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2022 AFL Round 21: Hawthorn vs Gold Coast Preview & Betting Tips

August 4th 2022, 12:57pm, By: Jack Tobin

Hawks vs Suns Betting Tips

Saturday afternoon football kicks off in Launceston as Hawthorn take on the Gold Coast Suns from 1:45pm! Both sides have shown plenty of promise in the last month, so this should be an entertaining clash.

Jack Tobin has got you covered with his preview and be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for previews on every game this season.

Hawthorn vs Gold Coast Betting Tips

UTAS Stadium, Saturday 6th August, 1:45pm (AEST)

Hawthorn

Injuries: Lachlan Bramble, Tyler Brockman, Sam Frost, Mitch Lewis, Jacob Koschitzke, Seamus Mitchell, Josh Morris, Ned Reeves, Liam Shiels, Chad Wingard, James Worpel, Changkuoth Jiath (suspension)

Ruckman Ned Reeves will miss the rest of the season after being sent in for surgery on his shoulder that saw him miss seven weeks earlier in the year. Mitch Lewis (knee) and Josh Morris (shoulder) are out this week after suffering injuries in the loss to St Kilda. Changkuoth Jiath was given a one week suspension after a dangerous tackle on Jack Steele, while Jarman Impey should return after being managed last week.

Hawthorn made a late charge to give the Saints an almighty scare last week, but it was in vain after a horrendous performance in the first two and half quarters. The Hawks trailed by 44 points at the ten minute mark of the third quarter, after conceding eight of the first nine goals. Hawthorn were beaten in clearances by 15, and in contested possessions by 13. 

The Hawks have won three of their last four games, on the back of a vastly improved forward line. Across the season Hawthorn have only averaged 83 points per game, but during their three consecutive wins they averaged 103 points. The Hawks last game in Launceston they put up 117 points against the Lions, and will need another efficient performance inside forward 50.

Gold Coast

Injuries: Charlie Ballard, Connor Budarick, Brandon Ellis, Joel Jeffery, Ben King, Wil Powell, Bodhi Uwland, Lachie Weller

Brandon Ellis was a late withdrawal last week with a shoulder injury but is expected to be available to face the Hawks, meaning there should only be one change to the Gold Coast side for this week's trip to Tasmania.

Gold Coast held off a fast finishing West Coast outfit last week to pick up their ninth win of the 2022 season. Touk Miller (31 disposals & 16 clearances) and Noah Anderson (29 disposals & 6 clearances) gave the Suns a massive advantage in the midfield, where they won clearances by 15 and inside 50’s by 17. The Suns are still a mathematical chance to play finals, but they need to win all of their remaining games and have other results go their way.

Gold Coast’s biggest advantage in this clash will be in the middle of the ground. Hawthorn are one of the worst midfield’s in the competition, ranking seventeenth for clearances and thirteenth for disposals, while the Suns rank first in the AFL for hitouts and fourth for clearances. When these two sides met back in Round 11, Gold Coast won hitouts by 32, inside 50’s by 18 and clearances by 12.  

Match Prediction

On the surface this game shouldn’t hold many issues for Gold Coast, however with the game being played in Launceston it does bring Hawthorn into the equation. This game will be a tight encounter, however with the advantage the Suns have in the middle of the ground they should be able to get the game on their terms.

With Mitch Lewis and Changkuoth Jiath out for Hawthorn they lose their best target up forward and their best rebounding defender, which are massive losses, especially if they can't gain the ascendancy in the midfield. If the Suns can win the terriotory battle, the Hawks don't have the quality to score from their defensive 50. Gold Coast have won their last two matches against the Hawks and with their finals hopes still alive, Stewie Dew’s side has plenty to play for. 


Gold Coast -1.5

$1.90 (2 Units)

Prop Bets

Dylan Moore has moved into the Hawks midfield in the last month with great success, with performances of 29, 25, 25 and 21 disposals in his last four games. Moore has had a drastic increase in his CBA’s, averaging 15 per game over the last month, the second most for Hawthorn in that time period.

Dylan Moore 25+ Disposals, $1.98 with Ladbrokes

Noah Anderson is beginning his ascent to becoming one of the premier midfielders in the competition, averaging 26 disposals per game in 2022. Anderson has had disposal returns of 30, 26, 24, 31 and 29 in his last five games and with Touk Miller likely to receive a tag from Finn Maginness, there should be plenty of opportunities for Anderson to win the footy.

Noah Anderson 30+ Disposals, $2.35 with Ladbrokes

Mabior Chol has had an excellent first season at the Suns, and his second half of the season has been up there with the best key forwards in the comp. Since Round 9 Chol has kicked 28 goals, with hauls of 4, 1, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2, 2 and 5 goals. Hawthorn have struggled against key forwards this season, and they’ve got a tough task trying to contain Chol with the form he’s in.

Mabior Chol 3+ Goals, $2.50 with Ladbrokes

 

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