Saturday afternoon football kicks off in Launceston, as Hawthorn take on North Melbourne in a fixture that is set to have plenty of spice! Can the Kangaroos move to 3-0? Or will the Hawks cause an upset to pick up their first win of the season?
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AFL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
Saturday 1:45pm AEDT, April 1st, UTAS Stadium
It’s the master versus the apprentice as Alistair Clarkson takes on Hawthorn for the first time since the botched succession plan saw Sam Mitchell take over from the four time premiership coach. It’s been a contrasting season for both clubs with North Melbourne riding high at 2-0, while the Hawks are 0-2 having been smashed in consecutive games.
Sam Mitchell has responded by swinging the axe at selection, dropping Jacob Koschitzke, Lachie Bramble and James Blanck. Jack Scrimshaw, Harry Morrison and Tyler Brockman come into the side.
For the Kangaroos it was a more straightforward week at the selection table, with captain Jye Simpkin (suspension) being replaced by Will Phillips. Last week’s medical sub Daniel Howe wasn’t included in the squad.
North Melbourne caused a massive upset in the west last week, with a one point victory over Fremantle which showed what they’re capable of this season. The Roos let the game get closer than it should have, but they have to be happy with the improvements they’ve made over the first two weeks of the season.
North dominated the clearance battle against a quality Fremantle midfield, recording a +15 clearance differential despite losing the hitout battle by 15, and won contested possessions +2. The Kangaroos were ranked 16th for contested possessions in 2022, and although it’s a small sample size, they ranked third for contested possessions in 2023.
The Hawks were dominated from start to finish, as Sydney cruised to an 81 point win at the SCG. Expectations were low coming into this season, but it’s been an alarmingly uncompetitive start from Hawthorn. The Hawks have struggled badly at contested possessions (ranked 18th), points for (18th), points against (18th) and clearances (17th).
Hawthorn have been obliterated in the middle of the ground this season, and the Kangaroos have been outstanding in the centre led by Luke Davies-Uniacke who has averaged 31 disposals over the first two weeks of the season. If North Melbourne gains ascendancy in the middle of the ground, it is going to be another long day for the Hawthorn back six.
After dropping Jacob Koschitzke, the Hawks are without a genuine key forward, with back up ruckman Lloyd Meek and Fergus Greene who is only 187cm, taking up the key forward posts. Hawthorn haven’t been able to score over the first two weeks of the season, and it’s difficult to see that improving with what they’ve got at their disposal.
It will be interesting to see how North Melbourne handles being expected to win convincingly, they have been outstanding to start this season, but will they be able to continue this form with expectations around them?
The Hawks are clearly not prioritising winning games, which is the polar opposite at North Melbourne at the moment, and Clarkson will be desperate to get one over Hawthorn after the way things ended in 2021. It may not be as big as the first two rounds of the season, but the Hawks are in for another convincing defeat.
North Melbourne -8.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals: LDU has continued his impressive form from the back half of 2022, firmly establishing himself as one of the best midfielders in the AFL. Davies-Uniacke has recorded 30 disposals in both games to kick off 2023, and has hit the 25+ disposal mark in nine of his last ten games.
Harry Sheezel 25+ Disposals: Harry Sheezel has burst on the AFL scene racking up plenty of the footy across half back, recording 34 & 30 disposals in his first two games. Sheezel ranks fifth in the AFL for disposals, and has been a huge part of the Kangaroos undefeated start to the season.
Jack Ziebell 25+ Disposals: Jack Ziebell has returned to his half back role that saw him record huge disposal tallies in 2021. The former skipper is back to farming the kick ins with 5 kick ins in Round One, and 7 in Round Two which were both game highs for North Melbourne. North Melbourne play on from 91% of their kick ins, the fourth highest in the league, which has seen Ziebell record 26 disposals in both games to start 2023.
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