Anzac Day Round of the 2024 AFL Premiership Season gets underway early this week with the first match of Round 7 on Wednesday night with Richmond and Melbourne clashing at the MCG. Melbourne started the season red-hot but now find themselves stuck in the top 8 shuffle at 4-2, so they’ll be looking reassert their spot in the top four with a win here. Meanwhile, the Tigers are looking to distance themselves from the wooden spoon race and get their second win of the season.
Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Wednesday night main being worth $70,000 along with their usual variety of alternate contests:
- AFL $70,000+ Tigers vs Demons
- AFL $5,000+ Tigers vs Demons High Roller ($150 Entry)
- AFL $2,000+ Tigers vs Demons Fiver
- AFL $3,000+ Tigers vs Demons Mini ($2 Entry)
The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.
Meanwhile the 1000 AFL Target contests are set to return to Draftstars for the first time since 2018. Enter the contest and hit the 1000-point barrier with your team to scoop the jackpot!
Betting Markets
Richmond ($4.90) vs Melbourne ($1.17)
Total Points Line: 164.5
Match Line: Melbourne -27.5
If you’re looking to bet on the AFL this season, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer an strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.
Additionally, we have a full Richmond vs Melbourne Betting Preview where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!
Weather
16 degrees and a shower or two, but less than 1mm. Shouldn’t really impact the game. Let’s play some fantasy.
Where to Attack?
This game is shaping up an obvious game script, with Melbourne heavy favourites we can look at stacking up their forwards and midfielders against the Tigers. Richmond have been giving up over 3 points per game above average this year to key forwards, and have also been getting destroyed in the midfield conceding the second most points in the league to inside midfielders in 2024.
Meanwhile, Melbourne continue their trend in recents years of conceding points to backs. Placing an extra man behind the ball they allow over 6 points per game above league average to the designated kicker and over 9 points per game above average to attacking half backs. This suits the game script as we can expect Richmond to be forced to over possess the football in the back line in a game dominated by Melbourne.
Game Script – Melbourne key forwards and inside midfielders, Richmond backs
VALUE PLAYS
Jacob van Rooyen ($7,710) makes for a great value play on this slate. Playing as a key forward, which has been a problem for the Tigers this season as noted above, while also chopping out Max in the ruck gives him plenty of opportunity to return value at this price point. So far this season he has already points a 70 point game and 68 point game, which would both be sufficient return on a single game slate. I also like the potential to play him as a ruck if you don’t feel like spending all the way up on that position is the way to go.
Nathan Broad ($8,750) loading up the on the Tigers backs is the stand out play on this slate. Broad looks to be a great opportunity to find value on this single game slate with him taking 7 kick ins in the last game for Richmond and Melbourne giving up the second most points in the league to the designated kicker. While Broad’s top score this season is only 70, he has shown in the past 90-100 point upside in matchups like this.
Alternatives or possible value combinations that can be stacked up with Broad include Tom Brown ($7,280)who has shown upside and has a good kick or Hugo Ralphsmith ($7,500) who can also be added to the Tigers back stacks in the midfield.
And if you’re keen to have a crack at the fantasy betting markets in this one, PlayUp are offering $4.25 for Nathan Broad to rack up 80+ fantasy points, which looks like great value in this matchup!
MID PRICED PLAYS
Tom Sparrow ($10,600) continues to be my go to for these single game slates with Melbourne playing. He has returned 74+ in three of his last four games, which is a great floor at this price and potentially enough of a return in big tournaments in a single game like this. Sparrow continues to be a key cog in the Demons midfield attending over 60% of their centre bounces and as noted above this is one of the top matchups in the league for inside midfielders.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Christian Petracca ($15,210) is clearly Melbourne’s best midfielder right now, with Clayton Oliver struggling to regain fitness and form after a rocky off season. He has gone for 100 in three of his games this season and bring a 120+ point upside. Given the matchup and the opportunity for him to rack up points both on the inside but also while pushing forward is my first picked premium player on this slate.
Nick Vlastuin ($13,360) offers a nice point of difference spend up. In this price range it is unlikely that he will be very highly owned, but it is one of the best matchups he will have all season. Typically he is the Tigers mainstay as the designated kickers, which is an elite matchup against Melbourne as already discussed above. In addition, he brings GPP winning upside, already posting a 122 point game this season.
When it comes to betting, Vlastuin at $2.50 to top 100+ fantasy points at PlayUp looks a solid bet in this matchup.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
Cheat Sheet
Downloadable Excel Spreadsheet - Rich vs Melb - Data Projections (xlsm)
