A massive Queensland derby finishes the Friday night NRL double header, as the stumbling Broncos host the table-topping Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium. Will the Broncos be able to manage the massive losses of Payne Haas and Reece Walsh, or will the Cowboys remain alone in first place with their fourth straight win? Should be a cracking contest.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 29th March, 8:00pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Broncos took on the Panthers last Thursday night and were utterly dominated in the Grand Final replay. The Broncos lost Reece Walsh to a controversial Taylan May tackle in the 5th minute, adding to the losses of Adam Reynolds and Payne Haas, meaning the Panthers were far too good in their 34-12 victory. The Broncos struggled up front, gaining 400 metres fewer than the Panthers, whilst also missing 40 tackles and making 9 errors. Down 34-0 after 51 minutes, the Broncos managed two late consolation tries, but they need a massive improvement this week if they’re to beat the Cowboys.
Speaking of the Cowboys, they maintained their perfect start to the season, as they won their 3rd on the trot over the Dragons, 46-24. The Cowboys attack has been electric to start the season, scoring 28 more points than any other team in the competition. Despite going down 18-4 after 21 minutes, the Cowboys stormed home, scoring 42-straight points between the 26th and 65th minutes, to power home over the Dragons. The Cowboys will have to be at their best against the Broncos this week, with a huge step up in competition from their first three games (Dolphins, Knights, Dragons).
Match Preview
The Broncos won both matchups last season, winning 28-16 at home in round 2, before trouncing the Cowboys in Townsville 30-14 in week 23. The Broncos were tiny favourites in both games, covering both spreads comfortably. This is a notoriously tight rivalry, with the teams splitting the past 10 matchups, and either team could conceivably win this matchup.
The Broncos opened massive 7.5-point favourites before last weekend’s games, before the injury to Walsh and the form of the Cowboys saw money pour in on the Cowboys to where they now sit as small 1.5-point favourites. That’s a massive 9-point adjustment, which seems a little extreme to me for the loss of Reece Walsh. Tristan Sailor has been named to take over from Walsh at the back, and he showed last season that he is more than capable of being an effective fullback in first grade. Minus Walsh, I’d make these teams to be equal on a neutral field, meaning I believe the Broncos should be favourites at home. Given this, Broncos at the moneyline is a bet for me.
As for the total, it opened 41.5 and has been pushed up to 43.5. I have to agree with this move, and I make a fair 45.5, so still see some value in the over, whilst also seeing value in the Broncos team total over, which currently sits around the 20.5 mark. These teams traditionally play high scoring affairs, and at 43.5 I see it as a total that can be covered.
Strap in, this should be a cracking contest. Whilst this isn’t a must-win for the Broncos, it’s as close as can be in round 4, for a team that had Premiership aspirations coming into the 2024 season.
Broncos to Win
$1.96 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Over 42.5 total points – As above, I like the over in this matchup and think it adds a nice bump to the multi.
Jesse Arthars (1+ try) – The Cowboys have struggled on their right side defensively over the past two seasons, with Arthars hopefully on the end of some nice backline sweeps by the Broncos.
Murray Taulagi (1+ try) – The Broncos have conceded a whopping 85%+ of their tries on edges over the past two seasons, and with Taulagi having a bigger price than Feldt, I’ll take the value with the big left sided winger.
SGM Odds: $8.16 at Neds
