AFL Grand Final: Richmond vs Geelong Preview & Betting Tips

October 21st 2020, 3:54pm, By: PuntingInDanger

AFL Grand Final Betting Tips

It’s finally here! After one of the most interesting seasons in AFL history, the Grand Final is upon us and what a matchup it’s set to be. The Richmond Tigers will square off against the Geelong Cats from the Gabba this Saturday from 7.30pm.

PuntingInDanger has been solid throughout the AFL season, racking up a record of 86-73 after making picks for every single game of the season. He’ll be looking to finish off the year with one big win in the Grand Final! See his full preview and betting tips for the clash below, and you can also check out his separate preview, which has some of his favourite AFL Grand Final prop betting tips, later in the week.

AFL Grand Final Betting Tips

What an interesting Grand Final this is set to be. For the first time in AFL history, the Grand Final will be played under lights, with the game set to get underway at 7.30pm. The game will also be played away from the MCG for just the 2nd time since 1946.

Richmond

The Tigers will be hoping to win their third premiership in the last four years when they step onto the field on Saturday night. A win would cement their place amongst the great teams of the modern era and give a third premiership medal to stars of the game in the likes of Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin.

Their finals campaign got off to a slow start when they were comfortably defeated by the Lions in the qualifying final. They bounced back with a dominant 31 point win over the Saints on the back of strong performances from Tom Lynch and Dustin Martin. They went into their preliminary final against the Power as slight underdogs and the game was an arm-wrestle from start to finish. Ultimately, the Tigers kicked crucial goals when it mattered most and dominated possession in the final quarter to earn a hard fought six-point win.

There could be some questions raised at the selection table throughout the week for the Tigers. Their line-up has looked somewhat settled for the past two weeks now but Jake Aarts and Maboir Chol have both been a big part of their success throughout the season and seem to be banging on the door to get in for this Grand Final. Daniel Rioli, Marlion Pickett or Jason Castagna could all conceivably make way depending on how Damian Hardwick wants to set up.

Dustin Martin has been the catalyst of their two Grand Final wins. He has averaged 25.5 touches per game and 3 goals per game to go with his two Norm Smith Medals in the two Tigers Grand Final wins and should be a massive factor once again.


PlayUp

Likely Teams

likely teams AFL grand finals

Geelong

The Cats were unfairly written off after they went down to the Power in the first week of finals. To their credit, they have bounced back to win their next two games in dominant fashion to force their way into the Grand Final. They downed the Magpies by a whopping 68 points before disposing of the Brisbane Lions by 40 points at the Gabba in the prelim.

It was Patrick Dangerfield who did the damage against the Magpies, kicking four goals and looking absolutely unstoppable in the win. Last week, Gary Rohan had one of those Gary Rohan games in the prelim against the Lions, kicking three goals and he will pose as a tough matchup for the Richmond defence this Saturday night.

On the selection front, the Cats look pretty settled and will likely go into the game unchanged. Midfield recruit Jack Steven is the only player that could push for selection, but given his proclivity for injury throughout the season so far, it’s unlikely that they will roll the dice with the 4 x Saints best & fairest winner.

The little master, Gary Ablett, will play his final game of AFL football in the Grand Final, and what a career it’s been. Ablett has averaged 24.96 possessions per game over his illustrious career and he wound back the clock in the prelim win over the Lions, kicking two goals and accumulating 14 touches. There’s no doubt Gaz will leave it all out on the field in search of his third premiership medallion on Saturday night. Back him to get 15+ disposals.


Prediction

As it so often is in the Grand Final, it’s almost impossible to split these two teams and the bookies agree. The Tigers start as the slightest of favourites but based on form, I feel like you have to give the edge to the Cats. They decimated the Pies and Lions in their last two games, allowing just 37 points per game and winning by an average margin of 54 points. The Tigers did win their Round 17 clash by 26 points, however, it was a pretty clear night that night and it looks like there is some rain forecast for this Saturday. 

The Cats are one of the few teams in the league that have the defensive structure that is capable of standing up to the Tigers game style, which prioritises moving the ball through the middle of the ground quickly and kicking long. I like the ability of Geelong to slow the pace of this game down and force the Tigers to go wide, which they desperately don’t want to do. They have been exemplary at doing so the last two weeks, and barring any late changes to the team, I think their defence holds up again.


TIPS

New Zealand vs Australia 5th T20 Preview & Betting Tips

After a back and forth series, we head into the final game of the T20 series between New Zealand and Australia with everything on the line. Can Australia claim the series or will New Zealand bounce back? Check out our preview and betting tips for the 5th T20 between New Zealand and Australia here. read more

Horse Racing Tips: Saturday March 6th

Arguably one of the best days of racing has finally arrived with some of the world’s best horses in action today across two massive meetings at Randwick and Flemington, highlighted by the Newmarket Handicap and Randwick Guineas. Check out our best bets of the day right here! read more

2021 NRL Season Preview & Betting Tips

The last NRL season was one that many will remember for a variety of reasons and, as the new season approaches, the excitement builds in anticipation of what this new season could have in store. See our full preview and betting tips for the 2021 NRL season here read more

NBL 2020-21 Betting Tips: Round 8

Round 8 of the 2020-21 NBL season is another busy one with plenty of double-headers on the cards. Check out our best bets from some of the best Round 8 games courtesy of SmitsTips here! read more

ARTICLES

Best Australian Sports Betting Sites

The best Australian sports betting sites ensure safe and successful online betting for punters. Here's our list of the best sports betting options in Australia. read more


Performance Ratings & Pricing with Julian Vallance with Sportsbet

Julian Vallance from Sportsbet takes us through some of the key factors which he uses with pricing upcoming horse races such as performance ratings. Check out his video from Sportsbet here. read more


What is Over-Round and How do Sportsbooks Make Money?

Over-Round is an important concept for both punters and sportsbooks. It's how Australian sportsbooks make money! All punters should understand over-round, how to spot it, and how to find better value on the Betfair Exchange. read more


Betfair Commissions and Charges

Ever wondered why you can get such great odds at Betfair in comparison to other online bookmakers? We break down why that is the case and why Betfair isn't just for professional punters here read more


BLOGS

2021 NRL Fixture

The 2021 NRL season fixture has been released and it promises to be an exciting year with games set to get underway on the 11th of March! Check out the full fixture for the 2021 NFL season here and be sure to head to our NRL Betting Tips page for previews and tips throughout the season. read more


2021 AFL Fixture

The 2021 AFL season is fast approaching and although we don't yet have the full landscape of how the fixture will play out, the first six rounds have been confirmed and the matchups for all 23 home and away rounds are set. read more


2021 AFL Premiership Odds

The 2021 AFL season starts on March 18th 2021 and we hope to see a somewhat normal season after a challenging season in 2020. Once again Richmond are the pre-season favourites in the AFL Premiership Odds betting. Can someone knock them off their perch this season? Check out the latest betting odds here. read more


2021 AFLW Premiership Odds

Footy is back with the 2021 AFLW season set to kick off tonight! The Kangaroos have been installed as the pre-season premiership favourites with the Dockers, Blues and Demons also among the contenders. Check out the 2021 AFLW Premiership Odds here with thanks to Ladbrokes. read more


BetDeluxe

WinnersBet