Round 2 of the 2024 Grand Final rematch takes place in the NRL on Friday night, with both teams desperate for victory for their own reasons. The Broncos are currently outside the top 8, and with the midfield being so condensed, desperately need a win to stay in contention for Finals football. Meanwhile, the Panthers need a bounce back after an insipid display last weekend against the Cowboys at home.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
2024 NRL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 5th July, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Broncos were once again down on troops last week, missing Origin players Reece Walsh, Payne Haas, and Pat Carrigan, whilst also still without halfback Adam Reynolds. Even still, coach Kevin Walters had to be upset with his team’s efforts, going down 32-16 to the Warriors in a rather meek display from last year’s Grand Finalists. The Broncos managed just 1195 metres, despite breaking the line five times, whilst making 10 errors. Corey Jensen (185m, 50 tackles) and Martin Taupau (161m, 23 tackles) were the only Brisbane forwards who could hold their head high, in a game which showed the reliance on Haas and Carrigan.
As for the Panthers, they put forth possibly their worst performance of the season, in a 16-6 home loss to the Cowboys. This, despite the Cowboys having two players sent to the sin-bin and the Panthers winning the penalty count 9-4, in an attacking display Ivan Cleary had to be having kittens over. The Panthers were without Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o, Jarome Luai, and Liam Martin post Origin, whilst Isaiah Yeo started off the bench, with all five named to play this week. Nathan Cleary is still at least a fortnight away for the defending Premiers, who will be desperate to have him back.
Match Preview
The first rendition of the Grand Final replay was played back in round 3 at BlueBet Stadium, with the Panthers easily accounting for the Broncos 34-12 after closing 10.5-point home favourites. The Broncos were without both Adam Reynolds and Payne Haas, whilst the Panthers were missing James Fisher-Harris. The Panthers were clinical in attack, despite the stats being quite similar, and were never challenged, running in six unanswered tries in the opening 50 minutes to lead 34-2. Dylan Edwards (309m), and Brian To’o (263m, 12 tackle breaks, 2 tries, 2 line-breaks) were massive for the Panthers and will look to lead from the front again this week.
Speaking of this week, the Panthers opened 2.5-point road favourites prior to last weekend’s results, before re-opening at the same number on Monday morning. Panthers’ money has come into the market, as they now sit heavily juiced 3.5-point favourites, with the number likely to end north of 4. I make the Panthers a 2.5-point favourite, so short of 4 don’t see too much value. If we manage to get to Broncos +4.5 at a decent price, I’ll more than likely bet it.
As for the total, it opened 44.5 and has been bet up to 46.5 at some books, with the under juiced, so not a great deal of movement. I make a fair total 41.5, so do see some value in the under in this game. The Broncos in particular have struggled putting points on the board over the Origin period, with the Panthers also struggling at times with several combinations being used in their spine. With the ability of both these teams’ I won’t be hitting this too hard, but I do like the under. Best to wait until as close to kick-off as possible, with the total seemingly heading north.
Under 45.5 Points
$1.96 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Either team win (1-12) – I like this to be tight, and it goes hand in hand with a small total. Both teams are desperate for the two points here.
E Mam (1+ try) – Mam famously scored three tries in the 2023 Grand Final against the Panthers and will be attacking the far weaker right edge defence of the Panthers here.
D Edwards (1+ try) – Edwards can’t stop scoring, and I expect the NSW number 1 to come back to club football with a bang.
SGM Odds: $11.63 at Neds
