Super Saturday returns with three exciting games promised. In a different experience to what has previously occurred, two of the three fixtures will occur in NSW regional towns. The first heads to Wagga Wagga, with the Raiders shifting their home game against the Dolphins, the second time these sides have met this season. The second fixture heads to Sydney, with the Sea Eagles hosting the Titans. It is off to Bathurst for the final game, with the Panthers playing at their adopted home ground against the Tigers. Let’s look at each fixture and hopefully add some income to enhance your viewing pleasure.
Check out our best bets for Saturday’s NRL action below, and head over to our NRL Tips page for more Round 9 previews and betting tips.
NRL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs The Dolphins
Saturday 29th April, McDonalds Park, 3pm (AEST)
The Raiders had the Bye last week, following their dour Round 7 victory over the Dragons. In a tight match and trailing 4-nil at HT, the Raiders executed better in the second half, taking their opportunities, and converting them into points. That victory was not without its faults though; they were inferior to the Dragons in every attacking statistic, while also missing 41 tackles. Better performances are needed if they are to improve their consistency. The Dolphins executed the ‘great escape’ with their 28-26 victory over the Titans at home. Trailing 26-nil after 28 minutes, the Dolphins demonstrated resilience in a club-defining victory for a team which is in its infancy. An improved possession statistic, supported by strong ball carrying was the catalyst for their second half comeback. The recent performances do little to help the Dolphins though, they are still listed as outsiders ($1.58 vs $2.40). This is not a true indication of how each team is currently performing and you only have to look as far as the weekly NRL Power Rankings. Confidence is low in the Raiders; they are a gritty, tricky opponent for anyone, but the Dolphins have proven themselves worthy. The road trip to Wagga Wagga may hold some uncertainty for them. Rather than directly pick a winner, invest around the total points. The Dolphins’ defence has seen totals of 54 and 50 in the past 4 weeks.
Same Game Multi
Dolphins +8.5, Rapana & Tabuai-Fidow to score @ $6 – 0.5 units
Total Points Over 43.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans
Saturday 29th April, 4 Pines Park, 5:30pm (AEST)
The Sea Eagles always appeared in control of their match against the Tigers but would’ve been worried when scores were tied with 10-minutes remaining. A superior team in every way, they were their own worst enemy as they completed at just 67%, had only 42% possession and missed more tackles (36 vs 26). Expected to perform to a higher level, such efforts still leave lingering questions about their overall potential. The Titans would be desperate for such an effort, with their 28-26 loss to the Dolphins arguably one of the worst in their club’s history. Leading 26-nil after 28 minutes, the Titans failed to shut their opponents out of the contest. Their second half was riddled with mistakes and missed tackles. Unable to build pressure, they gave the Dolphins a chance to win, and they capitalised. The absence of a genuine playmaker hurt their direction and poise when it mattered most. The outcome of this match will largely depend on whether Tommy Turbo takes the field; he is currently named to start but will require a fitness test prior to kick off. News that Schuster will also be missing increases the pressure on other Sea Eagles players. This hasn’t impacted their price though; they are still listed as favourites ($1.48 vs $2.65). While only having a 44% record at this ground (Sea Eagles 61%), the Titans will need a fast start if they are to disrupt the momentum of the home side; the Sea Eagles haven’t lost there this season and you only must look at their performances against the Eels and Storm for evidence. As usual in games involving the Titans, buyer beware. Conditions are expected to be wet, so take the Sea Eagles to win by less than 2 converted tries (they have only 1 13+ victory this season).
Same Game Multi
Saab & Olakauatu to score @ $4.30 – 0.5 units (TAB)
Sea Eagles 1-12
$3.10 (1.5 Units)
Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers
Saturday 29th April, Carrington Park, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Panthers were upset by the Rabbitohs 20-18 in the dying stages of their second meeting this year. It was a pleasing enough effort after a narrow 15-14 win over the Knights in Round 7, but they were defeated by a better team on the night. It is hardly time to panic though, with statistics relatively in a high-quality contest. As highlighted in the NRL Power Rankings, they are still a contending team. The Tigers are still winless in 2023 but appear to be getting closer to win. They were even with the Sea Eagles with 10 minutes remaining in their match, fighting back in the second half to level the scores. It will not ease the pressure, but some teams are performing far worse. Their ‘effort’ stats (completion rate, missed tackles, metres made, etc.) were better than the Sea Eagles in just about every area and this further supports that point. They are getting closer to their first victory but face another tough task here. It is difficult to see anything other than a Panthers victory in this contest. They have too much firepower across the field and will be treated differently compared with inconsistent teams like the Eels and Sea Eagles; the Panthers make you pay for your mistakes. You need to go searching for value though (Panthers $1.12 vs Tigers $6.20) and that appears to be in a victory to the home team by more than 3 converted tries. The Panthers defensive structure, balanced out by their dynamic attack, should ensure they create this margin.
Prop Bets
SGM 1 – Peachey to score & Edwards to score 2+ tries @ $21 – 0.25 units
SGM 2 – Luai to score & To’o to score 2+ tries @ $21 – 0.25 units
Panthers 19+
$1.95 (1 Unit)
