One of the two early games in the AFL on Saturday will be played in South Australia, with Adelaide taking on North Melbourne. The Crows are the overwhelming favourites to get the chocolates, but the Kangaroos have been competitive of late. We bring you our full preview and betting tips for the clash.
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AFL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Adelaide vs North Melbourne
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, July 1st, Adelaide Oval
Despite suffering defeat against Collingwood last weekend, there was a lot to like about Adelaide’s performance and they certainly didn’t lose any fans. A 43-3 third quarter saw them take a two-goal lead into the final term, but they were unfortunately overrun by two points in what was a controversial finish to the match.
As good as the Crows were in their narrow loss to the ladder-leaders last weekend, they’ve still only won one match away from Adelaide Oval this season, and that was by three points back in Round 6 against the rebuilding Hawks.
Meanwhile, North Melbourne had a freshen up in Round 15 where they had the bye, which has given them a couple of extra days to plan their trip to South Australia. Most recently they suffered defeat against the Bulldogs in Round 14, which made it 12 straight losses since starting the season 2-0.
As bad as 12 losses in a row sounds, there’s still been some positives for North Melbourne. Four of their last five losses have been by less than four goals, which shows you they’ve at least been competitive and haven’t given up despite being outclassed most weekends.
And although the Kangaroos have only been losing by narrow margins of late, the 44.5-point spread seems to be a fair representation of where these teams are at in my opinion, especially considering how much better the Crows have fared on their home deck as a rule.
One clear reason why the Crows have had a lot more success at Adelaide Oval compared to on the road this campaign is due to how well they defend the ground. On average, the Crows have conceded 71.4 points in home games this season, compared to 92.1 in away matches.
On top of that, the Kangaroos lack firepower and are only averaging 67.7 points per road game this season, and have been kept to 61 points or less on three occasions.
Considering these key statistics, it’s hard to see how the total points goes over the current line of 180.5 unless the Crows go bananas and put 120+ on the board. I’m willing to bet against that happening and jump on the unders for two units.
Under 180.5 Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Josh Rachele 15+ Disposals – Loves playing in front of the home fans and has recorded 15+ in each of his last eight matches at Adelaide Oval.
Wayne Milera 20+ Disposals – Great value for 20+ disposals considering he’s reached this mark in five of his last six outings.
Tex Walker 3+ Goals – Has kicked 15 goals across his last two matches and leads the Coleman. Should be able to get on the end of a few again here.
Same Game Multi odds: $3.60
