The fans aren't attending but the 2022 AFL season rolls on with Round 10 concluding over the weekend. No one wants to watch the Eagles or Roos right now, but we enjoyed a beauty on Friday night between Carlton and Sydney and a classic shootout on Sunday as the Hawks upset the Lions. Freo are getting the staggers with two poor losses in a row, and now have to dust themselves off to face an undefeated Melbourne side next weekend.
Interestingly our two Brownlow medal leaders Patrick Cripps and Lachie Neale were subdued as their rivals close the gap to setup a potentially exciting 2022 Brownlow Medal count.
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 10 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 10 Overview
Clayton Oliver ($5.80) is the big firmer in the Brownlow betting markets after his wonderful performance against North Melbourne. Teammate Christian Petracca ($8.00) will also be in the votes as the two Demons close the gap on our runaway leaders Patrick Cripps and Lachie Neale. Other standouts from Round 10 were Charlie Curnow who is emerging as a superstar of the competition, and Marcus Bontempelli who put in his best performance of the season.
AFL Round 10 Brownlow Votes
Carlton 15.12.102 def Sydney 13.9.87
A true Friday night blockbuster gave Carlton the chance to prove their premiership credentials as they knocked over fellow contenders Sydney. Charlie Curnow was immense with 6 goals from 11 disposals and 6 marks. Sam Walsh (34 disposals) and George Hewett (32 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances) won plenty of ball while Jacob Weitering (14 disposals, 7 marks) should be considered for votes for his brilliant defensive work on Lance Franklin. Luke Parker (26 disposals, 9 marks, 7 tackles, 1 goal) was best for the Swans.
Charlie Curnow - 3
Jacob Weitering - 1
Sam Walsh - 1
George Hewett - 1
Geelong 11.16.82 def Port Adelaide 7.5.47
Geelong have snapped the winning streak of the Power with a solid victory. Cam Guthrie (38 disposals, 10 clearances) was back to his best, with Tom Stewart (27 disposals, 8 marks) and Jeremy Cameron (24 disposals, 3 goals) providing good support. Dan Houston (30 disposals, 11 marks) was a stand out for the Power, while Ollie Wines (29 disposals, 7 marks) was also busy.
Cam Guthrie - 3
Dan Houston - 2
Jeremy Cameron - 1
Western Bulldogs 15.16.106 def Gold Coast 13.9.87
The Dogs did enough to get the points against the Suns with Marcus Bontempelli (24 disposals, 8 marks, 7 clearances 3 goals) finally finding some form. Bailey Smith (34 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Jack Macrae (34 disposals, 10 clearances) were as busy as ever for the Dogs, while David Swallow (25 disposals, 7 clearances) amd Joel Jeffrey (5 goals, 10 disposals) were best for the Suns.
Marcus Bontempelli - 3
Bailey Smith - 2
David Swallow - 0.5
Joel Jeffrey - 0.5
North Melbourne 8.5.53 def by Melbourne 14.16.100
North stuck with Melbourne for three quarters but the Dees pulled away in the end to remain undefeated through 10 rounds of the season. Clayton Oliver is an easy three Brownlow votes in this one with a tremendous game of 45 disposals, 6 tackles and 11 clearances. Christian Petracca (30 disposals, 6 clearances) was also superb as the two young bulls led the way. The North defenders were kept extremely busy with one of Luke Davies-Uniacke (27 disposals, 6 tackles), Luke McDonald (31 disposals), Bailey Scott (27 disposals, 12 marks) and Aidan Corr (29 disposals, 13 marks) likely to pinch the minor vote.
Clayton Oliver - 3
Christian Petracca - 2
Luke McDonald - 0.5
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 0.5
Adelaide 9.15.69 def by St.Kilda 14.6.90
Adelaide were right in the contest, but the Saints kicked the last four goals to claim an important victory. Brad Hill was all class with his 30 disposals, 10 marks and 1 goal, while Jack Sinclair (32 disposals) and Brad Crouch (31 disposals, 1 goal) won plenty of ball in the absence of skipper Jack Steele. Up forward, Max King was the difference between the two sides with 6 goals straight from his 7 disposals and 6 marks. Brodie Smith (28 disposals, 11 marks) and Jordan Dawson (22 disposals, 10 marks, 2 goals) were best for the Crows.
Brad Hill - 3
Brad Crouch - 2
Max King - 1
Richmond 11.14.80 def Essendon 7.6.48
Dreamtime was back at the G as the Tigers were too strong for an improved Bombers outfit. Dion Prestia won the Yiooken Award for his 36 disposals and 6 clearances and that should be good for the three Brownlow votes. Liam Baker (30 disposals, 6 tackles) and Jayden Short (29 disposals, 9 marks) were also busy. Darcy Parish once again racked up possessions with 43 disposals, 8 tackles and 6 clearances for the Bombers.
Dion Prestia - 3
Liam Baker - 2
Darcy Parish - 1
GWS Giants 21.12.138 def West Coast 13.8.86
The Eagles copped another hiding as the Giants won their first game under new caretaker coach Mark McVeigh. Stephen Coniglio enjoyed being back in the guts with 36 disposals, 6 marks and 7 clearances, while Josh Kelly (29 disposals, 9 tackles) and Harry Perryman (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) also won plenty of ball. The goals were shared around but James Peatling (23 disposals, 11 marks, 3 goals) was a stand out.
Stephen Coniglio - 3
Josh Kelly - 2
James Peatling - 1
Hawthorn 18.9.117 def Brisbane 17.10.112
In an entertaining, high-scoring contest in Launceston, the Hawks struck a big upset as they knocked off the Lions. Jai Newcombe’s star continues to rise (Rising Star perhaps?) as he collected 27 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances and a goal in a best-on-ground effort. Tom Mitchell (36 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances, 1 goal) and James Sicily (24 disposals, 7 marks) were also important in the win. Jarryd Lyons (32 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances) and Daniel Rich (33 disposals, 1 goal) were best for the Lions.
Jai Newcombe - 3
Tom Mitchell - 2
Jarryd Lyons - 1
Fremantle 6.8.44 def by Collingwood 12.8.80
The upsets continued to round out Round 10 action as the Pies defeated the fancied Dockers in heavy conditions in Perth. Jack Crisp (27 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) continued his consistent season, while Patrick Lipinski (29 disposals, 6 marks) and Darcy Cameron (12 disposals, 7 marks, 8 tackles, 22 hitouts, 1 goal) were influential. Up forward it was the sub Oli Henry who hit the scoreboard with 4 goals from 13 disposals. Will Brodie (36 disposals, 6 tackles, 11 clearances, 1 goal), David Mundy (34 disposals, 1 goal) and Caleb Serong (29 disposals, 9 tackles, 7 clearances) could also feature in the Brownlow votes in a tricky game.
Jack Crisp - 3
Will Brodie - 2
Caleb Serong - 0.5
Oli Henry - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
