Normality resumes for Round 16 of the 2019 AFL Premiership Season. We’ve got a Friday night fixture between Hawthorn and Collingwood kicking off a nine-match round that will see five matches play out on Saturday and three more on Sunday.
Today, Hawthorn vs Collingwood will be our focus, but you can head to our AFL Tips Page for a bunch of content for Round 16 in the AFL including preview and tips for EVERY GAME.
What an interesting Friday night fixture we’ve got on our hands here between two old rivals. The Hawks have suffered a few heartbreaking losses in a row and are in real danger of being out of finals contention, while the Magpies are coming off an embarrassing loss last weekend and will be looking to bounce back in a big way. This match will kick off at the MCG on Friday night at 7:50pm (AEST).
The Hawks are going through a really tough time at the moment and find themselves on a four-match losing streak. They looked well on their way to getting back on the winners list last weekend when they hosted the Eagles at the MCG. The Hawks led by seven points during the fourth quarter and had all the momentum on their side, but eventually couldn’t hold out a clutch Eagles side in really trying conditions.
Just over a month ago the Hawks were 5-5 and looked like a team that was going to be fighting for a finals position again this season, however, now at 5-9 they’re in real danger of having finals become mathematically impossible. One great positive from an otherwise disappointing season has been the consistent play of Jaeger O’Meara. The 25-year-old is averaging a career-high 27 disposals, six tackles and seven clearances per game this season.
The Magpies easily had their worst performance last weekend when they went down to the Kangaroos by 44 points at Marvel Stadium. They were dominated from start to finish by the determined Kangaroos, particularly in the midfield with Ben Cunnington (37 disposals) and Jack Ziebell (25 disposals, three goals) running riot. The best Magpie defender on the night was Adam Treloar (40 disposals), although his accountability still wasn’t up to scratch.
While the loss to North Melbourne was an “embarrassing” one according the coach Nathan Buckley, it’s still far from panic stations for the 10-4 Pies. They remain in second spot on the ladder and are just two, maybe three, wins away from clinching another finals berth. Injuries remain a problem for the Pies, although the silver-lining is that their 2018 first round draft pick, Isaac Quayner, will make his debut for the club on Friday night.
The Hawks have had the wood over the Magpies for decades now and lead the head-to-head count 45-20 since 1980. They’ve also beaten the Magpies in 11 of their last 12 meetings dating back to 2012.
Last five meetings:
2018 R1 – Hawthorn (101) defeated Collingwood (67)
2017 R15 – Hawthorn (118) defeated Collingwood (94)
2017 R9 – Collingwood (90) defeated Hawthorn (72)
2016 R23 – Hawthorn (112) defeated Collingwood (111)
2015 R14 – Collingwood (91) lost to Hawthorn (101)
- Collingwood have won eight of their last nine Friday night fixtures.
- Hawthorn have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home fixtures vs Collingwood.
- Hawthorn have won 11 of their past 12 meetings with Collingwood.
- Each of the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone over 160 total points.
The Hawks have been out of sorts for a few weeks now, although you could argue the same thing for the Magpies. Hawthorn have lost for on the spin and look to have forgotten how to run out games, while Collingwood haven’t put together a dominant four quarter performance since their Round 7 win over Port Adelaide. The Magpies will start at around two-and-a-half goal favourites, which seems about right when you some up all of the above.
We’re not prepared to make a play on the head-to-head market in this clash, but we are keen to attack the total points over/under market. Hawthorn vs Collingwood always seem to be really high-scoring affairs, which shows up in the stats with each of their past 12 meetings going over 160 points. It’s expected to be good weather at the MCG on Friday night and with the line being set at just 153.5, we’ll be playing the overs.
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