Traditional rivals Hawthorn and Essendon kick off their seasons off at the MCG on Sunday afternoon. There’s very low expectations surrounding both of these sides, and they’ll be desperate to kick off their campaign with a win.
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AFL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawhtorn vs Essendon
Sunday 3:20pm AEDT, March 19th, MCG
The big news out of the Essendon camp came on Friday morning with Peter Wright dislocating his shoulder just hours after signing a four year extension. Wright’s absence sees a massive burden placed on new recruit Sam Weidemen and youngster Harry Jones.
Essendon have opted to bring Andrew Phillips after Wright’s injury creating a rare occurance of both sides playing two genuine rucks. The battle of Draper and Phillips vs Reeves and Meek will be an interesting watch.
Hawthorn will be without Mitch Lewis who’s recovering from a knee injury suffered in pre-season, while Harry Morrison failed to overcome a hamstring issue. Pick number 7 Cameron Mackenzie will make his debut, with Karl Amon, Fergus Greene and Lloyd Meek all playing their first game for the Hawks.
The Hawks made their first genuine commitment to a rebuild in the 2022 trade period, with Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Merea and Jack Gunston all leaving the club as the Hawks looked to load up with youth. The Hawks did acquire Karl Amon and Lloyd Meek who will add some quality to the side, however expectations aren’t sky high at Waverly in 2023.
The Bombers had a torturous off season which has seen a new coach, a new CEO and a new president all enter the club. Essendon made some solid acquisitions in Sam Weidemen and Will Setterfield, however new coach Brad Scott has made it very clear that the Bombers have plenty of work to do to get to where they need to be.
Essendon conceded 94 points per game in 2022, the third most in the league and it’s a clear point of emphasis that Brad Scott and the Bombers have been working on during pre-season. How they perform against the Hawks won’t be the biggest insight on if they’ve improved in the defensive half, however they have to show some signs of structural improvement on Sunday.
Hawthorn have been slowly developing a backline with the likes of Sicily, Jiath, Day and Frost becoming a talented partnership. It’s the Hawks strongest position on the ground, however given the lack of proven talent in their midfield, the ball could spend plenty of time in the Hawks backline this season. With Essendon’s three most dangerous forwards out in Wright, Stringer and McDonald-Tipungwuti, the Hawks will have confidence that they can contain the Bombers forward line.
There will be plenty of young talent on display in this fixture, the Hawks have the youngest list in the AFL and the Bombers have the third youngest.
Given how young both sides are and the key absences both the Hawks and Bombers have in their forward lines, this game is difficult to pick. Essendon’s experience and depth in the midfield however looms as a key point of difference. With Merrett, Shiel, Parish and Setterfield, they’re got proven ball winners that can give the Bombers control from clearances, Essendon ranked fourth in the AFL for centre clearances in 2022.
With Mitch Lewis out, it’s difficult to see Hawthorn creating enough avenues to kick a winning score. Across the last four games of 2022, the Hawks averaged 66 points per game and failed to kick more than ten goals in any of those matches. With no Gunston or Lewis, it’s hard to see Hawthorn overcoming these attacking deficiencies. The Bombers have won four of their last five games against the Hawks, and they'll continue their strong record over their rivals on Sunday afternoon.
Essendon
$1.70 (1.5 Units)
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Will Setterfield 20+ Disposals: Essendon brought in Setterfield to add some much needed height to the Bombers midfield, and the former Blue looks to have an excellent role, getting plenty of centre bounce attendances in the preseason. Setterfield picked up 25 disposals in Essendon’s official practice match a fortnight ago, and with Finn Maginness set to tag Zach Merrett, there will be plenty of opportunities for Setterfield to rack up the footy.
Mason Redman 20+ Disposals: Redman had a breakout season in 2022, averaging a career high 21 disposals. Redman had increased responsibilities taking more kick ins, and his role across half back suits him to rack up plenty of possessions. Redman hit the 20 disposal mark ten times last season, including a 27 disposal performance against the Hawks.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: Newcombe was outstanding in his first full season in the AFL, averaging 22 disposals per game. With Mitchell and O’Meara gone, it’s officially Newcombe’s midfield, which should see the youngster soar to another level in 2023. Newcombe passed 25 disposals in five of his last seven games to end 2022, and racked up 28 disposals the last time he faced the Bombers.
Fergus Greene Anytime Goalscorer: Greene dominated at Box Hill for the last two years after being delisted from the Western Bulldogs, and has deservedly earned his spot back in the big time. Greene was ultra impressive in preseason kicking a goal in match simulation against Geelong and kicking three against the Pies in their official practice match.
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