Saturday’s twilight fixture in Round 22 is as important as matches get at this stage of the season. Brisbane are fighting for a top two spot which would dramatically boost their premiership chances, while Adelaide are trying to keep their finals hopes alive.
Check out our full match preview, best bet, and Same Game Multi for the Lions vs Crows matchup below, andmake sure to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content, including tips for every game, weekly Brownlow recap, and more!
AFL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane vs Adelaide
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, August 12th, Gabba
Both Brisbane and Adelaide will be desperate to secure all four points in this Saturday twilight clash at the Gabba, which always makes for a more entertaining and competitive match. A win for the Lions would likely see them finish the round in second spot, while a win for the Crows could propel them into the top eight.
Brisbane were able to finish on top in a see-sawing affair against Fremantle last weekend (77-74) in what was a necessary win to bounce back from their embarrassment in the QClash. It broke a two-game slide on the road and improved their 2023 road record to 5-7. Thankfully for the Lions, two of their final three home and away matches are at the Gabba where they are yet to lose this season.
Looking to hand the Lions their first loss on home soil will be a determined and desperate Adelaide outfit. Since losing three on the spin between Round 17-19, the Crows have responded with two crucial wins against the Power and the Suns to reignite their finals aspirations.
The Crows have also had their struggles on the road this season and it’s been well documented in the media. They’ll head to the Gabba having failed to win away from home in six straight attempts and with an overall away record of 2-7 in 2023.
And while one can simply look at the Lions 8-0 home record and the Crows 2-7 away record and think the home side has this one in the bag, I can’t see this match playing out as straightforward as that, particularly with how these teams have played over the past three weeks.
The Lions could easily be 0-4 in the past month had a little luck gone the way of their opponents, and I’m not sure they’ll be AS hungry as the Crows on Saturday considering the latter are playing to keep their season alive.
I’ll be shocked if the Lions turn up and secure a straightforward win and as such, I’m more than happy to back the Crows to push them all the way and cover the generous 21.5-point handicap.
Adelaide +21.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Shane McAdam 2+ Goals – The Lions have some fantastic key defenders but their smalls aren’t quite as good. McAdam has been building his form recently and could be the Crows most dangerous forward this weekend.
Rory Laird 25+ Disposals – Never cops any real attention from opposition teams due to Jordan Dawson being the more damaging player. Laird should be able to be at his accumulating best again here.
Josh Dunkley 25+ Disposals – Similarly, Dunkley can usually run around by himself due to Neale getting all the attention. He’ll be logging big midfield minutes again and should be getting 25+ touches.
SGM Odds: $5.50 at BoomBet
