Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Canterbury on Wednesday, June 10th.
Racing returns to Canterbury in Sydney on Wednesday, where the track has been playing with a horrible inside/on-pace bias recently. It's set to be a heavy track once again and I'll predominantly be looking for those that will be rails-in-run.
Tim Geers' race-by-race preview and betting tips can be found below!
Canterbury Racing Tips: Wednesday, June 10th
Best Bet: Race 1 - (1) Camerlengo
Value Bet: Race 5 - (6) Meditate
(1) Camerlengo makes his debut today from the Waterhouse/Bott stable with Tim Clark to ride. He's had four trials overall but his two most recent ones are the ones to focus on. He had a tie-back opeation after his first two trials, and following that he's been very good. He's showed sustained speed which is typical of runners from this stable and from barrier 1 he should rail through to lead. The barrier draw is a huge advantage for him because the inside at Canterbury has been on fire recently. (10) Tight Ropes has had two runs and resumes from a spell today. I thought she had some ability but was below par in her first two runs, albeit they were behind some decent horses. She's only had the one trial leading into this which has to be a little query on a heavy 9 track but JMac goes straight on and there has been some money to suggest she'll run well. We also see the debut of Winx's half-sister (6) Covent Garden, and I expect there to be a market move for her. It's certainly an interesting race to watch.
I'll stick with (9) Irish Angel here who can be forgiven for last start where she started $1.80 at Kembla and didn't have much go right. She jumped slowly and then copped a check. She settled towards the back on the rail and just didn't pick up. Notably that was on a heavy 9 so if her poor performance was due to the track conditions, you'd think they would avoid lining up on a heavy 9 again today, so I'm not keen to say she failed to handle the conditions. Her first up run prior to that behind Papal Warrior was good and there's been five subsequent winners out of that race, which was only a month ago, so it's proved to be pretty strong form. That was over this track and distance. Respect the fact she started so short last start and respect the fact she comes to a midweek race in town despite failing. JMac on, she draws barrier 3 so hopefully she can box seat on the fence, as that should prove to be advantageous. There doesn't look to be a great deal of depth to this race so if she repeats her first up run, she'll be the one to beat.
Anything could win this. Once again I'll lean to the runner who will be on the rails in the run which is (5) Lady Highly. She ran 2nd to Milunka over 1550m here last start in similar conditions. She drew barrier 1 on that occasion and draws barrier 1 again today so should get all the favours. The step up in distance will only help as both her wins have been over 2100m. (8) De Valera gets Bowman on today and he's generally very good at reading the pattern of the day, so don't be surrpised to see him stick to the inside from barrier 4. The horse was beaten a long way last start but he was trapped wide and it was worth forgiving. Bowman has a great record riding for John O'Shea with seven winners from 13 runners this season, while O'Shea has a good record at Canterbury too, with a 26% strike rate. It's worth having something on at $13 as one of the two outsiders in the field.
Waller has two runners in the race here with (7) Milunka and (3) Mubariz. Milunka is currently $2.00 but I'm going to go with the second elect Mubariz. It's interesting that James McDonald rode both these horses to last-start victories, but he sticks with Mubariz here, while Hugh Bowman picks up the ride on Milunka. I think the key here is the fact that Mubariz comes into barrier 3 and should find the fence, while Milunka comes into barrier 6 and might struggle to get to the rail. We know Milunka handles the wet and she should improve off that first up run, so she's going to be hard to beat, but at the prices I'm in the corner of Mubariz. (4) Holy Reign comes into barrier 1 and probably leads. He can give a good sight.
This will be a pretty simple two-horse play for me. (7) Lakia looks the horse to beat and is priced accordingly at $2.50. She bolted in here first up last preparation, leading all the way to win by 2.8L. This is obviously a different test for her being on a heavy 9, and there is the query about how good she is in the wet, but she's trialled nicely and shoudl lead here, which makes her very tough to beat. I think the value is clearly (6) Meditate at $9.00. This filly won her first three starts in the bush by big margins. She then ran first up over this track and distance back in December, where she started $5.00 behind Fituese. She led and dropped out to run last. Since that run, she's had throat surgery to correct an airway obstruction, which could explain that poor run. She's had one trial leading into her first up run today, and she'll come into barrier 1, which means she can try and challenge Lakia for the lead, or take the sit behind her on the rail. Either case is good and if the throat op has done the trick, she could be very hard to beat at good odds.
Value: (6) Meditate $9.00
This will be a tactical battle between (8) Lillemor ad (12) Van Giz. They start from the inside two barriers, with Van Giz drawn the rail inside of Lillemor. Tim Clark is booked for Van Giz which suggests to me there's a possibility they might look to lead, but Lillemor led and won here last start so will be keen to find the front again. If she does, Van Giz can pop in behind for a trail but then risks being held up in the small field. The first 200m will tell the story - I think barrier 1 swings things slightly in favour of Van Giz, but if she can't win this then I can't say I'll be in a rush to back her any time soon. She gets every chance given the way I expect the track to play.
