Week 1 of the 2019 AFL Finals continues on Friday night with a blockbuster clash between Collingwood and Geelong. Action will kick off at approximately 7:50pm at the home of footy, the MCG!
Here, we’ve previewed the Geelong vs Collingwood game and provided our best betting tips from the major agencies in Australia. Make sure you check out our AFL Tips Page regularly to find all our other previews and tips for the first week of finals!
AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Tips
Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies
Friday, 7:50pm AEST, MCG
Both the Cats and the Magpies earned themselves a double chance in this year’s finals series, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be desperate to win on Friday night! Who will progress through to the first preliminary final?
Geelong Cats
The Cats got off to an unbelievable start to the season in 2019, winning 11 of their first 12 games leading into the bye. However, after their week off they split their 10 remaining games with five wins and five losses. Their 16 wins for the season was still good enough to finish on top of the ladder and earn themselves at least two home finals, but their form over the last couple of months is certainly questionable.
Although Geelong lost their Round 22 clash with the Lions, they lost no fans with the performance they put in. When you consider they could’ve and probably should’ve won that match, and they won both their Round 21 and 23 matches, then maybe their form is a lot better than some may think. The Cats have certainly improved their defence in their last three matches, giving up less than 50 points per game on average, which is what they’ll need to bring in the finals if they’re to go all the way.
Collingwood Magpies
The Magpies season has gone in a similar direction to that of their opponents here. They started off really well with nine wins from their first 12 games but lost four from their last 10 after their bye. The Magpies do come into this clash on a four-game winning streak, which should give them a bit of added confidence, although the opposition they beat during that run aren’t exactly top tier quality.
Collingwood are expecting to get a couple of big-name players back for their Friday night final, namely Jordan De Goey and Jaidyn Stephenson. No doubt these two will make a huge difference to the Magpies ability to score and put forward 50 pressure on, which are two areas they’ve lacked in the duo’s absence.
History
The head-to-head record between these two clubs since 1980 stands at 33 wins apiece. However, Geelong have had the ‘wood’ over Collingwood in recent times, winning each of their last three meetings.
Last five meetings:
2019 R1 – Collingwood (65) lost to Geelong (72)
2018 R8 – Collingwood (45) lost to Geelong (66)
2017 R22 – Collingwood (59) lost to Geelong (70)
2017 R6 – Geelong (78) lost to Collingwood (107)
2016 R9 – Collingwood (104) defeated Geelong (80)
Key Betting Statistics
- Each of the last eight matches between Geelong and Collingwood have gone under the total match points line.
- Geelong has lost each of its last six matches after a bye.
- Jordan De Goey has kicked three or more goals in each of Collingwood’s last three finals.
- The home team has lost seven of the last eight matches between Geelong and Collingwood.
Prediction
The Magpies haven’t been totally convincing over their current four-game winning streak, but they do get a big boost to their squad with De Goey and Stephenson returning. Interestingly, they come into this clash as the slight underdogs despite making it all the way to the Grand Final last year. On the other hand, the Cats have been poor in their recent finals appearances and have lost their last six matches coming off a bye. We lean towards Collingwood winning this in a low-scoring affair.
VALUE: Collingwood & Under 152.5 Points $3.50
