The Warriors and Roosters kick things off on Sunday, as the Roosters head across the ditch to Mt. Smart Stadium for the first time in 5 years. Two teams on 10 points, with the winner likely into the top 8, and the loser likely on the outside looking in before Magic Round.
Then, to cap off round 9, two teams struggling to stay in contention take centre stage, as the Bulldogs head to Wollongong to take on the Dragons. With both sides carrying 3-game losing streaks into the game, there will be plenty of desperation throughout the 80+ minutes in this one.
NRL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters
Mt. Smart Stadium, Sunday 30th April, 2:00pm (AEST)
The Warriors were desperately unlucky against a sputtering Storm on ANZAC Day, going down 30-22 after leading 18-6 after 34 minutes. They tried their hardest, but ultimately ended up with an empty bench, as key injuries to Tohu Harris, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Bailey Sironen, and Jazz Tevaga made it almost impossible for the Warriors. Now, a massive test lays ahead for a team that could quickly slip through the cracks, with the Roosters here, before meeting the Panthers at Suncorp in Magic Round.
The Roosters looked good in patches, but there are still worrying signs for the Bondi team, who struggled by the Dragons 27-26. They appear capable of putting points on the board at will, however allowed far too many easy points to the Dragons. The statistics mirrored the result, with both teams being identical almost across the board in meaningful statistics. Trent Robinson will want a far better performance this week.
This one opened up Roosters -5.5, and despite the Warriors giving the Storm everything they could handle last week, that number has jumped to Roosters -7.5. There are several reasons why I can’t fathom this, but let’s start with the round 2 game between these teams at Allianz Stadium. At this early point in the season, the market had not only the Roosters rated as better than they are now, but they had the Warriors worse, much worse. The Roosters closed 12.5-point favourites in that game, suggesting the market believed they were 10-points better on a neutral site than the Warriors. Fast forward to this week, and the market is still suggesting that same 10-point difference between these teams? No, just no.
I understand the Warriors have some key players missing, but I just don’t see the Roosters putting them to the sword in this matchup. All 4 of the Roosters victories this season have been by 1-12, and they have only covered 2 of 7 spreads, indicating they are overrated in the market. The Warriors, by contrast, have not lost by 13+ all season, and have covered 7 of 8 spreads, the best percentage in the NRL.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Warriors win this one, but I’ll just take them at the two-score handicap.
New Zealand Warriors (+7.5)
$1.90 (2 Units)
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs
WIN Stadium, Sunday 30th April, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Dragons gave the Roosters everything they could manage on ANZAC Day, with the tricolours requiring a 73rd minute Luke Keary field-goal to close it out 27-26. It proved to be the Dragons third straight defeat; however, they have been within one score in each of those three games, showing they are playing at a decent level at the moment, just missing that killer blow.
The Bulldogs continued their form as the worst team in the competition at the moment, with the Sharks beating them 33-20 without having to get out of 2nd gear. The Sharks made 13 errors whilst giving away 7 penalties, both more than the Bulldogs, and yet still dominated all statistical areas. Something has to change, and fast.
I could not understand the look ahead for this one, with the Dragons opening just 1.5-point favourites, with the market suggesting the Bulldogs were the better team on a neutral. The number re-opened at 2.5, and has crept up to 3.5 at the time of writing. Whilst this is closer to my fair, I still believe there’s value in the Dragons number here.
This game sets up rather well for a big Dragons win here, with the Dragons’ two wins this season being by 13+, whilst the Bulldogs have lost 4 games by 13+, the most in the competition. My numbers have the Dragons anywhere from a 6 point to a 10-point favourite, so this is one of my most confident bets of the year. The bulldogs are desperate, which makes me shy away from a 13+, but I believe the Dragons get this done, and get it done well.
The total is also exceptionally low in this game, in fact it’s the lowest total in a game not involving the Panthers since round 3. There’s always a chance a game involving two poor teams turns into a bludger, so I won’t go too hard, but I don’t mind it as a small wager.
Other Bet
Over 38.5 total points - $1.95 @ TAB (1u)
Dragons (-3.5)
$1.85 (4 Units)
