Tough weekend for PuntingInDanger and fans last week as we hit on just one bet for the round. The good news is that we have regularly been able to bounce back from bad weeks so far this year, and we’ll look to do the same in Round 12 as we preview every game over the weekend below!
Carlton, Hawthorn, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs have the bye this weekend so there’s just seven games to preview including the massive Queens Birthday clash at the MCG on Monday!
Port Adelaide vs Richmond (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
See our full preview and tips for the Friday night clash here!
Geelong vs North Melbourne (Saturday 1.45pm AEST)
Geelong will welcome the return to GMHBA Stadium this weekend after the trip to the Gold Coast where they were dominant 85 point winners. Gary Ablett looked back to his best, racking up 37 touches and kicking 3 goals in the win but the competition in the Gold Coast looked extremely sub par.
They’ll have a bigger test this weekend as they face the red hot North Melbourne, who were 54 point winners over Brisbane in Round 11. Jarrad Waite was a very late out for the Kangaroos, but should return for this clash. Promising sign for North Melbourne was the fact that big Ben Brown had a relatively quiet game and the Roos were still able to hit the scoreboard with ease against the Lions.
Tough game to call here. Geelong start as favourites and its always so hard to bet against them down at GMHBA Stadium. The Roos have barely put a foot wrong all year so you almost have to feel bad going against them here but the Cats will be tough in Geelong.
Geelong to win by 1-39
$2.10
Greater Western Sydney vs Gold Coast (Saturday 4.35pm AEST)
The two expansion teams do battle on Saturday afternoon as the Giants host the Suns from Spotless Stadium. After a horror run of four losses in a row, the Giants went to Adelaide Oval and made a statement on the weekend, downing the Crows by 16 points in one of the games of the year. It was a mis of youth and experience that got the job done for the Giants as Ed Langdon, Ryan Griffen and Jeremy Cameron all booted three goals in the win.
As we mentioned above, the Suns were beaten convincingly by the Cats on the weekend and don’t have much to look forward to here against the Giants at Spotless. They start as 44.5 point underdogs here and come into the game with a host of injuries including Aaron Young, Matt Rosa, Steven May, Aaron Hall, Pearce Hanley, Kade Kolodjashnij and Brayden Fiorini.
Last week could have marked a turning point for the Giants, and they should get better this week as Matt de Boer should return from a hamstring injury. However, rain and wind around in Sydney on Saturday afternoon has me thinking this one we’ll stay within 30.
St Kilda vs Sydney (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
St Kilda will return to Etihad Stadium after two weeks away from home this weekend. It’s been a tough road for the Saints in 2018, who got their only win of the year all the way back in Round 1 against the Lions and are currently on a six game losing streak. They have, however, been extremely gallant in their last two games against the top two teams in the league in Richmond and West Coast.
Sydney have been going about their business quietly, and racked up yet another win on the weekend as they downed the Blues by 30 points. The win makes it four in a row for the Swans, who should get better this weekend with Tom Papley set to return to the line-up.
Jake Carlisle will return from suspension for the Saints, which will be massive as they come up against Lance Franklin, however, the Saints line-up is decimated at the moment. Blake Acres, Nathan Brown, Jarryn Geary, Sam Gilbert, Dylan Roberton and Koby Stevens will all be out of the line-up and I think the Swans win this one easily.
Sydney Swans handicap (-29.5)
$1.92
Brisbane vs Essendon (Sunday 1.10pm AEST)
It was one of the games of the year in 2017 when Brisbane came from 27 points down early in the final quarter to beat the Bombers at Etihad Stadium. After turning their season around with wins over Geelong and GWS, the Bombers went down to the Tigers in the DreamTime at the G game on the weekend. A shoulder injury to midfielder David Zaharakis will be a massive blow for the Bombers with the senior player set to miss 6-8 weeks. Joe Daniher, Darcy Parish and Patrick Ambrose remain on the sidelines also.
Hard to fault the Lions too much this year. They are in the midst of a massive rebuild and field one of the youngest teams in the league week in week out. However, the responsibility in the midfield is left to too few, as Dayne Beams was the only Brisbane player to surpass 30 disposals against the Roos on the weekend. Beams was fantastic, kicking five goals to go along with his 32 touches, and himself along with Dayne Zorko will need to be massive if the Lions have any shot against the Bombers on the weekend.
The Lions captured a season defining win over the Hawks at the Gabba just a few weeks ago and although the Bombers won those two games in a row against good opposition, I’m still no where near sold on them, especially with Zaharakis exiting the line-up this weekend.
Brisbane Lions to win
$2.20
Fremantle vs Adelaide (Sunday 4.40pm AEST)
The Dockers went down to the Magpies on the weekend and have now lost their last three games in a row. They currently sit in 13th place on the ladder and in a massive blow, will be without skipper Nat Fyfe for this weekend’s game against the Crows. The star midfielder and Brownlow favourite was suspended for one game for striking, meaning he is ineligible for the medal.
With another loss on the weekend, Adelaide have now slipped out of the top eight and will be desperate to get back on the winners list in Perth this weekend. Brad Crouch’s groin injury was originally only supposed to see him miss the first 4-5 weeks of the season, however, news in the past few days has stated that he’ll be out for the remainder of the season, while Taylor Walker, Rory Sloane and Mitch McGovern are all also on the Crows sidelines.
Really tough for me to pick a winner here. Adelaide start as $1.30 favourites which I think is a bit low considering they are away from home and their form has been poor over the last two weeks. However, not much can be said about the Dockers form either. I’m staying away from this one.
TIP: No bet
Melbourne vs Collingwood (Monday 3.20pm AEST)
The game of the round this weekend sees the annual Queens Birthday clash between Melbourne and Collingwood take place at the MCG. The Demons are arguably the hottest team in the comp at the moment. They have won their last six games in a row and have been absolutely trouncing teams. The six wins have come at an average of over 65 points and they have scored over 100 points in all six.
The Magpies were impressive against Fremantle on the weekend, claiming a 61-point win to solidify a spot inside the top eight. Brodie Grundy had his way with second year ruckman Michael Apeness on the weekend, racking up 48 hit-outs and 18 touches but should have his work cut out for him this weekend against big Max Gawn.
Should be a great game in front of a packed MCG crowd on Monday with (arguably) the two best ruckman in the league going head to head. Can’t bet against Melbourne at the moment and the fact it’s such a big game just means we get better odds for them.
Melbourne Demons handicap (-10.5)
$1.92
