After losing the first 7 tips of the round, PuntingInDanger fans were able to salvage something from last weekend as we hit on the two midweek games. I’ll be hunting a big bounce back weekend here as I take a look at every game in Round 6 and give tips below.
Give me a follow on Twitter at @AFLBYB if you're interested in some nonsensical live footy commentary or continuing to read the 10-1 of my totally biased Top 50 players in the AFL over the next few days.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
See our standalone preview and tips for the Friday night clash here.
Geelong vs Sydney (Saturday 1.45pm AEST)
I’ll admit I had some strong doubts over the Cats when they succumbed to West Coast in Round 3 by 15 points. However, a decent performance against the Saints followed by a spectacular win in Port Adelaide has restored a little faith in them for me. Patrick Dangerfield continues to do what he does best, leading his team from the front and after two wins, the Cats will start as favourites at home against Sydney in Round 6.
The Swans had the opportunity to make a statement on Friday night in Round 5 with a home game against a depleted Adelaide side. Unfortunately, their midfield could dominant like it has in the past, and they went down by ten points. The Swans now sit outside the top eight with a 3-2 record and could fall even further here with a tough game in Geelong.
Geelong have a few injury concerns to worry about. Obviously, Gary Ablett is still on the sidelines with his hamstring injury, and Scott Selwood could miss this week through concussion. Lance Franklin has a bruised heel and will miss for the Swans, which is a real concern considering I would have picked him to have a field day against the undersized Geelong backline. Really tough game to call here but I think the Swans can keep it close even without Buddy. Their highest margin in a win or a loss this year has been just 26 points.
TIP: Sydney +16.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide (Saturday 2.10pm AEST)
After starting the season 3-0, Port Adelaide have lost their last two games to Essendon and Geelong respectively, and now sit outside the top eight. Last weekend’s match was a really disappointing one in particular, as it was at Adelaide Oval, which they would have been hoping to turn into a fortress this season. Robbie Gray continues to impress for the Power, but help is limited both in the midfield and forward line. Tom Rockliff and Todd Marshall’s return to the line-up could remedy that, although they are still desperately missing Paddy Ryder, who is a few weeks away.
North Melbourne have been the surprise packet of the season so far. A fantastic win against Hawthorn in Round 5 gave them a 3-2 record through the first 5 games of the season and they currently sit in fourth place on the ladder. Their midfield has been doing the job as a unit with no standout performer while Ben Brown has been a handful for opposition defenders.
I would have picked the line for this game to be close to 40 points after both teams performances in Round 1, but the resurgence of North Melbourne and the demise of Port Adelaide has the Power at just 13.5 point favourites here. They definitely aren’t fans of playing at Etihad for some reason, but they did decimate North Melbourne by 70 points in their last meeting. I’m backing a bounce back performance by the Power here.
TIP: Port Adelaide -13.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Greater Western Sydney vs Brisbane (Saturday 4.35pm AEST)
After falsely misplacing trust in the Lions to capture their first win of the season at home against the Gold Coast last weekend, all hope is lost for them in my opinion. They were competitive in the end, only going down by five points, but their elite midfielders just could step up to get the job done as Beams and Zorko had just 38 touches between them. Daniel Rich could return for the Lions this weekend, but I feel it won’t be enough against the Giants in Sydney.
The Giants played out a draw against St Kilda in Round 5 and were probably lucky to come away with 2 points as they were beaten in most areas of the game. One thing that is still prevalent with the Giants is their inability to be effective when the games turns into a bit of a scrap, which is exactly what the Saints were aiming for on the weekend.
The Giants rely on clean ball use and run and carry, and when teams threaten that by applying forward pressure and tackling ferociously, they tend to crumble. Rain is forecast for Saturday in Sydney as well as high winds which could turn the game a little bit ugly, I like Brisbane to turn this into a bit of a scrap and cover a 38.5 point line.
TIP: Brisbane +38.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Hawthorn vs St Kilda (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
Finally, the Saints showed something in 2018. After four poor performances to start the season, the Saints finally came out and did what they do best, which is tackling and applying pressure. They dominated in most areas of the game against the Giants on Saturday, but their kicking efficiency let them down in the end as they walked away with just two points.
The Hawks were thoroughly outplayed by the Kangaroos on Sunday, and after being almost 10 goals down at half time, it was only match ending injuries to three North Melbourne players that allowed them back into the game. Tom Mitchell was shut down by Ben Jacobs so it will be interesting to see if the Saints send Luke Dunstan to the Hawks star this weekend.
It was arguably the Saints best win of the season when the two teams met in Tasmania last year, as they came away with a big 75-point win. I don’t think it will be quite the same margin here but I do think the Saints are a massive chance given the display they showed on the weekend. The Saints were the number one tackling team in the competition last season and if they can continue to put lots of pressure on the Hawks midfield then it should give them a massive sniff in good conditions in Tasmania.
TIP: St Kilda +21.5 - $1.91 at Ladbrokes
Adelaide Crows vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday 7.40pm AEST)
Adelaide bounced back from a disappointing loss to Collingwood in Round 4 to beat the Swans in Sydney in a great game. The Adelaide forward line was in full flight as Tex Walker, Rory Atkins and Josh Jenkins all combined for 10 goals. The Crows could bolster their stocks this weekend with the return of midfielders Rory Slone and Matt Crouch as well.
Gold Coast captured their third win of the season on the weekend, downing Brisbane by five points to move to 12th on the ladder. Even though Brisbane had 5 of the top 6 disposal winners on the ground, the Gold Coast still came out on top, showing that they aren’t relying on any one player as they did for so long with Gary Ablett.
The Gold Coast young players have been great to start the season, but I think the Crows should be a little too much for them to handle this weekend, especially in Adelaide. Perfect conditions in Adelaide on Saturday and the return of some quality midfielders spells a blow out for the Crows.
TIP: Adelaide -47.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Essendon vs Melbourne (Sunday 1.10pm AEST)
Very disappointing results for both Essendon and Melbourne in Round 5, going down to Collingwood and Richmond respectively by similar margins. Essendon have the slight excuse of only having 2 player son the bench for the majority of the Anzac Day game, but even that can’t excuse the lack of desire they seemed to have to win the ball.
Richmond’s defence proved to be too much for the Demons to handle, and Melbounre have now scored just 14 goals in their last two games. The Jesse Hogan to the midfield move has been good for the Demons, adding some ball winning ability and grunt to their midfield, but it seems to have come at the cost of a pure target man up forward.
Really tough game to call here for me. The only thing that slightly tilts it in Essendon’s favour is the fact that it will be played under the roof at Etihad. The Bombers run and carry, and skills seem to be way better at Etihad for some reason, and at $2 I think they are value.
TIP: Essendon to win - $2 at CrownBet
Collingwood vs Richmond (Sunday 3.20pm AEST)
The Pies will be aiming for their fourth win in a row when they meet Richmond at the MCG on Sunday afternoon. They were fantastic in the Anzac Day game, dominating Essendon in every area of the field, especially the midfield, where we’ve seen them really come alive over the past three weeks.
While it’s Collingwood’s midfield that has been getting the job done for them recently, it’s been Richmond’s defence that has allowed them to win their last three. They have had just 73 points scored on them in the last two weeks, and their tackling against Melbourne on the weekend was reminiscent of their 2017 premiership run.
Even throughout their last three games, Collingwood have really struggled to find a reliable scoring option. The majority of their goals have had to come through midfielders floating forward and I just don’t think that holds up against this Richmond defence.
TIP: Richmond -11.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Fremantle vs West Coast (Sunday 4.40pm AEST)
The first Perth Derby of 2018 and the first at the brand-new Optus Stadium will be held from 4.40pm AEST this Sunday. West Coast come into the game on the back of a four-game win streak, the longest in the league. They have, however, faced the Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and Carlton in that four-game stretch, all of whom sit in the bottom 7 on the ladder.
Fremantle were impressive in their win over the Western Bulldogs in Round 5, kicking 16 goals en-route to a 54-point win. Nat Fyfe is looking extremely ominous early in the season, averaging over 30 touches a game and had another monster against the Dogs, compiling 43 touches and adding a goal.
Struggling to pick a winner here. West Coast start as $1.71 favourites but I think the derby factor and Fyfe’s form makes this a complete 50-50. Staying away from it.
TIP: No bet
