The last round of the 2019 AFL home and away season is upon us and the stakes couldn’t be any higher for the teams vying for the final spot in the eight. There’s a huge five-game slate of action on this Saturday, which we’ve provided previews and betting tips for below. Check them out and good luck to everyone following us this weekend!
AFL Saturday will be our focus today, but you can head to our AFL Tips Page for a bunch of content for Round 23 in the AFL including preview and tips for EVERY GAME.
AFL Round 23 Saturday Betting Tips
Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints (1:45pm, SCG)
The Swans took advantage of a disinterested Demons outfit last weekend to win by 53 points and break a six-match losing streak. Aliir Aliir was best afield in what was quite possibly the most boring game of footy in 2019. The Swans get a chance to finish a disappointing season off with a win when they host the Saints this weekend.
The Saints led at every change against the Blues last weekend, only to go down by 10 points at the final siren. Dan Hannebery continued his return to form with 24 touches and a goal, while Rowan Marshall was solid with 17 touches, seven tackles, and 33 hitouts. Marshall has been a real bright spot for the Saints in what’s been another tough season.
All eyes will be on Buddy Franklin on Saturday when he lines up for game 300. He’s been a superstar of the competition since day one and will draw another big crowd to watch him and the Swans in his big milestone game. We expect the Swans to deliver a positive result in such a big game for a club champion.
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Melbourne Demons (2:10pm, BA)
North Melbourne went into their Round 22 clash with the Power as slight underdogs, but it certainly didn’t look that way. They absolutely thumped the Power from start to finish to record a huge 86 point victory. There were plenty of great performers on the night, but the two standouts were Ben Brown with (10 goals) and Todd Goldstein (34 disposals, 24 hitouts, one goal).
The Demons have well and truly lost interest in season 2019 and it showed in their Round 22 loss to the Swans. They put in a lacklustre performance to kick just five goals for the match in what turned out to be a 53 point loss. Jake Melksham was the only threat up forward for the Demons and finished with three goals and five behinds.
These two clubs had completely contrasting results in Round 22 and for that reason alone, we’ll be backing in the Kangaroos to cover the spread. Unlike the Demons, North actually seem interested in playing well.
North Melbourne Kangaroos -25.5
$1.91
Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues (4:35pm, GMHBA)
The Cats lost an absolute heartbreaker to the Lions at the Gabba last weekend. It was one of the best matches we’ve seen all season and only adds to the anticipation of the finals. The Cats lost top position as a result of the loss but can get it back if they beat the Blues and the Lions lose to the Tigers.
The Blues continued their impressive run of form under David Teague with a win over the Saints in Round 22. They trailed at every change but managed to run over the top of the Saints with two late fourth quarter goals. Ex-skipper Marc Murphy led the way with 27 disposals and a goal, while Nic Newman (21 disposals, nine marks) continued his strong first year in navy blue.
The Cats are playing for a top two spot and a home qualifying final, so their motivation levels will be high. On the other hand, the Blues will be looking to finish their season on a high and take some momentum into next season. We believe the five-goal line is about right, so we won’t be playing that market. Instead, we’ll be taking the value on offer for Daisy Thomas to collect 20+ and/or 25+ disposals in what will be his last game for the Blues.
VALUE: Dale Thomas 25+ Disposals $3.75
Dale Thomas 20+ Disposals
$1.83
Gold Coast Suns vs GWS Giants (7:25pm, Metricon)
The Suns list is decimated, and the Hawks took full advantage of it in Round 22 when they defeated them by 70 points at the MCG. The Suns simply don’t have the talent to complete at this stage of the season and will be desperate for their season to finish.
The Giants looked like they were in for a real dog fight (pardon the pun) last weekend against the Bulldogs. They led by three points at the main break and were playing decent footy, but that changed drastically when they were kept goalless after half time for the second straight week.
The Giants have had two really poor losses in a row leading into this game, but we still expect them to be too strong for the Suns. We like them to win by 1-39.
West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Hawks (8:10pm, OS)
The Eagles put up a great fight against the Tigers at the MCG last weekend, but eventually fell short by six points in a devastating loss. Shannon Hurn was arguably their best player on the day, providing a constant presence down back and finishing up with 24 disposals. The Eagles are now in third spot and will most likely fall out of the top four if they fail to win this match.
As mentioned above, the Hawks were far too strong for the Suns last weekend in what felt like an exhibition match at certain stages. All eyes were on Jarryd Roughead in his last game and he certainly didn’t disappoint as he finished with six majors. The equation is simple for the Hawks - win on Saturday and hope the Bulldogs lose on Sunday.
Both teams have it all to play for on Saturday night, which should make it an interesting match. The Hawks have been in decent form and we expect them to put up a really good fight against the reigning premiers.
Hawthorn Hawks +27.5
$1.90
Saturday Sportsbet Multi
Swans vs Saints (Swans Win) = $1.43
Kangaroos vs Demons (Kangaroos -25.5) = $1.90
Cats vs Blues (Thomas 20+ Disposals) = $1.83
Suns vs Giants (Suns +48.5) = $1.90
Eagles vs Hawks (Hawks +39.5) = $1.40
Saturday 5-Leg Multi
$13.23
*** WIN TICKETS TO SEE RICHMOND VS BRISBANE ON SUNDAY AT THE MCG ***
