The Ashes have been retained inside of 11 days as Australia went 3-0 up in the series against England with an 82 run win in Adelaide. We now head to the biggest day on the sporting calendar, the Boxing Day Test, in front of a packed house at the MCG!
Jack Tobin brings you his full preview and betting tips for the 4th Test of the Ashes below, with odds thanks to Neds!
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Australia vs England 4th Test Preview & Betting Tips
MCG, Friday 26th December, 10:30am AEDT
Australia
Squad: Steve Smith, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Brendan Doggett, Cameron Green, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Todd Murphy, Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson, Mitchell Starc, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster
As there has been for each Test this series, there will be a few changes to the Australian side ahead of the fourth Test. Pat Cummins (managed) and Nathan Lyon (hamstring) will be out for the remainder of the series, with Jhye Richardson and Todd Murphy the likely replacements. Steve Smith was a late out of the third Test with an inner ear issue, but is set to come back and captain the side. Usman Khawaja made a pretty solid impact upon his recall with scores of 82 and 40, meaning it’s likely Josh Inglis will come out of the side for Smith.
The Australians put together another well rounded performance in Adelaide, led by the usual suspects who have starred this series. Alex Carey dug the Aussies out of a jam at 4/94 in the first innings, scoring a stirring 103, his first Test century at his home ground. Carey followed it up with 72 in the second innings and seven dismissals, producing arguably the best individual performance by an Australian keeper. Fellow South Australian Travis Head did the damage in the second innings with a brilliant 142, making him the highest run scorer in the series.
The consistency, relentlessness and discipline that has made this Australian bowling attack so good over the last five years was on full display on a flat surface in Adelaide. The Australians gave nothing easy, with Pat Cummins (3/69) and Nathan Lyon (2/70) making immediate impact upon their return in the first innings. Scott Boland was at his economical best with 3/45. Knocking over England for 286 in the first innings was ultimately where the game was won, while in the second innings Starc, Cummins and Lyon all picked up three wickets each.
England
Squad: Ben Stokes, Harry Brook, Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope, Matthew Potts, Joe Root, Jamie Smith, Josh Tongue, Matthew Fisher
After years of talk from the English camp and the media that BazBall was going to come down under and regain the Ashes for the first time in ten years, it’s been the same old England, thrashed in the first three Tests. With the series already gone, can England pick themselves off the canvas and avoid a whitewash? Or win a Test in Australia for the first time since 2011?
Given they only have one reserve batter in the squad, it limits what England can do from a selection point to try and turn things around. With scores of 0, 26, 3 and 17 from his last four innings, Ollie Pope is well and truly on the hot seat and could be replaced by Jacob Bethell. After being given plenty of games in the last two years in the lead up to this series Shoab Bashir is still yet to play this series, and would have to be in contention given how easily Australia have scored off Will Jacks.
England need a major lift from their batting unit, to have only scored one century from six innings puts you right behind the eight ball against Australia in these conditions. They haven’t been able to capitalise on their starts and bat big, to put Australia under any pressure in the series. With the ball it’s been much the same, with England struggling to put enough consistent periods of high quality bowling together that puts Australia under pressure. There were glimpses in the second innings in Adelaide, however they were not able to sustain it for nearly long enough.
Match Prediction
England have been battered from pillar to post this series and they have not been able to stand up to the pressure whatsoever. They have completely gone away from the BazBall ideology in the third Test, with some of the lowest strike rates seen in the England side since Brendon McCullum took over. It shows a side that is desperately low on confidence and is lacking direction on how they are going to play.
On the other side, Australia are full of clarity and confidence. Regardless of the eleven that are playing, regardless of the conditions, regardless of the game scenarios, they keep executing with ruthless intent, which has made them such a great side. The pitch at the MCG will suit the bowlers much more than it did in Adelaide, which means England's batters will have their work cut out for them against the Aussie quicks.
Australia have won 17 of their last 21 Tests, while England has won only one of their last seven Tests. Two teams who are playing at two very different levels, the Aussies will be full of confidence going into the cauldron at the MCG, where England will be under a mountain of pressure. Australia are desperate to win this series 5-0, and they’ll go one step closer with a win in the Boxing Day Test.
Australia to Win
$1.58 (1.5 Units)
Australia vs England Prop Bet
The MCG specialist is back on his home deck and will have conditions to suit him perfectly, and will be primed for another iconic Ashes performance. Scott Boland has taken 16 wickets at an average of 14.63 at the MCG, including his memorable 6/7 against Poms on his Test debut in 2021. With Cummins out of the remainder of the series, Boland will likely take the new ball again, and will have a brilliant opportunity to take early wickets at his home ground.
Scott Boland: Top Australian Bowler 1st Innings
$3.05
