Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday, April 11th.
Day 2 is packed with another FOUR Group 1s - the Australian Oaks, Sydney Cup, Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Coolmore Legacy.
The track is currently rated a Soft 6. There is more rain predicted for Friday but none forecast for race day. I suspect the track will remain in the Soft range, with the rail out 4m.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips below!
Royal Randwick Racing Tips: The Championships Day 2, 2020
Best Bet: Race 4 - (2) Away Game
Best Value: Race 3 - (6) Oakfield Captain
Race 1 - Listed Fernhill Handicap 1600m (Market)
Hard to split these top two in the market. (1) Postcode raced against the A-graders in his first two starts this prep, beaten 2.9L by Mamaragan and then 2.5L by Prague. Prague ran 2nd in the Sires' last weekend, and Mamaragan should have won it. He then went to Hawkesbury for an easy kill, where he waltzed in by more than 3L on the heavy ground. We know he handles the conditions and this is a much easier race than what he contested at the start of the prep. He'll lead and be the one they have to chase down. (2) Untamed won on debut at Canterbury after sitting three-wide the trip, then spelled and returned in G3 company at Rosehill two weeks ago. He ran 2nd to Holyfield on that occasion, which was a decent effort given he was first up at 1400m, even though he did get an ideal run from the inside barrier. He should improve with that run under the belt and up to 1600m. He's bred by Pierro so the distance increase should suit and we know from last start he has no issues with the wet track. He once again should get a good run from barrier 2. The thing we have to toss up is whether he's up to the level that Postcode has shown, and I think he could be, he just hasn't been given the chance. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a market shift with Postcode starting favourite. I think the smokey is the Ciaron Maher/David Eustace horse (9) Grand Slam. He's just had one career start, where he finished 5th at Ballarat, but that wasn't a bad race. Lunar Fox won that and then came out and won the VRC Sires' at Flemigton. He jumps straight from 1200m to 1600 and has had a six-week break between runs, but hasn't had any trials or jumpouts in the mean time. Very sneaky lead in to this race but the stable don't go too bad here.
Value: (9) Grand Slam $16
Race 2 - Listed South Pacific Stakes 1400m (Market)
Two I'm pretty keen to back here. (2) Hilo should have gone very close to winning last start. He was only beaten half-a-length but he said three-wide the trip, then Bowman tried to go inside before coming outside in the straight. His win prior to that was electric. Rachel King goes back on today with Bowman suspended and I'll give him another chance with $6.00 on offer. Ther horse I'm really keen to have something on is (9) Indy Car. He's showed plenty of talent from day one and he resumed with a huge win at Kensington, where he came from last to get up right on the line, running the fastest final 600m of the entire day in the process. The jump from 1100m to 1400m is a small query but he's got a massive finish on him and Anthony Cummings has a good record at Randwick, with a 23% strike rate this season. Don't think the $8.50 will last and that's a great bet. (1) Yao Dash started a well-backed $4.00 chance in the Fireball Stakes first up but ran second last and pulled up with a cut. He can be forgiven for that and on his SP profile, he has to be respected here. (8) Icebath is probably the blowout. She ran midfield beaten less than a length in the Kembla Grange Classic last start and Shout The Bar has come out of that race and won a Group 1 at her next start. $23 looks a big price. Hilo and Indy Car the two for me.
Value: (9) Indy Car $8.50
Race 3 - Provincial Championship 1400m (Market)
(4) Animate hasn't put a foot wrong since going down at short odds first up. He's won all three starts since that and was explosive in winning the Newcaslte qualifier last start. He charged to the front and only really peaked late, but he was dropping back in trip and so the rise back up to 1400m for this looks ideal. Perfect draw, undefeated on wet ground, looks hard to beat. I think the blowout chance in the race at $51 is (6) Oakfield Captain. He sat four-wide the trip first up and then sat three-wide the trip last start when beaten 2.25L by Animate. He gets a 1.5kg weight swing in his favour and more importantly, he draws a gate so he shouldn't be caught wide today. The wet ground is a little negative but he's a huge price given the run he put in last start. (10) Asharani beat home Royal Celebration two starts ago, and that horse has come out and won back-to-back city races. She came from the back of the field to win the Newcastle qualifier last start and should measure up, while (12) Electric Girl has obviously not put a foot wrong recently. She beat Al Ma Haha two starts ago, that horse then ran 2nd in last week's Country Championships Final, and she overcame a wide passage to win the qualifier at Kembla Grange last start. Her only failure this prep is when she took on Flit and co in the Light Fingers Stakes. The Kim Waugh pair can be thrown in at odds.
Value: (6) Oakfield Captain $51
Race 4 - G2 Percy Sykes Stakes 1200m (Market)
If (2) Away Game turns up at her best here, isn't this as good as over? She was absolutely enormous in the Blue Diamond after covering ground on a day where the rail was a Highway, and then she ran 2nd to Farnan in the Golden Slipper last start. Mamaragan was back in 3rd, he should have won the Sires' last week, and that looks by far and away the best form reference of anything in this race. I can't work out why she's $3.60 and not even money? I'm trying to find other horses to make a case for but I can't. The other fillies that contested the Golden Slipper she took care of easily, and the other 'dangers' are horses coming off maiden wins. She is the only out-and-out A-grader here in my opinion and looks the best bet on the card.
Race 5 - G2 Arrowfield Sprint 1200m (Market)
Not sure what (4) Dawn Passage has done wrong to be a $9.50 chance here. He should have won first up, where he ran a luckless 2nd behind (12) California Zimbol, yet California Zimbol is a $7.00 chance and he's $9.50. Admittedly, Waterhouse/Bott enjoy a 25% strike rate at Rosehill, compared to just 10% at Randwick, but I still think he's over his true odds here. California Zimbol looks the hardest to beat and with $7.00 available we can also back her for a good result. She got pushed out three-wide 700m from home last start and found the front quickly, so she did a good job to fight them off. She gets the ideal run from barrier 4 today and I see no reason why she can't be in the finish again. (1) Cosmic Force started favourite for The Galaxy last start so it's no surprise he starts favourite here too. He had his chance first up and he didn't do much last start. He gets the winkers on for the first time today and he's trialled well since that last run, winning his heat by 7L. JMac booked is a positive sign but at the price I'll be taking him on here. If (9) Flit turned up like she did first up, she'd win this, but she's been stretched out to a mile and now drops back to 1200m with the blinkers coming off. Not for me. My two plays will be Dawn Passage and California Zimbol.
Also backing: (12) California Zimbol $7.00
Race 6 - G1 Australian Oaks 2400m (Market)
(4) Colette is the favourite here at around $3.10 but I'll be taking her on. She was an impressive and dominant winner of last weekend's G3 Adrian Knox Stakes but there's a few things to consider here. Firstly, James McDonald jumps off her. He said immediately post-race last week that she would need to go to another level to win the Oaks, and that's backed up by the historical lead ups to this race. Not since Royal Descent back in 2013 has a filly backed up out of the Adrian Knox and won. Mind you, Royal Descent did win the Oaks by 10L that year. In more recent years, it's been the Vinery Stud Stakes and the New Zealand Oaks that have proven superior formlines. There's nothing coming into this from the NZ Oaks this year, so the Vinery looks the race to lean to. (1) Probabeel did a good job to get as close as she did in the Vinery, beaten 0.3L. I think it's a huge positive for her today getting Opie Bosson back aboard after suspension. She draws wide in barrier 12 and we don't really know whether she will stay or not, but she's the classiest horse in the field and that will take her a long way. (2) Shout The Bar hasn't done much wrong and she was the winner of the Vinery. The one big thing she had in her favour that day was the track playing in favour of leaders. This will be a tougher test but she will stay the distance and we know the Vinery is the best form line. (3) Nudge looks the value at $9.50. She loomed up on the inside in the Vinery and looked like she was going to win at the 200m, but just peaked late. The query for her is whether she's going to get the 2400m, but Waller has won the past two Oaks' and JMac goes on her today. Probabeel and Nudge the two for me.
Race 7 - G1 Sydney Cup 3200m (Market)
Found it hard to assess this race. I was with (2) Young Rascal first up but I think the $2.60 quote for him is very skinny. He's carrying 56kg here which history tells us isn't easy to do, and he's never run over 3200m before. I concede this is a very ordinary race and the European stayers are typically better than our locals, but I think he's short enough at that price. The Chairman's Handicap is a good form reference for this race and (9) Angel Of Truth was huge in that race last start. He was backed from double figures into $7 at the jump and he sat three-wide the trip before battling on into 5th. With even luck he would have won that race. With that in mind, along with the fact he carries just 52.5kg here, I think he's a big price at $13. (4) Raheen House was the winner of the Chairman's and I see no reason why he can't win again here. He hit the line really well and comes into this race at a nice stage of his preparation. Drawn well with 54kg, I expect him to go close at $8.00. (1) Mustajeer is the class runner in the race and that's why he's tasked with carrying 57.5kg. He's returned in outstanding order this preparation, winning the Paramatta Cup first up before consecutive placings behind Master Of Wine and Verry Elleegant. The weight is the obvious concern. (5) Gallic Chieftain ran 6th in this race last year. I thought he was very good through the line in the Chairman's last start, indicating he's probably looking for the 3200m now. (13) Corncrake is the big unknown in the race. He's lightly-raced and looks a stayer on the rise but he's stepping up from midweek company to a Group 1 handicap.
Race 8 - G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m (Market)
The more I look at this race, the more I think it's a two-horse race. The only query with (1) Danon Premium is the wet track, and that's only because he's never been on one in his life. With that said, his victory in the Kinki Sho last year was in the rain, however the track was still rated Good at the time. This is an absolute beast of a horse. We've seen how strong the Japanese form is time and time again, most recently with Lys Gracieux in the Cox Plate, and this horse beat her in that Kinko Sho back in March last year. He's got five wins from seven starts when first up from a spell, and his last two first up runs have been a win against Lys Gracieux over this distance, and a 2nd to Almond Eye over this distance. That's about as strong as form gets and if he handles the ground this race could be as good as over. (2) Addeybb is the only horse that can beat him in my opinion. He won the G1 Ranvet Stakes first up, defeating Verry Elleegant, who then went on to win her next start by 4L. The thing about that win is that he was always going to improve second up, so the fact he was able to beat her first up was very impressive. He's got a terrific second up record with three wins and a 2nd from four starts, and the wetter the track the better for him. Last year, he beat Magic Wand by 2.5L second up at this distance, and we saw Magic Wand win at Group 1 level here in Australia during the Spring. Back in October, he split Magical and Deirdre at Royal Ascot in the G1 Champion Stakes. Deirdre is another legitimate Group 1 Japanese horse and Magical ran 5th in the Arc de Triomphe before that, which is probably the best race in the world. So this horse is no hack at all and with the cut out of the ground, he's a huge chance of winning again. Beyond them, (10) Master Of Wine is the new kid on the block and fairly unexposed still. He returned in scary form this prep, with a combined margin of 7L for his two wins. He steps up from G3 company to a G1 for the first time but we haven't got to the bottom of him yet. (12) Verry Elleegant is racing in career best form. She drops back in trip from 2400m to 2000m after posting a 4.3L win in the G1 Tancred Stakes last start. As aforementioned, prior to that she went toe-to-toe with Addeybb, but he just had her measure and I think he has more improvement from that run than what Verry Elleegant does for this, so I can't see her turning the tables. I love (4) Te Akau Shark but the news he's been nursing a bruised heel is a big negative for mine. You don't want any issues leading into a race of this quality, not least issues with a foot. Stablemate (13) Melody Belle should have won the Doncaster and she rarely runs a bad race. One query for her is she's never run a place at Randwick from three attempts. Outrageously good race but I'm happy to go all-in on Danon Premium and Addeybb here. Danon Premium will be my best result but I'll still be making sure I win if Addeybb rolls him.
Race 9 - G1 Coolmore Legacy 1600m (Market)
I think there's four standouts here. (17) Funstar goes on top. She missed a placing for the first time in her career last start when she ran 4th in the Vinery Stud Stakes as the odds-on favourite. We've seen winners of this race in recent years drop back from the 2000m of the Vinery to the 1600m of the Coolmore, namely Alizee and Foxplay. She gets 2.5kg off the rest of the field here and James McDonald gets down to 54.5kg to ride her. She's drawn a bit wide and there is a bit of pace in the race so tactics will be interesting, but if she can bounce back to her best, she's the one to beat. (5) Sweet Deal started favourite in the G2 Emancipation Stakes last start but only managed 5th, beaten 2.5L. Notably, trainer John Thompson has an 18% strike rate here at Randwick compared to just 6.5% at Rosehill, so I suspect she will go much better here than what she did last start, and that's backed up by her first two runs of the campaign at Randwick. $17 is over the odds. (8) Noire is putting the writing on the wall with her recent performances. She had no luck second up, ran 3rd in the Coolmore Classic third up, and then 2nd in the Emancipation last start. She's probably a better horse at Rosehill but she's not hopeless at Randwick. The query is you have to go back to September 2018 for her last win! (13) Amangiri ran 3rd in the Emancipation first up. She's got a terrific record at the mile with three wins from four starts. There does look a bit of pace in the race but she should improve second up today and the Hawkes stable have a good record at Randwick. She's another at $17 which looks value. (9) Positive Peace has won five in a row now after her victory in the Emancipation at Rosehill last start. That track probably suits her better but it's hard to knock her form. Happy to play trifectas with those numbers: 17, 5, 8, 13, 9.
Value: (5) Sweet Deal $17
Race 10 - G2 Sapphire Stakes 1200m (Market)
History tells us it's hard to carry weight and win this race. I think (9) Manicure is a good price here at $10. She ran well first up, beaten a nose by Vegadaze with Kementari back in 3rd. I think that's pretty good form and she's got a terrific second up record, having never missed the top two from three starts. Second up last prep she ran 2nd to Tofane, which has turned out to be Group 1 level form. She's run 2nd in both starts at this track and distance, she gets a soft draw in barrier 2, she handles the ground and looks a really good each way bet. (14) Bangkok is a blowout chance at $20. She was my best value of the day last start where she basically came from last to run 3rd. It was an enormous run and that's typical of her when second up. The query is she can tend not to replicate that sort of run when third up but if she does, she can be right in the finish here at $20. (7) Fasika won in G3 company first up at this track and distance but could only manage 8th in The Galaxy last start. She's better suited here back up to 1200m against the girls. Can make a case for (12) Soothing and (13) Connemara at odds.
