There are some big local derby match-ups in Round 12 with the NSW Waratahs-Melbourne Rebels and Crusaders-Blues plus a bunch of games with play-off ramifications.
The second-placed ACT Brumbies look like the only Aussie team ready to win a play-off game so the Waratahs, Queensland Reds, Rebels and Western Force need to make statements in their games.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Round 12 of Super Rugby Pacific.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 12 Preview & Betting Tips
Chiefs v Queensland Reds
Fri, May 12 Yarrow Stadium, New Plymouth, 5.05pm (AEST)
Credit to the Reds. They could have left a few more of their bigger names out of the starting side with such a remote shot at upsetting the hot 10-0 Chiefs in New Zealand.
Key No.8 Harry Wilson is getting something of a rest on the bench while attacking trump Jordan Petaia will miss the rest of the Super Rugby season after wrist tendon surgery.
The Reds should have won in Hamilton in 2019 when they hammered the Chiefs tryline and came up just short 19-13. The Reds no longer have a pack with Tupou, Rodda, Salakaia-Loto and Scott-Young involved so dominating up front looks unlikely.
The Reds will have a crack but their mistake rate suggests turnovers will become juicy morsels for the Chiefs to turn into tries like they have all season. No team has scored more than their 49 tries and they are scoring at 37 points per game.
That’s some firepower. The Reds will defend but losing 13 of their last 14 games against Kiwi sides prevents tipping one of the season’s biggest boilovers.
The Chiefs are resting dynamos like Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane, Brad Weber and Pita Gus Sowakula but any team with Damian McKenzie and Shaun Stevenson leading the attack is still very dangerous.
Chiefs -8.5 half time margin
$1.89 (3 Units)
Western Force v Fijian Drua
Fri, May 12 HBF Park, Perth, 7.35pm (AEST)
The Force are a strange outfit. They could just bob up with six really good wins, plenty of dud results and sneak into the finals ahead of more consistent sides.
That dream lives or dies by this game. The Drua are a different team away from Fiji but still so potent. The Fijians will be aware that a first-time finals spot is on the line and this is the avenue to achieve it.
That said, the Drua have never won back-to-back games in their two seasons in the comp which reflects their inconsistency and perhaps long flights like this week from Suva.
The Force have won their past four home games at HBF Park which is a nice run of momentum. Max Burey is again at flyhalf, there’s some impact on the bench and we’ll hold our breath.
This could be a tight Force win or a biggish Drua win. Fijian centres Kalaveti Ravouvou and Iosefo Masi are just super dangerous and no one stops their offload game.
The $1.62 about Force hooker Folau Fainga’a scoring an Anytime Try (Ladbrokes) makes sense from a rolling maul.
Drua Win By 13+
$4.80 (3 Units)
NSW Waratahs v Melbourne Rebels
Sat, May 13 Allianz Stadium, Sydney, 7.35pm (AEST)
It’s win or forget it time for the ninth-placed Rebels. They have already beaten the Waratahs and Reds this season and ran the Brumbies close last weekend. Confidence is different to knowing exactly how to close out games and the Melbourne men are still learning that art.
Just how significant the return of backrower Richard Hardwick is was reflected by his lovely offload to set up a try last round. With Josh Kemeny suspended, he needs to be an even bigger factor.
The Rebels have actually won five of the last seven times they have met the Waratahs. Young flyhalf Carter Gordon is showing no sign of coming off the boil which is good for the Rebels’ chances. He runs the show. They score 30 points per game but conceding 38 is the problem.
You might be tempted by Waratahs winger Mark Nawaqanitawase (four tries) as a tryscoring option but Rebels finisher Lachie Anderson has scored more (five) this season.
Rebels +7.5
$1.85 (4 Units)
ACT Brumbies v Highlanders
Sun, May 14 GIO Stadium, Canberra 2.35pm (AEST)
The Highlanders are just an average team and certainly the poorest of the Kiwi outfits by some distance. That’s even more so when All Blacks halfback Aaron Smith is missing as he is from this game.
The Highlanders actually have a good record against the Brumbies and have won the last four times they have played as the away team.
That’s a good reason for the Brumbies to be on their game. Keep winning and there is the potential to host a quarter-final and semi-final in Canberra which would be a huge plus.
Wallabies lock Cadeyrn Neville is having a deserved spell from this one but in comes another Wallaby in Darcy Swain.
The Brumbies will be too sharp in this one.
Brumbies -10.5
$1.93 (3 Units)
More Round 12 Betting Tips
Hurricanes v Moana Pasifika
Sat, May 13 Sky Stadium, Wellington, 2.35pm (AEDT)
TIP: Moana Pasifika +21.5 - $1.91 at Ladbrokes
Crusaders v Blues
Sat, May 13 Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch, 5.05pm (AEDT)
TIP: Blues to WIN - $2.60 at Ladbrokes
