped him as one of the best three-year-olds in the country. Stepping up to 1400m should only see him improve further and if he repeats what he did first up he’ll win. (9) D’Argento is the horse we haven’t really got to the bottom of yet and we don’t quite know how good he is. He resumed from a spell with a solid win over Shumookh, who then ran 2nd to Alizee. D’Argento will be better second up and up to 1400m as well, and gets the run of the race from barrier 4. Worth something small at the each way odds, and we could get an even better price than the $8 on offer come race time. I’m terrified of taking on (2) Trapeze Artist who was very good when winning first up over 1200m. The last time he raced over 1400m he won the Golden Rose by over 4L. Draws well and will be ahead of Kementari in the run so he’ll certainly give the Godolphin horse something to chase. (4) Pierata has had an outstanding preparation but might need to go to another level to beat these.
TIP: (3) Kementari / (9) D’Argento EW
RACE 8
Absolutely hate this race as it’s so wide open. Two I’ve narrowed it down to in the form of (11) Hieroglyphics and (13) Perizada. Hieroglyphics resumed with a good 2nd first up when I backed it at good odds and up to the 1100m suits second up here. She’s got a great record at this distance and the wide barrier is no concern in a big field like this. Each way odds again today at $9. Perizada resumed with a win in Canberra, which I’d normally totally dismiss for this, but she was first up, carried 61kg, had a 3kg apprentice on board, and travelled three-wide without cover at the back fo the field. Drawn better here, down in the weights, Tim Clark goes on board, and ran 2nd in Group 3 company over 1200m at the end of last prep. $10 available and could go close. Several other chances in an open race.
TIP: (11) Hieroglyphics EW / (13) Perizada EW
RACE 9
Another competitive but uninspiring race with an open market. Interested in (10) Up ‘N’ Rolling first up here at $8. Despite this being well short of his best distance, I don’t think this is a crack field and he might just be able to sprint too well fresh for them. He bolted in first up last prep and although it was over 1550m, he might be able to get into the money if he sprints that well today. I think (6) Dagny needs longer and took all preparation to win one last time in, so I’ll be risking her. (2) Lofty’s Menu is knocking on the door and gets a weight swing on (7) Bratislava but his third up record isn’t that great and I’d be tipping the Godolphin horse to beat it again. (3) Wild ‘N’ Famous will be around the mark. Small each way bet on Up ‘N’ Rolling to round out the card. Include (4) Jaminzah in the quaddie.
TIP: (10) Up ‘N’ Rolling EW
QUADDIE
4, 9, 11
2, 3, 4, 9
3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13
2, 3, 4, 7, 10
$100 = 23.8%
