Week 1 of the 2019 AFL Finals continues and concludes on Saturday with a two-game slate. First up we’ve got the Giants hosting the Dogs, followed by the Lions hosting the Tigers. In this article, we’ll be looking at the fourth and final game of the weekend, which is a blockbuster at the Gabba!
Here, we’ve previewed the Brisbane vs Richmond fixture and provided our best betting tips from the major agencies in Australia. Make sure you check out our AFL Tips Page regularly to find all our other previews and tips for the first week of finals!
Saturday, 7:25pm AEST, Gabba
Arguably the most highly anticipated clash in week one of the finals will be the final match of the weekend. The Lions and the Tigers met just two weeks ago in Melbourne and it was the Tigers who were too good. This time, however, the Lions get the home ground advantage, which could make all the difference.
The Lions are just about everyone’s second favourite team at the moment. They’ve completely turned their form around from a season ago and now loom as a genuine premiership contender. The Lions nearly pulled off the miraculous to finish on top of the ladder, but a last round loss to the Tigers meant they had to settle for second. Nonetheless, they’re guaranteed two home finals and are in position to make a big run in September.
Brisbane are still easily one of the youngest teams in the league and are nowhere near their full potential, but some of their players are already superstars of the competition. Off-season recruit Lachie Neale has had a fabulous season and was awarded an All Australian nod, as was full-back Harris Andrews and pocket-rocket Charlie Cameron.
The Tigers have had a blistering second half of the season and are quite clearly the form team of the competition. They were plagued by injuries in the first half of the year and had to play numerous games without a stack of their key players, but their replacements managed to keep them afloat and put them in a position to make a charge towards the top four come seasons end.
Richmond have won an impressive nine straight matches since their bye in Round 14 and haven’t looked like slowing down anytime soon. Key players to their success have been Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch, and Dustin Martin, as well as defenders Bachar Houli and Dylan Grimes, who were both recently named in the All Australian team.
The Tigers have had the wood over the Lions for some time now and lead the head-to-head count 21-8 since 1997. Moreover, the Lions have only beaten the Tigers once in their last 19 meetings.
Last five meetings:
2019 R23 – Richmond (82) defeated Brisbane (55)
2018 R4 – Richmond (110) defeated Brisbane (17)
2017 R17 – Richmond (112) defeated Brisbane (81)
2017 R4 – Brisbane (67) lost to Richmond (119)
2016 R14 – Richmond (117) defeated Brisbane (75)
Key Betting Statistics
- Richmond have won 13 consecutive matches against Brisbane.
- Richmond have won 17 and drawn one in their last 19 matches against Brisbane.
- Dion Prestia has recorded 30+ disposals in five of Richmond's last six matches.
- Tom Lynch has kicked three or more goals in each of Richmond's last four away matches.
- Each of Richmond's last six interstate matches have gone OVER the total match points line.
- Lachie Neale has recorded 35+ disposals in three of his last four appearances against Richmond.
- Charlie Cameron has kicked four or more goals in each of Brisbane’s last three matches at the Gabba.
This is an extremely hard match to predict as both teams have had fantastic seasons and are in great form heading into the finals. The Tigers may have won 13 straight against the Lions and beat them just two weeks ago at the MCG, but the Lions are a much better team on their home deck and should be able to at least keep this one a bit closer. We’re expecting a nail-biting contest that goes down to the wire.
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