Another race, another Verstappen victory. Another race, another grid penalty spoiling our bets. It really has got to the point where you cannot bet on Formula 1 races until the day of, for fear of a grid penalty spoiling any chance you have of a win. Nevertheless, we move forward, as Verstappen and Red Bull head to a circuit they have dominated in Mexico City, winning 3 of the last 4 races held at the venue. It’s the third last race of the season, and with both championships secured, Red Bull and Max Verstappen will look to continue breaking records this weekend.
2022 Formula 1 Betting Tips
United State Grand Prix Review
As outlined above, Leclerc took a 10-place grid penalty, which shifted the entire race weekend, as Ferrari had looked quick at the Austin circuit. Carlos Sainz took Pole Position, just ahead of teammate Leclerc and Verstappen, and a Ferrari 1-2 on the grid would have been tremendous for the Scuderia. However, with Leclerc dropping to 12th, Verstappen moved up to P2 on the grid. Max got the better start, and led into turn 1, whilst the luckless Sainz was punted from behind by George Russell, and out of the race.
Hamilton made a fight of the race; however, this was down to several safety cars keeping it close, and Max always seemed to have the pace to control the race. Despite being on medium tyres for his final stint, he had much better pace than Hamilton on the hard tyre, whilst also preserving them enough to get to the end. Verstappen appears in a league of his own right now, with the rest playing for 2nd.
Mexican Grand Prix Preview
Betting on the winner of the race is almost not worth it now, with Verstappen being priced so short, however unless something major happens, he just wins. Given this, the bets will be drying up for the final 3 races, particularly regarding race winner markets, and unit sizes and total outlay will also drop.
Interestingly, Verstappen has never taken Pole Position at this circuit, so a Leclerc or Sainz Pole isn’t a terrible look. Perez also isn’t bad value; however, I don’t know if he has it in him in qualifying to get the job done.
I’ll be looking a little further down than usual this week, with Seb Vettel seemingly gaining a couple of tenths a lap since announcing his retirement over the summer break. He, along with the Aston Martin team in general, have improved drastically, and Vettel securing a top 10 finish is a great bet this week. Vettel has always performed well at this circuit, and I see that continuing this weekend.
I’d once again expect to see Mercedes in and around the podium finishing positions, given the likelihood of 1 or 2 of the top 4 runners experiencing issues, with Hamilton the obvious choice given how well he is driving.
Aside from that, not a lot to offer. I’d stress again not to bet until race day, or at the very least wait until you’ve got news on grid penalties. Whilst you might not get the best of the number, betting into a market without this key information is crazy and shouldn’t be done.
More bets:
Ferrari Pole Position - $1.90 @ Unibet (1u)
Seb Vettel (Top 10 finish) - $2.12 @ Palmerbet (1u)
Lewis Hamilton (Top 3 finish) - $2.30 @ Betfair (1u)
Max Verstappen (Race Winner)
$1.64 (2 Units)
