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2022 AFL Round 16: Carlton vs St Kilda Preview & Betting Tips

June 30th 2022, 5:16pm, By: Andy Rosos

Blues vs Saints Betting Tips

Friday night footy presents an interesting clash in Round 16 as the Blues take on the Saints from Marvel Stadium. Andy Rosos has you covered with his full preview and betting tips for the clash below. 

Remember to head to our AFL Tips page for full previews for every game in Round 16 this weekend. 

Carlton vs St Kilda Betting Tips

Marvel Stadium, Friday 1st July, 7.50pm (AEST)

Carlton 

Injuries: Jordan Boyd, David Cunningham, Ed Curnow, Sam Durdin, Caleb Marchbank, Oscar McDonald, Mitch McGovern, Luke Parks, Sam Phil, Marc Pittonet, Jacob Weitering, Zac Williams (Out) Jack Martin, Matt Owies, Lachie Fogarty, Adam Cerra (Test)

The Blues continue to get the job done week in week out despite battling the longest injury list in the league. Their depth has been on full display this season considering they will have as many as 9 best 22 players out on Friday night. 

Carlton were too good for the Dockers in a brilliant performance at Marvel Stadium on Saturday. The Blues recorded a 31 point win on the back of a dominant game from midfielder Sam Walsh, who racked up 40 touches and 7 clearances. Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay continued their strong season, booting another four goals between them.

On the contrary to the Saints, the Blues are primed to make a charge at the top two with games against the Eagles, Giants, Crows and Magpies in the run home. 

St Kilda

Injuries: Dan McKenzie, Jack Bytel, Nick Coffield, Dan Hannebery, Jack Hayes, Mitch Owens, Jarryn Geary (Out) 

The Saints will be without key wingman Dan McKenzie, but they should get Paddy Ryder and Brad Hill back in the line-up after the two missed through management and personal reasons respectively. 

The Saints were completely derailed by their bye round a few weeks ago. They were in the top four heading into the week off but have lost in embarrassing performances to Essendon and Sydney in the last two weeks to fall out of the top eight.

Luckily, the Saints got their skipper Jack Steele back in the line-up, which helps them monumentally in the midfield. They have an extremely tough run home though, with games against Carlton, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney in the run home. 

Match Prediction

There’s no doubt that the Blues are in better form than the Saints at the moment, but St Kilda is one team that has given Carlton massive issues over recent history. 

St Kilda has won six of their last eight against the Blues by an average margin of 36.2 points. I think they keep this game closer than most think and I actually like the value of the ‘any other result’ in the wire to wire market. The Saints have been inconsistent throughout games this season, often getting off to slow starts before playing great 2nd and 3rd quarters.

W2W - Any Other Result

$1.90 (2 Units)

 

Prop Bets

Overs look a solid play here. The Saints defence was one of the best in the league at the start of the season but they have dropped away over recent weeks. The last time these two teams faced off they put up 193 total points at Marvel Stadium. 

Over 164.5 Points ($1.88 at Ladbrokes)

Like the odds for Brad Hill to have 25+ here. The running half-back has had at least 25 touches in three of his last four games including a couple of big 30+ games. Should be well rested after a week off and I think the Saints will look to play more aggressive through the middle of the ground after copping lots of flack for not doing so the past two weeks. That is when Hill is at his most dangerous. 

Brad Hill 25+ Disposals ($2.75 at Ladbrokes)

 

Moneyball

 

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