AFL Round 18 begins on Thursday night with a fixture that pits Carlton against Brisbane at Marvel Stadium. The Blues have been getting smashed from pillar to post by the media for a number of weeks now and will be desperate to put in an improved performance, but it certainly won’t be easy against the reigning premier who are eyeing off a top two finish.
Below, we bring you our best bet, player prop, and Same Game Multi for Carlton vs Brisbane, with odds thanks to BetReal - a brand-new Aussie sportsbetting site we think you'll love!
Carlton vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 18
Will the Blues Respond?
The opening game of Round 18 features a clash between Carlton and the formidable Brisbane Lions, a match that starkly highlights the divergent paths of two clubs. Carlton enters this encounter in a state of deep disappointment, with their season having unravelled significantly. Their recent form is particularly concerning, culminating in a substantial loss to fierce rivals Collingwood last weekend. This defeat marked their third consecutive loss, extinguishing any lingering hopes of making the finals this year. The Blues' campaign has been a frustrating one for their supporters, characterised by a consistent inability to convert opportunities and maintain defensive integrity, leaving them well short of their pre-season aspirations and under immense pressure to find some semblance of form.
Lions Flex Their Muscle
In stark contrast, the Brisbane Lions arrive at this fixture brimming with confidence and in excellent touch. Chris Fagan's side showcased their formidable firepower against Port Adelaide last weekend, securing a dominant victory despite a somewhat slow start in the first ten minutes of the game. Once they found their rhythm, the Lions demonstrated why they are considered one of the competition's elite teams, reaffirming their status with a commanding performance. This win extended their winning streak to two games and solidified their position in second spot on the ladder, a testament to their consistent high-level performances throughout the season. The Lions are clearly building significant momentum as they push towards September.
Key Stats and Recent H2H
A deep dive into the key advanced statistics and recent head-to-head encounters between these two clubs paints a clear picture, heavily favouring the visiting Lions. Carlton continues to struggle with fundamental aspects of the game, ranking last in the league for disposal efficiency, indicating significant issues with ball use and execution. Compounding this, they also sit last for turning inside 50s into scores, highlighting their profound inability to capitalise on their forward forays. While they do rank first for contested possessions, this strength is often negated by their poor ball use and scoring inefficiency. Brisbane, on the other hand, excels in crucial contested areas, ranking fifth in the competition for contested possession differential and an impressive first in the league for clearance differential. This midfield dominance allows them to control the flow of the game and create scoring opportunities. Furthermore, the historical head-to-head record heavily favours the Lions, who have won six of their last seven meetings against Carlton, underscoring their consistent superiority over the Blues.
A Lion's Roar – Here's our Carlton vs Brisbane Tip
Considering Brisbane's strong form, their statistical dominance in key areas, and their strong historical record against Carlton, I'm expecting the Lions to cover the -26.5 spread. Carlton's ongoing struggles with efficiency and defensive consistency, combined with Brisbane's powerful midfield and potent forward line, suggest that the Lions will be able to control the game and dominate the scoreboard.
Brisbane –26.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Carlton vs Brisbane Prop Bet
Our Best Player Prop Bet: McCluggage Score Anytime
We were on Hugh McCluggage last week and he didn’t let us down, so we’re going back to the well again on Thursday night at an even bigger price. Hugh has been one of the standout players in the competition in 2025 and has been hitting the scoreboard regularly over the past couple of months. He’s kicked a goal in four straight matches and should get a look or two against the vulnerable Blues.
Hugh McCluggage Anytime Goal Scorer
$2.65
Carlton vs Brisbane Same Game Multi
Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals: Has had a down year but reached 25 disposals last week and I’m expected to stand up with the heat well and truly on him as a leader.
Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals: Has recorded 27 and 25 disposals in his last two games against the Blues and had 29 against the Power last week.
Ollie Hollands 20+ Disposals: Has reached the 20 disposal mark in four of his last five games and had 24 against the Magpies last week.
Carlton vs Brisbane Betting Odds & Match Info
Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Odds: Carlton $4.25 vs Brisbane $1.22
Where to Watch Carlton vs Brisbane?
You can watch Blues vs Lions on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Follow our Carlton vs Brisbane Tips at Dabble!
