The AFL Round 19 Covid merry-go-round has landed on a second “Q Clash” for season 2021 as Brisbane will now face Gold Coast on Saturday afternoon. This match has been scheduled at the GABBA with a 3:20pm start time. The Suns have been improving but this game looms as an important one for the Lions and their run towards finals. Check out our preview and AFL Round 19 betting tips below.
GABBA, Saturday July 24th, 3:20pm AEST
Brisbane looked a premiership contender a few weeks ago, but poor results against the Saints and the Tigers, and some injuries to key personnel, has them currently sitting outside the top four and on the fringe of premiership contender discussions. The Lions will be desperate to bounce back here against the Suns.
A season-ending knee injury to Eric Hipwood was a huge hole in their forward line, but perhaps just as significantly, was the foot injury to key backman Marcus Adams which may shelve him for the next few weeks. Adams was desperately missed last week in poor showing by their defence. Throw in a shoulder injury to Lachie Neale, and the Lions will be under pressure in the lead up to finals.
They face a resurgent Suns who have been very competitive over the past month. After they knocked off the Tigers and Giants in massive upsets, the Suns pushed the Dogs all the way in a narrow defeat last week. The Suns have improved on the back of fast and assured ball movement. They have the legs to run and spread, and if their skill execution holds up, then they can be a difficult team to overcome. However they are also copping their fair share of injury concerns.
Hugh Greenwood is out for the season while Brandon Ellis will miss several weeks with a strained hamstring. Ellis has been one of the Suns best all season. Lachie Weller (concussion) and Nick Holman (abdomen) are both uncertain for this week’s game which leaves plenty of opportunity for others to step up. One who did that last week was Jeremy Sharp who was left alone to do as he pleased on a wing to claim a Rising Star nomination.
The Lions will be keen to assert their authority in the middle and that starts with ruckman Oscar McInerney getting his first hands on the ball. The Suns have run a makeshift ruck setup all season, with Charlie Burgess masquerading as a ruckman, and it’s a big chance for the “Big O” to get back into some form and feed the quality Lions midfield of Lyons, Neale, Zorko and McLuggage. If that happens, they should get enough ball up forward to kick a winning score.
The Lions defence didn’t hold up last week with Jack Riewoldt kicking a bag, so a lot of this game will depend on if Gold Coast’s Ben King can get off the chain or be held in control. At the other end, the Lions will be looking to Joe Daniher and Daniel McStay to stand up as the key forward targets.
The Lions come in as 27.5 point favourites. They’ve won their last five against the Suns going back to 2018, and covered the line on four of those occasions, including in Round 9 where they whalloped the Suns to the tune of 74 points. It’s a great bounce back spot for the Lions, and even though the Suns have been playing well, I think the Lions will be keen to turn their luck around and start their acceleration towards finals.
We’ll bank a Lions victory with a couple of disposals and goal scorer markets to form our Sportsbet Same Game multi.
Last time these two teams met, Jarryd Lyons took home the Marcus Ashcroft Medal for his 37-disposal game. The Suns aren’t exactly close checkers in the midfield, so the 25+ disposals line looks comfortable. If you want better odds, you could even extend to 30+.
Brayden Fiorini is a ball magnet and has been very good recently with 25, 25 and 32 disposals since returning to the Suns side. The 20+ disposals line again shouldn’t be an issue, and again you can gamble and extend to 25+ disposals if you're hunting a bigger price.
Our final leg will be Daniel McStay to kick a goal. McStay has 16 majors for the season, with goals in 9 of his 13 games. However with Hipwood out injured, McStay should see extra opportunity as the main forward line target as big favourites which should allow him to hit the scoreboard here.
Jarryd Lyons 25+ disposals
Brayden Fiorini 20+ disposals
Daniel McStay Anytime Goal Scorer
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, and do not guarantee profits. Please bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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