Great opening round in the AFL for PuntingInDanger and our following fans as we hit on 7 out of 8 betting tips, with all winners coming at odds of $1.90 or better! It’s a fantastic slate of games in Round 2 of the season, kicking off with a Grand Final replay on Thursday night! We take a look at every game over the weekend and give our betting tips below!
Make sure you give follow PuntingInDanger on Twitter for live game tweets and nonsensical commentary!
Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers (Thursday 7.50pm AEDT)
See our stand alone preview and tips for the Richmond vs Adelaide game here!
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs St Kilda Saints (Friday 4.20pm AEDT)
The Roos and Saints do battle on Good Friday for the second consecutive year as the Saints will look to build on a good win over Brisbane in Round 1 to improve to 2-0. St Kilda looked shaky for parts of the game against Brisbane, but ultimately proved they were the better side, kicking away in the last quarter to record a 25-point win. The midfield core of Jack Steven, Seb Ross and Blake Acres were great in the win, while Jack Billings continued to assert himself as one of the most exciting young mid-forwards in the league.
Not sure how much we can take from North Melbourne’s Round 1 game. In torrential rain on the Gold Coast, the Kangaroos fell to the Suns in a low scoring game in which no just one player accumulated over 26 disposals. It was a sloppy game on both accounts and North Melbourne’s key weapon, Ben Brown, was never able to get into the game due to the weather, something that shouldn’t be a problem under the roof on Friday night.
Make no mistake, the Roos will be much better than they were in Round 1, but it’s still the Saints who I fancy to win this game. They possess a touch more silk in the midfield, which is desperately needed on the fast Etihad track, and the form of Billings and key forward Tim Membrey looked really ominous in Round 1. The Saints arguably play the Etihad dimensions better than any team in the league and we expect them to earn a win here.
TIP: St Kilda -19.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Carlton Blues vs Gold Coast (Saturday 1.45pm AEDT)
Carlton were gallant in their loss to Richmond on opening night last Thursday. They led for the majority of the game and were competitive until the final moments of the match when Richmond were able to kick away. If there’s one thing that can’t be questioned about the Blues early this season, it’s their heart. The young stars stood up in the loss, with the Blues boasting arguably the best three players on the ground in Charlie Curnow, Patrick Cripps and Kade Simpson all dominating.
As I mentioned above, the Suns won a sloppy game up North. While we can’t take much from a game where teams regularly soccer off the ground out of contests for field position, they were able to adapt to the conditions better than North Melbourne. However, the game wouldn’t have acted as any sort of real match simulation for the Suns, so they could arguably be coming into this weekend a week behind the rest of the competition.
Carlton will relish the return to Etihad Stadium here. The perfect conditions should suit their run and carry of half back in the likes of Simpson and Caleb Marchbank. Matthew Kreuzer is a slight issue for the Blues, and with Jarrod Witts having a great game against the Roos help could be needed in the ruck. However, I think Carlton’s youngsters looked ultra-impressive in Round 1 and should have what it takes to cover the 13.5-point line here.
TIP: Carlton -13.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Collingwood Magpies vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (Saturday 4.35pm AEDT)
The Magpies will get their second game in a row at the MCG to start the season as they host GWS on Saturday afternoon. They were beaten comfortably in Round 1 by the Hawks as Tom Mitchell ran rampant on them. Some key players in Tyson Goldsack, Jordan de Goey, Mason Cox and Josh Smith will remain on the sidelines in Round 2, making it a really tough test against the Giants who looked fantastic in Round 1.
GWS dominated the Bulldogs in Canberra on Sunday afternoon. While I think that game says a little bit more about the Dogs fortunes moving forward than it does about the Giants, there’s no denying that GWS are one of the top contenders for the flag this season. Amazingly, GWS still have some real talent to add to this team in the coming weeks. Tom Scully will return for this game, adding to what was arguably already the best midfield in the league.
Kelly, Whitfield, Shiel, Ward, Coniglio, Scully and Taranto make up the core of the GWS midfield. At 27 years of age, Ward is the eldest of that group by far, which is daunting for the rest of the AFL. I strongly believe that this could become the best midfield group since the Lions triple premiership side. All of this talk doesn’t offer much insight to this week’s game against the Maggies, but I think they win comfortably.
TIP: Greater Western Sydney -20.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday 7.25pm AEDT)
Interesting matchup on Saturday night as the Lions host the Demons from The Gabba on Saturday night. Both teams suffered tough losses in Round 1, with the Demon’s particularly heartbreaking as Max Gawn had a shot with seconds remaining to win them the game but missed. The absence of Tom McDonald and Jack Viney took its toll on Sunday against the Cats as even star forward Jesse Hogan had to spend time in the midfield in the loss.
Brisbane were the better of two bad teams for three quarters in their game against the Saints on Saturday afternoon. They were extremely sloppy and while both teams turned the ball over constantly in the first three quarters, St Kilda were able to take advantage in the last quarter. The thing I think could be a turning point for the Lions this week is the form of their key midfielders at home. Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko both had average games against the Saints but regularly become different beasts at home, and they’ll need to be without Tom Rockliff this season.
40% chance of rain in Brisbane Saturday night so it could be another wet one up North. I think the Dees probably edge out the Lions but not sure if they cover the 18.5-point line. Staying away from the line here and opting for the unders on total points. St Kilda and Brisbane could only muster 189 in perfect conditions on the weekend, so the 194.5 total point line seems high considering it could rain.
TIP: Total points UNDER 194.5 - $1.90 at Sportsbet
Fremantle Dockers vs Essendon Bombers (Saturday 8.10pm AEDT)
Great win for the Bombers in Round 1 as they came from 20 points down in the final quarter to pile on five unanswered goals against the Crows and earn the win. More impressive yet for the Bombers, they did it all without star midfielder Zach Merrett, who went down with a concussion in the first half. Unsure if Merrett will be available for the Round 2 clash, but at this stage he looks likely.
Fremantle were beaten comfortably by Port Adelaide in Round 1. Lachie Neale led the way with 38 touches for the Dockers, but the next 10 top disposal getters in the match were all Power players, exposing their dominance in the middle of the ground. They’ll be pumped for the first crack at the brand-new Optus Stadium this weekend, which is the only factor which I can see helping them be competitive in this match.
Perfect weather forecast for Saturday night in Perth, which we think aids the Bombers in their fast style of play. Doubt the Bombers can blowout Fremantle to the tune of 40 points, especially in Perth but I do think they win this game away from home to go 2-0.
TIP: Essendon to win by 1-39 - $2.20 at Sportsbet
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles (Sunday 3.20pm AEDT)
The Bulldogs were deplorable in their Round 1 clash against the Giants. It was always going to be a tough task for the Dogs, especially after losing Tom Liberatore in the first quarter to an ACL injury, however, the Dogs lacked any sort of structure. They get Jack Redpath back from injury this weekend, but their forward line can only be described as dysfunctional at best. Marcus Adams and Dale Morris remain on the sidelines which could spell trouble as they come up against some monster forwards.
Luckily for the Dogs, Josh Kennedy is still out for the Eagles with an ankle injury, however, Jack Darling looked ominous in the Round 1 clash against Sydney and should have a field day against likely opponent Zaine Cordy. The ruck stocks are also a massive issue for the Dogs against West Coast. Jordan Roughead and Tim English will have a big task against Nic Naitanui, who looked fantastic in the loss to the Swans on the weekend.
I’m really low on the Dogs this year. The list that they will likely roll out on Sunday afternoon is a shell of the one that won a premiership a few years ago, and the size of West Coast in particular will really trouble them. Not sure how the bookies justify them as $1.60 favourites here but we are happy to take them on.
TIP: West Coast to win - $2.35 at Sportsbet
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power (Sunday 4.40pm AEDT)
It was the Lance Franklin show in Round 1 for the Swans as the big forward booted 8 goals in Sydney’s win over West Coast in Perth. Sydney will be buoyed by the return of some key players in the next few weeks as Dan Hannebery will be right to play Round 2 followed by Sam Reid, Aliir and Gary Rohan to come.
Port Adelaide were also fantastic in Round 1, punishing the Dockers by 50 points as 10 players racked up 22+ disposals for the Power. Young forward Todd Marshal booted four goals for the Power, adding to what is already a dynamic forward line with Jack Watts, Charlie Dixon, Chad Wingard and Robbie Gray.
Paddy Ryder went down with an Achilles injury in Round 1 and is set to miss up to six weeks which is a massive blow for the Power. I think both of these teams will finish in the top three this season which makes this an incredibly hard match to predict. Have to give the Swans the slight advantage from home but I’m not going anywhere near this one.
TIP: No bet
Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks (Monday 3.20pm AEDT)
The Cats and Hawks will ignite their rivalry once more on Easter Monday at the MCG. It will be the first time that fans have seen the trio of Gary Ablett, Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood in action together, as Dangerfield is set to return from injury. The Cats claimed a thrilling win over Melbourne in Round 1 as both Ablett and Selwood racked up 39 touches in the win while Daniel Menzel booted four goals.
The Hawks also earned a good win, defeating Collingwood by 34 points as Tom Mitchell broke the record for most disposals in a game with a ridiculous 54. It’s a great start for our pre-season futures tip, where we took Mitchell to rack up the most disposals in the home and away season at odds of $3.50.
Another tough game to call here. Games between these two teams are always close regardless of current form or any other factor. Three of the last four matchups between the two clubs have combined for just a 9-point margin while the other was a monster 66-point win for the Cats in Round 4 last season. Not super confident, but I like the Cats to edge out a close one here.
TIP: Geelong to win by 1-39 - $2.25 at Ladbrokes
