Round 3 of the AFL season kicks off on Thursday night with an interesting clash between the Magpies and Brisbane. Before You Bet and followers went 5/9 in Round 2 for another profitable week and we are now 2.66 units in profit for the year.
Catch our full preview and tips for the Thursday night clash and remember to head to our AFL Betting Tips page for previews for every game in Round 3 and beyond.
AFL Collingwood vs Brisbane Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Thursday 1st April 7.40pm (AEDT)
This game was originally scheduled to take place at the Gabba but due to the recent COVID outbreak in Queensland, the two fixtures between Collingwood and Brisbane this season have been swapped, with this game moving to Marvel Stadium and the game later in the season moving to the Gabba.
It’s been a tough start to the season for the Lions and now when they were set to get a winnable home game at the Gabba, they have been forced to travel to Melbourne to face a feisty Collingwood team on the back of a good win. Brisbane were defeated at home by Sydney in Round 1 before going down to the Cats in a controversial finish in Geelong in Round 2.
The Pies had a tough task in Round 1, facing the Western Bulldogs on Friday night and going down by 16 points. They were much improved in Round 2 as they defeated the Blues on Thursday night by 21 points to move to 1-1 on the season. After getting decimated by the Western Bulldogs midfield core in Round 1, the Collingwood mid were impressive against the Blues, with Jack Crisp, Scott Pendlebury and Taylor Adams racking up 95 touches between them.
On the injury front, the Pies are looking really solid. They got Steele Sidebottom back last week and got through their game against the Blues with only one major setback to Jamie Elliot, who injured his ankle and could miss up to 12 weeks. Apart from Elliot, the Pies should have a full list to pick from this week against the Lions.
For Brisbane, they will be without a few key players heading into the Thursday night clash. Oscar McInerney hurt his ankle in the game against Geelong and will be in a race to prove fitness as will Jarrod Berry with a hamstring injury. The Lions are still without Connor McFadyen, Dan McStay and Cameron Rayner who are all on the sidelines for extended periods with knee injuries.
The Pies start as slight favourites at hoem for this clash, which is probably expected given they were impressive in Round 2 and the Lions have struggled so far this season. However, I really like the value of the Lions here. Their games so far this season have been against really solid sides. They faced a Swans team that looks to be the big improvers in the 2021 season and then had arguably the toughest test in football as they travelled to Geelong to take on the Cats.
The Lions got the chocolates when the teams last met back in Round 15 of last season and I think they get their first win of the year on Thursday night.
Brisbane H2H (2 Units)
Taylor Adams was one of the Pies best in the win over the Blues in Round 2. He racked up 29 touches and was off the ground for an extended period with an injury scare. Seems like he, along with Jack Crisp, are the go to ball winners in the midfield at Collingwood now with Adam Treloar departing and Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom playing gradually less time in the midfield. Back him to surpass 30 touches this week.
Adams 30+ Disposals
We loved the unders on Lachie Neale disposals last week and we are taking them again in Round 3. The reigning Brownlow Medallist has had a slow start to the season with games of just 24 disposals against the Swans and 16 against the Cats last week. In his last two games against the Pies he has failed to surpass the 30 disposal mark. Considering he is paying $1.72 to have 30+ at Sportsbet this week, we assume when his disposal line comes out on the day of the game, it will likely be 30.5 or 31.5. Love the under on either.
Neale Under 31.5 Disposals