The 2019 AFL season got off to a great start last weekend with nearly a full round of upset results! If you scored more than four or five in your tipping than you were better than most. As for BYB, we had a marginal winning weekend, hitting on 5/9 betting tips, all priced at odds of $1.90 or better.
It was our value tips where punters found some tasty odds, however, as we hit on winners at $4.50, $2.30 and $2.80. We'll look to find some more value this weekend as we provide previews and betting tips for all nine games in Round 2 of the 2019 AFL Premiership season.
Our Round 2 coverage starts with a standalone preview for the Thursday night blockbuster game between the Richmond Tigers and the Collingwood Magpies from the MCG. That game will be our focus today, but if you want previews and tips for the rest of the Round 2 action, make sure you head to our AFL Tips Page.
Thursday 28th March, 7.20pm AEDT, MCG
It'll be a preliminary final rematch on Thursday night as the Tigers look to avenge their shock loss to the Magpies in September last year. The Pies defeated the Tigers by 39 points that night to advance to the Grand Final but will enter Thursday night as underdogs.
The Tigers got their season off to a hot start by defeating the Blues in the annual season opener last Thursday night. Richmond shot out to an early lead, kicking the first five goals of the game before Carlton finally found their feet in the second quarter. The Blues brought the margin back to just 13 points in the third quarter before Richmond, led by some dominant play from Toby Nankervis, Jack Higgins and Trent Cotchin, kicked away in the fourth to claim a 33 point win.
The win wasn't without its setbacks for the Tigers, however, as five time All-Australian defender Alex Rance suffered a season ending ACL injury during the third quarter. The loss of Rance will definetely throw a spanner into the works of the Tigers season but one small positive that can be taken from the blow is that it happened so early in the season, giving the team time to adjust to life without the star backman. Young swingman Noah Balta looks likely to move to defence with Jason Costagna set to return from ankle injury this week.
The injury to Rance is very unlikely to derail the Richmond season, I think it's more likely to prove how good of a side they actually are. Their whole gameplan doesnt rely on defence, it relies on getting the ball forward quickly, by any means neccessary and proceeding to lock it in there with relentless pressure.
Likely Changes: Rance (out) Costagna (in)
The Magpies weren't as impressive in Round 1, as they succumb to the Geelong Cats by seven points at the MCG on Friday night. After kicking out to a 10 point lead in the 3rd quarter, the Pies looked to be in a comfortable position, with their midfield controlling the stoppages and in turn the flow of the game.
Where the Pies came undone was their ability to ind targets inside the forward 50. The Cats racked up 14 marks inside the arc while the Pies had just 7. While they have a relatively small forward line led by the likes of Jamie Elliot, Jordan De Goey and Jaidyn Stephenson, the above average ball use of the Pies midfield, particularly Steele Sidebottom and Scott Pendlebury, should result in more marks inside 50.
If the Pies are to be more competitive in 2019, they need more from big forward Mason Cox, who dominated the last time Collingwood faced the Tigers. Big Cox doesn't neccessarily need to mark everything, he does however, need to create contests and bring the ball to ground for the likes of Elliot, De Goey and Stephenson.
Likely Changes: none
2018 Preliminary - Richmond (8.10.58) lost to Collingwood (15.7.97)
2018 Round 19 - Richmond (16.9.105) defeated Collingwood (12.5.77)
2018 Round 6 - Collingwood (10.10.70) lost to Richmond (16.17.113)
2017 Round 2 - Richmond (14.15.99) defeated Collingwood (11.14.80)
2016 Round 20 - Richmond (14.8.92) defeated Collingwood (11.11.77)
2016 Round 2 - Collingwood (13.9.87) defeated Richmond (12.14.86)
Tough game to call here. The Tigers start as slight 2.5 point favourites but might take some time to adjust to life without Rance. Collingwood should be fired up after a tough Round 1 loss and we attribute a portion of that loss to the greasy conditions on the night which didn't really suit their usual slick ball movement. No rain predicted for Friday, so it should be good conditions for footy, which has us thinking the Collingwood midfield should control this game as they did back in the Prelim last season.
There are some absolutely tantalising midfield matchups on offer here. Dayne Beams vs Dustin Martin head to head could be one for the ages while Adam Trelor and Kane Lambert have dueled in the past. Toby Nankervis was a standout in Round 1 while Brodie Grundy struggled against a part time ruckman in Rhys Stanley, the ruck battle will be massive here. If Grundy can get on top and give his midfield first use, it will go a long way towards winning the match.
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