AFL Saturday for Round 18 offers four games and some potentially wet and wild weather which might have a significant impact if it arrives!
The Marvel Stadium clash between St Kilda and Port Adelaide kicks off the day's action and it stands out as the safest fantasy environment with the roof keeping everyone nice and dry! Geelong versus the GWS Giants profiles as one of the highest-upside games despite the forecast showers that may hit late in the afternoon at GMHBA Stadium. Adelaide should enjoy plenty of possession against Gold Coast, but again, it’s uncertain how much the weather could reduce overall scoring, while the late MCG clash between Carlton and Hawthorn may turn into a contested, stoppage-heavy game if the rain sets in. Balancing strong matchups with the weather risk will be one of the key decisions for DFS players at Draftstars this week.
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 18 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Round 18 Saturday: Where to Attack?
The Saints continue to be a great team to target against for fantasy scoring as they give up the league worst 12 points above average to wings and running defenders. They are also a little above average to general defenders and forwards, so there’s plenty of Power players in play here.
Interestingly, the Power have been pretty tight in terms of fantasy, despite their low position on the ladder. They are below average across every position except to key forwards where they are slightly above average.
The Giants were great last week against the Dockers, and now they face an equally tough assignment against the Cats in Geelong. Their fantasy profile has improved recently and they are close to league average across all positions over the last ten games without any real areas to target.
The Cats are a bit hit and miss this season which makes them hard to predict. They have a couple of areas where they desperately leak fantasy points and that’s in the ruck and to general forwards. They have also omitted #1 ruck in Mitch Edwards, so it will be a very makeshift combination of rucks for the Cats in this one. However the Cats are in the top 3 best against key forwards. They are also above average to opposition defenders, so the Giants seagulls won’t get an easy time swooping across the backline.
It’s no surprise that the Blues numbers stack up well over the last ten weeks as they’ve enjoyed a winning streak of seven in a row. They have emerged as the league’s best against opposition key forwards, which might sound surprising with Jacob Weitering being injured recently. However that may also be reflective of the weaker opposition they’ve faced in that time. They’ve also been good against opposition inside midfielders and almost 13 points better than league average against the designated kicker, so there’s no easy kicks for the Hawks in this one. They do however continue to leak points in the ruck.
As one of the top teams in the league, the Hawks don’t give up much in terms of fantasy. There’s no real avenues to exploit at all. They are particularly restrictive in the ruck and also to wings and defensive runners where they are in the top three toughest teams in the league.
Similarly Adelaide are a tough fantasy opposition with no real weaknesses to attack. They are in the top three stingiest to general forwards, inside midfielders and designated kickers so it doesn’t leave a lot of room to pick the Suns as underdogs.
Surprisingly Gold Coast have tightened up their fantasy leaks despite a rough trot of form. They also don’t have any holes to exploit and they are the tightest team in the league to general defenders. So this might be a game to steer clear of.
It’s a slate with very few areas to exploit, so look for players that offer good value in pricing that don't mind playing in the wet!
Game Script: Power wings/outside runners, Hawks/Giants ruck
AFL Fantasy Round 18 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Sam De Koning ($7,600) is an option this week as it looks likely that he’ll be playing mostly in the ruck for the Cats with Mitch Edwards omitted. Last time SDK was the lead ruck he posted a 90 against the Crows with 25 disposals and 16 hitouts. That’s a fair upswing from his usual role, so at a budget price, and a nice ceiling, he’s definitely in play.
Zeke Uwland ($9,240) is worth a mention after his enormous 146 last week against Collingwood which might prove to be a real turning point in his career. He was huge with 32 disposals and 16 marks. The upswing didn’t come out of nowhere as he showed good signs the week before after a shift into the backline when he scored 86 against Freo. It’s a great role for him at the price, but there is some recency bias in play, it could be wet which may not suit and not a great matchup against the Crows. The price is not too bad to take the risk.
Lloyd Meek ($9,910) is my first choice of ruckman for this slate. He’s got the keys as the solo ruck at the Hawks with Ned Reeves still missing through injury. Last week, he was up against Max Gawn and managed to collect 38 hitouts and 82 points which are good numbers against the best ruckman in the game. You can ignore his stats from earlier in the season where he was sharing ruck duties - he averaged 93.3 last season as solo ruck with ten tons, so he is capable of a high ceiling. Life will be a lot easier here against Marc Pittonet this week who leaks points and if it’s a wet game, there should be plenty of stoppages which bring ruckmen into the game. He’s a great value price.
AFL Fantasy Round 18 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Patrick Dangerfield ($10,950) was back to his scintillating best last week with 5 goals and a massive 124 fantasy points. Can he back it up again this week? That’s the big question. This is a must-win game for the Cats and if there’s some rain around, I love Danger in the guts throwing his weight around and smashing bodies against the Giants. He’ll get plenty of tackles and scrappy disposals to be a real threat once again.
Darcy Byrne-Jones ($12,960) is right in play this week in a favourable matchup against the Saints who give up massive points to wings and outside running defenders. Bryne-Jones has thoroughly enjoyed a shift into the backline this season with recent form including a 109 and a 131 in the last three weeks. The only concern here is the return of Kane Farrell ($12,920) from a groin injury who will no doubt soak up some of the distributing in the Power back half. Farrell is also in play at the same price but there’s just some doubt coming back from injury.
AFL Fantasy Round 18 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Zak Butters ($15,700) looks a good option here on a slate that does have a number of very good A+ grade premium midfielders. Butters is $2k cheaper than Bailey Smith, and has similar profile with a massive ceiling as evident by his 142 just two weeks ago. The only concern is that it’s more than likely that he’ll cop a tag so hopefully he can shake that and post a big ton for us.
Jordan Dawson ($17,400) should be the All Australian captain in my opinion as his remarkable season continues. Dawson averages 115.6 with a high of 156 just last month against the Bulldogs. The thing I love most about Dawson is that he has so many ways to score. He can rack up big disposals if he needs to, but he can also lay heaps of tackles, take big marks and kick goals. Gold Coast are unlikely to tag, so this seems a good spot for Dawson to go big.
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 11th July
Melbourne - Rain,14 degrees
Geelong - Light rain, 14 degrees
Adelaide - Rain, 13 degrees
There looks to be some weather around on Saturday which you’ll need to consider for your fantasy lineups. While the first game is unaffected under the roof at Marvel Stadium, the other two games in Victoria might cop some rain which is expected to develop in the late afternoon and evening. The MCG does drain well but the ball may be slippery.
The trickiest game for weather may be in Adelaide where rain is expected as well as strong northerly winds which may create more stoppages and difficult ball movement.
Refer to the weather reports and radars closer to the start time for more accurate weather information and adjust your lineups accordingly.
AFL Betting Markets Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
St Kilda ($1.56) vs Port Adelaide ($2.43)
Line: St Kilda -9.5
Points: 170.5
Geelong Cats ($1.60) vs GWS Giants ($2.35)
Line: Geelong -9.5
Points: 188.5
Hawthorn ($1.52) vs Carlton ($2.55)
Line: Hawthorn -11.5
Points: 168.5
Adelaide Crows ($1.36) vs Gold Coast SUNS ($3.18)
Line: Adelaide -16.5
Points: 154.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
