A massive 14-game slate on Saturday, after the Thanksgiving Day shutdown of the league, gives us a lot of opportunities to try and find some value today. The cream is starting to rise to the top of both divisions, however there are still several teams with key injuries that need to get healthy sooner rather than later.
2022-23 NBA Betting Tips: Saturday 26th November
Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics
TD Garden, 12:00pm AEDT
If it’s not broken, why fix it? The Celtics and Kings have been scoring at a ridiculous clip this season, currently ranking 1st (Kings) and 2nd (Celtics) in points scored per game. Flip those rankings, and you also have the number 1 and 2 ranked offenses in the league by efficiency. And whilst the Celtics defence has started to show more in the past week, it still isn’t near the level they showed last season.
Nine of 18 Celtics games have gone over this total this season, whilst seven of the Kings’ 17 matches have gone over. Whilst this doesn’t seem to make the case for an over, it shows against the right opposition that both these teams can score big. In particular, the Kings have averaged 242.9 points scored per game over their past 8 matches.
There are no injuries for either team going into this game, and if the Kings can keep up their crazy offensive numbers today, this number will fly over the total. A massive number, but I’m willing to take it on.
Over 235.5 Points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers
Bankers Life Fieldhouse, 12:00pm AEDT
This is another big number, but this time I’m taking the under. With a total this high, I need to see two of the absolute best offenses in the league, and whilst both the Nets and Pacers are top half of the league when it comes to points scored and offensive efficiency, they aren’t at the level of the Celtics and Kings.
These two teams have played twice this year, with the first matchup going over this total and the second going under. The first matchup needed insane 3-point shooting from the Pacers to get over the total (23 of 46 – 50%). Given in the second matchup the Pacers could only manage to shoot 28.2% from downtown, I trust the Nets have figured it out and will once again stop the lights out shooting from the Pacers.
Under 235.5 Points
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets
Toyota Center, 12:00pm AEDT
I’m quite surprised by this total, I think it’s way too high. Whilst I’ll concede that both teams struggle defensively, neither team gets anywhere near the elite status on offense. Over bettors would surely be banking fully on both teams refusing to play defence, and both sides to play more efficient offense than they have all season.
I have this total 8.5-points lower than the total currently sits, and in my opinion, even if the Hawks can get going offensively, I don’t believe the Rockets can go with them. The Rockets have only surpassed 115 points 3 times this year, and this will stay under the total if the Rockets can’t put up 115. Add to this the Hawks have only scored 120+ on four occasions, I just can’t get anywhere near this number. Give me the under.
Under 237 Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
