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2022 AFL Round 11: Collingwood vs Carlton Preview & Betting Tips

May 27th 2022, 9:14pm, By: Jack Tobin

AFL Magpies vs Blues Betting Tips

One of football’s biggest rivalries adds another chapter on Sunday afternoon as Collingwood and Carlton face off at the MCG from 3:20pm AEST. Both teams are coming off stirring wins last weekend, and this is going to be a massive clash!

Jack Tobin has you covered with a full preview for this game, and you can head to our AFL Tips page for coverage on every game of the 2022 AFL season.

Collingwood vs Carlton Preview & Betting Tips

MCG, Sunday 29th May, 3:20pm AEST

Collingwood

Injuries: Mason Cox, Charlie Dean, Brodie Grundy, Ash Johnson, Will Kelly, Nathan Kreuger, Jack Madgen, Jordan Roughead, Tom Wilson

Mason Cox is a chance to be available this weekend after being subbed out with a dislocated finger against Fremantle. The Pies brought in Trey Ruscoe, Caleb Poulter and Reef McInnes into their extended squad for Sunday’s match, with no omissions at this stage.

Collingwood produced their most impressive performance of the season, in a gutsy 36 point win over Fremantle in Perth last weekend. The Pies lost the disposal count by 47, but won the inside 50 count by 14 as their manic front half pressure shone in the wet conditions. Collingwood laid a staggering 89 tackles, nearly 30 more than their average per game this season.

Given the way Carlton have moved the ball this season, if Collingwood can bring the manic pressure they have at their best this year, they’re going to cause the Blues some serious issues. They’re not going to be able to match the scoring capability Carlton has, but if they can play the game in their front half, they’ll be a red hot chance. 

Carlton

Injuries: David Cunningham, Ed Curnow, Caleb Marchbank, Oscar McDonald, Mitch McGovern, Harry McKay, Alex Mirkov, Luke Parks, Marc Pittonet, Zac Williams

Carlton confirmed during the week that Oscar McDonald will miss the rest of the season with a back injury. Jack Martin and Jack Newnes have been brought into the extended squad, along with Paddy Dow and Jordan Boyd. Unused medi-sub Brodie Kemp is the only out from the squad that faced Sydney last Friday.

The Blues moved to 8-2 with a fifteen point win over the Swans that typified the way most of the games have played out this season. A nine goal second quarter saw Carlton ahead by 38 points at half time, before a second half fadeout saw them nearly lose. Coming up against Coleman Medal leader Charlie Curnow who kicked six last week, Collingwood will be seriously concerned given the way Tom Lynch dominated Darcy Moore a fortnight ago. 

Carlton has a major advantage at stoppages with the physical advantage they’ll have over the Pies midfielders. The Blues rank third in the AFL for contested possessions, while Collingwood ranks sixteenth. Collingwood doesn’t have anyone who can match up with Patrick Cripps and George Hewett, who could cause havoc in the middle of the ground.

Match Prediction

This is the most anticipated clash between these two sides in quite some time, with both of these clubs rejuvenated in 2022. However at 8-2 and 5-5, the Blues are still a fair way ahead of the Pies. Carlton have Collingwood comfortably covered in the midfield and up forward, with the Pies conceding an average score of 95 points in their last three games at the MCG.

The Blues are 3-0 at the ‘G this season, and have kicked over 100 points in each of their past four games. Carlton has an average winning margin of 23 points this season and six of their eight wins have been above nine points, the Blues are in red hot form and will extend their winning streak to five games.

Carlton -8.5

$2.00 (1.5 Units)

 

Prop Bets

Charlie Curnow is back and better than ever, leading the Coleman Medal with 33 goals from ten games. Curnow has kicked 24 goals in his last six games, and has hit the three goal mark six times this season. Collingwood has struggled against key forwards in the last month with Aaron Naughton (3 goals), Tom Lynch (6), Levi Casboult (4) and Mabior Chol (3) all have success against the Pies.

Charlie Curnow 3+ Goals, $1.83 with Ladbrokes

With conditions looking like they’ll hold up well on Sunday, the over on the total points looks the way to go. Seven of Carlton’s ten games this season have gone over 174 points, while six of Collingwood’s ten games this season have gone over 174 points. The Blues are the fifth highest scoring team in the competition in 2022, and should be able to continue that form on Sunday.

Total Points Over 173.5, $1.88 with Ladbrokes

George Hewett has arguably been the recruit of the year, averaging 30 disposals per game through his first eight games in navy blue. Hewett has hit the 30 disposal mark in his last four games and hasn’t had a game with less than 28 disposals this season. Hewett has a major size advantage of the Collingwood midfield, and should be set for a big performance against the Pies.  

George Hewett 30+ Disposals, $2.05 with Ladbrokes 

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