Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, April 11th.
All the attention will be on Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick, which is packed with another FOUR Group 1s - the Australian Oaks, Sydney Cup, Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Coolmore Legacy. You can find our preview and betting tips for Randwick here.
At Caulfield, we have a nine-race card with the track rated a Soft 5 and the rail in the True position. The G3 Easter Cup and G3 Victoria Handicap headline the program.
Check out our race-by-race preview and bettin tips for the meeting below!
Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, April 11th
Best Bet: Race 3 - (6) Heyington Station
Best Value: Race 8 - (11) Manolo Blahniq / (13) Hang Man
My top two selections for his race have been scratched this morning so I'm left scratching my head a bit, but (10) Diala remains in the race and looks a reasonable each way price at $8.00. She's trained by Team Hawkes and she jumped out nicely on two occasions at Flemington, showing good speed in the first to lead before they took a sit and gave her a very easy time of things in her second. She looks flexible tactically but I'd prefer to see her up on speed at Caulfield. (7) Land Of The Brave spaced his rivals in his recent jumpout at Flemington and he's another who showed good speed. If he finds the front he'll take some catching.
Competitive race but I think there's a couple horses I'm keen to highlight here. (2) Prophet's Thumb started $5.00 first up in the Hareeba Stakes behind Diamond Effort but could only manage an 8th-placed finish, beaten 3L. It's notable that she put in a similar run first up last preparation before coming out and winning second up over this track and distance in this grade. This is her second start for Anthony Freedman, she carries the full 61.5kg but Mark Zahra takes over from Damien Thornton and it would be no surprise to see her come out and win. (4) Beautiful Flyer saluted for us at good odds last start and she comes up a similar price today at $9.50. She sat three-wide the trip at Bendigo and still fought on well to win, and that backed up a terrific first up run in Adelaide. Her record actually suggests she goes even better third up than she does second up, with two wins and two placings from five starts. She won't be caught wide from barrier 1 but that is a tricky barrier given she typically races midfield. She'll need luck, but she's far from hopeless at good odds and I'm sticking with her to get the job done again.
(4) Beautiful Flyer
$9.00
I'm normally very keen to oppose Phillip Stokes runners at Caulfield, he's only had one winner from 28 runners there this season and that was Ancestry last week, but I'm actually backing him here with (6) Heyington Station. A lot of these horses come out of the Mornington Guineas last start but this horse brings a different formline in the form of a race at Moonee Valley. That race was won by Overkill, who is has three wins from four starts. The form out of that race at Moonee Valley has been extremely strong. Wings Of Pastrami ran 2nd, then ran 2nd in Listed company at Morphettville beaten a nose; 5th placegetter Nerone won its next start; 6th placegetter Ocular ran enormous and should have won at Sandown on Wednesday; and 8th placegetter Oasis Girl came out and won at Caulfield last weekend. The major concern here is barrier 10, which will probably see it ridden negatively and that makes life hard at Caulfield. The Ellerton and Zahra stable have a good record at Caulfield, striking at 20% this season. They have two runners here with (5) Zousonic and (8) Debt'n'deficit. Both come out of the aforementioned Mornington Guineas race, where Zousonic ran 3rd beaten 0.2L and Debt'n'deficit ran 5th. Zousonic drew wide and charged home in the clear best splits of the race. She won her maiden race impressively prior to that. Positive draw today and looks a great chance. Debt'n'deficit draws 1 and her first up run behind Talented was very good. Mike Moroney is another trainer with a great record at Caulfield, striking at 21% this season. He has (1) Star Surprise engaged. His run two starts back in the race behind Overkill at Moonee Valley was enormous, but he didn't do much in the Mornington Guineas last start. Draws wide so will be ridden cold and will need to be good.
(6) Heyington Station
$4.20
I originally had Alburq as my best of the day here but it looks like they'll go around on Monday with him as he's been scratched. I'll be keeping my betting to a minimum here but there's a couple at a bit of value we can have somethng on. (2) Morrissy is first up here and has never missed the top two from three starts when first up. He's got a dominant win to his name on a Soft 7 so he should handle today's conditions. He draws well to sit behind a hot speed, has won at the track previously and has some form around some good horses, so he's a decent each way bet at $9.00. (1) Lagerfield normally improves sharply off his first up run so include him at $21. He had genuine excuses first up but his record at this distance is terrific and Thomas Stockdale goes on from the good gate. $21 is a big price.
Value: (1) Lagerfield $21
With Relucent scratched, this looks a two-horse race to me. This is a race with a very long tail. (3) Coin Collector probably should have won last start over 2200m at Bendigo when held up at a crucial stage of the straight before charging home late. He ran a final 200m of 11.82sec and was the only horse in the race to break 12 seconds, so the step up to 2400m looks ideal. (1) Viscosity was the value at $10 but he's now into $5.00. He won over 2000m back in January, then had a six-week break and basically started again over 1600m. He's had two 2000m races leading into this, his last run at The Valley was encouraging and we may see him closer from barrier 2 today. He looks ready to win.
A pretty even race here and hard to be confident. (15) Terbium resumed with a good effort at Bendigo, beaten less than half-a-length. He was undefeated from his first four career starts but didn't really reach those same heights in his second and third preparations. He's been out for a good spell and returned with the best run he's put in for a while now, so perhaps he's come back in better order this prep. He draws barrier 1 to do no work here and he drops from 60.5kg to 56kg. Again, Phillip Stokes' record at Caulfield is the big query but he'll get his chance. (5) Milwaukee could be the value at $14. He's first up today and his first up record is pretty good, with two wins and two placings from six starts. He's got five wins and five placings from 15 starts at this distance, handles good or soft ground, draws well in barrier 3 and comes down to 56kg with the State's best apprentice on. Mike Moroney has his stable flying at the moment and my only query is the jumpout at Flemington leading into this. It was very ordinary, but then I also thought Buffalo River's jumpout was ordinary and he came out and waltzed in last week.
This is one of the most competitive and open race on the card. (9) Salsamor has won four in a row and all have been over 2000m. Tom Stockdale has ridden him in three of those wins and keeps the ride for the Listed race here despite his claim not applying. There looks quite a bit of pace in the race so he should just camp on the back of that speed from barrier 4 and he may well be right in the finish once again at $7.00. (11) Savacool doesn't win out of turn but she brings a different formline to the race having raced in Sydney all prep. She draws barrier 1 here so we should see her ridden positively. Her only prior start at Caulfield was a win. It was only two starts ago that she ran 3rd to the subsequent Doncaster winner Nettoyer.
Again, this is a race where you could make a case for most of the horses in this race. I count 10 winning chances. There's two at big odds that I'll have something on but we will really need the track to be allowing horses to run on from the back of the field. (11) Manolo Blahniq is flying but comes up at $17 here which is a good bet. He warmed up nicely late behind Fabergino down the straight first up, and last start he was given less than no chance at Mornington. I'm not often very critical but it was a dreadful ride. He flew home when the race was all over, beaten just over 2L, and he steps up to 1400m now third up from a spell with Jake Noonan jumping back aboard. He's had six starts over this track and distance for one win and four 2nd placings. The blowout could be (13) Hang Man at $31. He's a 2000m-2400m horse but he did win first up one day over this track and distance and it wouldn't shock me to see him put in a similar performance today the way this stable have their runners going. He'll probably have to come from last but he's got a big finish on him when he's right. Plenty of other chances in a wide-open race.
Two horses I'll be with to close out the day. (2) Guizot is basically an each way bet to nothing every time he lines up over the mile at Caulfield. He's had four starts at this track and distance for three wins and a 2nd, including a win at Listed level two starts back. He just seems to do his best racing here at the moment so disregard his other form. He draws well in barrier 6, gets a useful claim for Teo Nugent and he'll be right around the mark once again at $7.50. (8) Super Titus is a bet at $5.50. He ran 4th in the Echuca Cup first up but he tends to bounce off that first up run into his second up run. He's only placed in two of his seven starts when first up but he's won twice from three starts when second up, including last prep when he sat three-wide the trip over 1700m here at Caulfield in Listed grade. He draws wide again but a repeat performance of that kind would see him win this. Happy to take on the favourite Fidelia who just struggles to win here given her racing pattern. Watch the market with the two Waller horses, (5) So You Win and (6) Kaonic, particularly the latter with Craig Williams booked. He's been below his best his last two preps but if he's firm it will indicate he might be ready to show something again.
