Happy New Year everyone! The New Year brings a fresh start and new opportunities, so we’re looking forward to kicking off 2014 on the right note with a profitable Round 4 of the Big Bash League.
There were some tricky games in Round 3, but we were able to identify the value on the Renegades as the underdogs in both of their matches, while the Stars and, our bet of the round in the Strikers, both got home with wins.
We’re also in good shape in some of our prop bets with Mike Hussey dominating for the Thunder to give us a chance in the leading run scorer markets. Hussey now sits third (153) behind Klinger (162) and Finch (178) who will miss games with the ODI team.
Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers
The Heat host the Sixers in the first match of Round 4, and both sides will be desperate for a win. The Heat’s defence of their title is off to a rocky start with two tough losses in a row where they’ve conceded in excess of 200 runs in both matches. They need to look at their bowling line up and execution. The length of their bowling isn’t working, and Nathan Hauritz just isn’t adding anything to the team as the second spin option. Fortunately Dan Vettori has been brilliant, so it won’t take much to turn it around as their bats are going well.
The Sixers had a break last round, and with a record of 1-1, they’ll want to stay on the positive side of the ledger. They will be pleased that Steve Smith was overlooked for ODI duties which will strengthen their batting.
Verdict: This will be a cracking match with the Heat deserved favourites, and they are our tip, but there’s not a lot of value at $1.69 on Sportsbet.
Other plays: A couple of other markets worth considering in this one are Maddison vs Pomersbach head to head. Pomersbach was pretty shabby in the last match while Maddison looks in sublime touch. Happy to take Maddinson at $1.90 at Sportsbet.
I also think Kieswetter is worth taking head to head against Lumb. Kieswetter looks in fine form while the inconsistent Lumb hasn’t fired in this competition as yet. Kieswetter looks value at $1.90 at Sportsbet.
Perth Scorchers vs Sydney Thunder
The Scorchers narrowly went down against the Strikers last round, but their batting again looked weak when the Marsh brothers didn’t go on with it. If it wasn’t for some late Coulter-Nile brilliance, then they wouldn’t have even been so competitive. Adam Voges may return which will be much needed.
The Thunder pushed the Stars but ultimately the class of the Stars shone through. The Thunder again were carried by Mike Hussey. They look a better side with Dilshan arriving to boost both top order, but still there is too much left to too few.
Verdict: Scorchers to win at $1.51 at Sportsbet. Not a lot of value, but they should get the win to get their season back on track and extend the Thunder's pain.
Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars
The Melbourne derby take two sees the Stars head over to Etihad to face a resurgent Renegades team coming off back-to-back victories against strong opposition. Finch firing at the top of the order makes a huge difference, while little cameos from Rohrer and Hill have also helped. With the ball, the return of James Pattinson has given their bowling an enormous lift with Nathan Rimmington also going well as the leading wicket taker in the competition.
The Stars are 3-0 and clearly the best team in the competition. They’ve come into $2.86 on Betfair to win the title after we got on them pre-tournament at odds of $5.50. You can lock in a nice profit already, or ride them out bit longer.
The Stars are the complete outfit, their guns are firing and they have the depth to cover any losses to the ODI team.
Verdict: The Stars have been listed as $1.57 favourites at Sportsbet, and a lot will depend on who is available for the Renegades. At full strength, it’s a lot closer than the odds suggest, so once again I’d look to the value with the Renegades at $2.34 at Sportsbet.
Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Sixers
The Sixers back up for their second match of the round with a tough clash against a Strikers team that looks like they’re starting to gel. Klinger at the top of the order was awesome, while Hales and Hughes can be equally devastating in the top order. Hughes not getting called up to the ODI squad is a huge boost for the Strikers chances this season.
Verdict: There aren’t any odds about this game yet, but the Strikers have been undervalued so far this season, and as such, have been our best bets each round. You’d think they will start warm favourites, and we will again be happy to jump on around the $1.75 mark.
Take note: The above tip is simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
