Round 11 in the AFL offer a fantastic five game Saturday slate headlined by a couple of big games with top eight implications. We’ll be looking to bounce back from a disappointing week in the AFL last weekend as we present our preview and betting tips for all five games on Saturday below!
We’ll be focusing on the Saturday slate today but you can head to our AFL Tips Page for the rest of our Round 11 coverage.
The Magpies got out of jail on Friday night in Sydney against the Swans, winning by seven points after trailing at the start of the last quarter. The win marks their seventh in a row and they currently sit 2nd on the AFL ladder with an 8-2 record. Ruckman Brodie Grundy continued his dominant form this season against the Swans, racking up 18 disposals and a monster 64 hit outs in the win.
The Dockers trailed for the majority of the game in their Round 10 clash against Brisbane but also fought back in the last quarter to claim a 1 point win. Defender Luke Ryan was fantastic in the win, compiling 32 touches and five marks to help the Dockers remain in the top eight with a 5-5 record.
The Dockers have had a surprising start to the season with five wins from 10 games but they really haven’t made any waves away from home, especially not in Melbourne, where they have played just one game for one loss. Tough to see the Pies losing this one at the G but the 33.5 point line does seem a little high, especially with the chance of rain in Melbourne on Saturday. The Dockers are yet to lose a game by more than 25 this season.
The Giants made another strong case as to why they should be considered premiership contenders in Round 10 after travelling to the MCG and comfortably beating the Demons. While the final score was just 24 points, the Giants led by almost 60 at three quarter time and took their foot off the pedal in the last quarter. They have now won four of their last five games by an average margin of 51 points.
On the contrary, the Suns have lost their last six games in a row and while they were competitive at home against the Cats for three quarters in Round 10, they ultimately went down by 25 points. Forward Alex Sexton continued his impressive season with another three goals, taking his tally for 2019 to 21.
One thing that the Giants have done well this season is beat up on the bottom teams. They made the Demons look like a VFL team for three quarters on the weekend and we hate to think what they’ll do to the Suns back at Giants Stadium on Saturday. They have won four of five at home this year, and those five wins have come at an average margin of 64.5 points.
Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans (GMHBA, 4.35pm AEST)
The Cats win streak extended to six games in Round 10 as they defeated the Suns on the Gold Coast by 25 points. Mitch Duncan was dominant in the win, compiling 27 touches and three goals while star midfielder Tim Kelly had another strong game with 35 disposals. The Cats sit one game clear on top of the AFL ladder with a 9-1 record and a dominant 145.8%.
Sydney is the one team in the AFL that has had success in Geelong over the past 10 years. They have won their last three games in a row at GMHBA Stadium but come up against a different beast in the Cats this season. The Swans have won just three games in 2019 and sit in 15th place on the ladder.
The Cats should win this one down in Geelong, where they have been nearly unstoppable over the last five years. However, we do think the line of 32.5 is a little high. The Swans have lost seven of t heir 10 games but only one of those losses has come by more than 26 points. Their record in Geelong and a few key inclusions from injury last week has us thinking they will cover here.
The Lions will be bitterly disappointed with their loss on the road to the Dockers in Round 10. After leading for the majority of the game, the Lions couldn’t hold on as the Dockers kicked the only goal of the last quarter to snatch victory. Lachie Neale was uncharacteristically quiet in the loss, compiling just 26 touches, 19 of them handballs.
The Hawks travelled down to Tasmania in Round 10, where they have played so well over the ears and never looked like losing to the Power. They shot out to a four goal lead at quarter time and maintained the advantage throughout the game. Jack Gunston was dominant in the win, botting a season high six goals while Ricky Henderson had a match high 37 disposals.
The Lions start as 6.5 point favourites here, which seems about right given their performances at the Gabba so far this season. They boast impressive wins over the Eagles, Power, Swans and Crows at home this year with just one loss to the Pies. We think they earn a comfortable win on Saturday night against a Hawks team that hasn’t had to stray too far from Melbourne this season.
The Demons will play their annual home game in Darwin on Saturday night against the Crows. Although a last quarter spurt made the score line somewhat respectable, the Demons were deplorable against the Giants on the weekend and now sit in 16th place on the AFL ladder with just three wins from 10 games.
The Crows went on a four game win streak from rounds 5-8 that saw their premiership odds drop drastically, however, they have gone on to lose their last two games on the trot albeit in tough games against the Lions and Eagles. They’ll get a brief respite this weekend before a tough stretch continues with games against the Giants, Tigers, Cats and Power over the next four weeks.
Look for the Crows to bounce back here against a Melbourne side that was made to look like witches hats on the weekend. 7.5 point line in favour of the Crows looks too low.
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