The Giants host Geelong in the nation’s capital for a crucial Saturday twilight clash at Manuka Oval. Geelong will be looking to bounce back after a rare loss at home, while the Giants will be aiming to keep their momentum rolling after a big win last week.
Jack Tobin has you covered with his preview and tips for this clash, and make sure to check out our AFL Tips page for BeforeYouBet’s coverage of every game of the 2022 season.
GWS vs Geelong Preview & Betting Tips
Manuka Oval, Saturday 7th May, 4:35pm AEST
GWS
Injuries: Jack Buckley, Brent Daniels, Phil Davis, Jacob Hopper, Daniel Lloyd
The Giants came out of their 59 point win over the Crows with no new injuries, and head to Canberra with an unchanged lineup. The Giants picked up their second win of the season in Adelaide last week, as their senior players led a much needed response. Toby Greene (4 goals), Josh Kelly (41 disposals) and Stephen Coniglio (20 disposals, 3 goals) all starred in the comprehensive victory.
The Giants midfield were utterly dominant against Adelaide recording +58 disposals, +27 contested possessions, +17 hitouts, +6 clearances and +20 tackles. GWS face a much stronger opposition this weekend, but will need their midfield to produce another big performance if they’re to win. The Giants have run a two ruck system in the last fortnight to great success, winning the hitout count by 75 across those two games. The Cats have struggled in ruck for quite some time, so if Braydon Preuss and Matt Flynn can give the Giants midfield first use, it will give them a major advantage.
Despite an improvement over the last two weeks, GWS rank 15th in the AFL for scoring and 12th for inside 50’s. If their midfield doesn’t get on top of the Cats in this clash, it’s difficult to see them finding a way to win given their inability to transition the ball from defence to forward 50 this season.
Geelong
Injuries: Joel Selwood, Shaun Higgins, Jon Ceglar, Toby Conway, Jack Henry, Max Holmes, Sam Menegola, Gary Rohan, Sam Simpson, Rhys Stanley,
It’s been a busy week with five changes for the Cats with skipper Joel Selwood, Shaun Higgins and Max Holmes out of the side through injury. Ollie Dempsey and Luke Dalhaus have been omitted, as young midfielder Cooper Stephens will make his debut against the Giants. Patrick Dangerfield returns after missing the last two games, with Quniton Narkle and Francis Evans rounding out the inclusions.
Geelong’s loss against Fremantle came largely down to a lack of execution, with the Cats winning many key statistical battles including disposals (+2), contested possessions (+3), inside 50’s (+7), hitouts (+8) and marks (+18). Geelong dominated possession and territory late in the three point loss against the Dockers, but just couldn’t capitalise.
Although it’s early, there are signs that Geelong’s change in style is working with the Cats ranking high in the AFL in many key facets. Geelong are ranked 4th for scoring, 4th in tackles, 2nd for inside 50’s and 2nd in fewest opposition inside 50’s.
Match Prediction
These two clubs have been evenly matched in recent seasons with the last seven encounters between the Giants and the Cats sides has seen four wins for Geelong, three for GWS and a draw.
Although the Cats are coming off a loss, their form in 2022 clearly stacks up better than the Giants. Geelong are seventh with a 4-3 record featuring losses to Fremantle (3rd), Sydney (5th) and Hawthorn (11th). While GWS are fifteenth with a 2-5 record featuring wins against Adelaide (12th) and Gold Coast (14th). This will be a more even contest than their ladder positions suggest given the level of talent in each side, but Geelong are playing a better brand of footy in 2022.
Geelong -3.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Isaac Smith has had a remarkably consistent start to his time at Geelong, averaging 22 disposals in 2021 and averaging 22 disposals through the first seven games of 2022. Smith had a quiet game last week with only 18 disposals, however his three games prior saw returns of 29, 23 and 25 disposals. Smith’s last three games against the Giants with 20 minute quarters have produced 23, 28 and 26 disposal games.
Isaac Smith 25+ Disposals, $1.88 with Ladbrokes
Tom Hawkins leads the Coleman Medal race with 22 goals this season and his last five weeks have been red hot. Hawkins has kicked 3, 5, 3, 4 and 2 goals in his last five games, and in his last four games against GWS he’s had returns of 5, 1, 2, 3 and 4 goals.
Tom Hawkins 3+ Goals, $2.10 with Ladbrokes
Isaac Cumming is in the midst of a breakout season, with the 23 year old averaging a career high 24 disposals. Cumming has picked up 29, 22 and 33 disposals in his last three games, with an increase in his kick ins helping lift his disposal output. In all six of his games this season, Cumming has been the leading kick in player for GWS. Cumming provides excellent value in the disposal markets.
Isaac Cumming 25+ Disposals, $2.02 with Ladbrokes
