Round 4 of the 2019 AFL season continues on Friday night with another intriguing fixture. Set to go head to head are the Collingwood Magpies and the Western Bulldogs in front of what’s expected to be a large crowd at the MCG. As usual, we’ve provided a comprehensive preview for the clash, as well as our expert betting tips. Good luck to everyone following!
There is a bunch of great AFL content and resources available at Before You Bet this week, so hit the links below if you want to check any of it out!
- AFL Rolling Premiership Odds Comparison (BetEasy, Ladbrokes, Sportsbet, TAB)
- AFL Round 4 Odds
- AFL Saturday Slate Betting Tips (Coming Soon)
- AFL Sunday Slate Betting Tips (Coming Soon)
Friday 12th of April, 7:50pm AEST, MCG
We’ve got a very interesting game on our hands on Friday night with the Magpies set to host the Bulldogs at the MCG. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in Round 2 and will want to bounce back with a win, but who will it be?
The Magpies have been one of many disappointing teams so far in 2019 as they’ve managed just the one win from their opening three games. A first up loss to the top of the table Cats was followed by a great win over the Tigers, however they were simply outgunned in Round 3 when they hosted the Eagles in a Grand Final rematch.
The Magpies midfield is seen by many as the strongest in the competition, although they were soundly beaten last weekend by the Eagles engine room. Andre Gaff (35 disposals), Dom Sheed (24 disposals, three goals), and Luke Shuey (24 disposals) all got a hold of the Pies for large portions of the match. Mason Cox (one goal, seven disposals) was beaten again by Jeremy McGovern, while Jordan De Goey (18 disposals, three goals) was threatening throughout.
Despite starting 1-2 on the season we expect the Magpies to go in with a similar team to last week. Darcy Moore rolled his ankle against the Eagles but should be right to play, while Daniel Wells is expected to make his long-awaited return via the VFL.
The Bulldogs were heavy favourites to make it a 3-0 start to the season when they face the Suns last weekend. However, the underdogs got the jump on them early and forced it into a real grind of a game for the Dogs, where they would eventually come up short by five points. A 2-1 start still has them in good stead, but it was a definite missed opportunity that could come back to haunt them down the track.
Last weekend’s problems certainly didn’t stem from their midfield as Marcus Bontempelli (34 disposals), Jack Macrae (33), and Tom Liberatore (30) all found plenty of the ball. It was more so their ability (or lack thereof) to defend the Suns speed in transition that was their undoing.
The Dogs can potentially welcome back a whole host of their ‘best 22’ with all of Lin Jong, Jason Johannisen, Jackson Trengove, and Tom Boyd reportedly healthy. Expect one or two of them to come straight into their AFL team with the others to play for their VFL affiliate.
2018 R10 – Collingwood (90–55) Western Bulldogs
2017 R1 – Collingwood (86-100) Western Bulldogs
2016 R21 – Western Bulldogs (95-92) Collingwood
2016 R10 – Collingwood (53-74) Western Bulldogs
2015 R17 – Western Bulldogs (104-86) Collingwood
It’s a tough little fixture we’ve got on our hands on Friday night. The Magpies are the obvious choice but open as red-hot $1.20 favourites, while the Bulldogs have been given little to no chance at $4.50. Interestingly, the Bulldogs have lost just one of their past five meetings with the Magpies, although that loss came in their most recent meeting in Round 10 2018, where they were thumped by 35 points (90-55) at the MCG.
While there’s no meat on the bone for the Pies at $1.20 in the head to head market, we do see them as clearly the better team of the two in this match-up. For this reason, we’ll take them at the line of 28.5 points, which we feel is a 6-10 points too generous from the bookies.
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