Wow, what a tough round in AFL betting so far. We have had some close calls but unfortunately, we are yet to hit on a tip through the opening games. However, there are still two games to go in Round 5 and we give our preview and betting tips for both of the big matches at the MCG below.
Melbourne vs Richmond (Tuesday 7.25pm AEST)
Richmond will be coming into this Tuesday night clash on the back of a fantastic win over Brisbane in Round 4. They allowed just 17 points in the win, and their defence seemed back to it’s dominant form of the finals last year. Dustin Martin played forward for the majority of the game, kicking six goals and looking unstoppable while the midfield worked in unison to move the Tigers to 3-1 on the season.
Melbourne will be bitterly disappointed with their effort in Round 4, as they were beaten comfortably by Hawthorn at the MCG. As they have been throughout the season so far, Clayton Oliver and Jesse Hogan were the standouts for the Demons, as Hogan continues to relish his new role in the midfield.
Bit of a blow for the Demons will be the loss of Jordan Lewis, who suffered a hand injury in the loss to the Hawks, while Richmond boast arguably the healthiest list in the competition, with Daniel Rioli their only unavailable player through injury.
Richmond start as 12.5-point favourites here which I think is a little low given their form over the last two weeks. They were super impressive against the Hawks in Round 3, the same team that decimated Melbourne last weekend. I think the Richmond defence holds up here and at full strength they should cover the line.
TIP: Richmond -12.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Collingwood vs Essendon (Wednesday 3.20pm AEST)
The big Anzac Day clash is set to be another thrilling one as both the Bombers and the Magpies come into the game on the back of wins last weekend. The Pies made a massive statement in the Round 4 opener, downing Adelaide by 48 points in South Australia. Rookie Jaidyn Stephenson was fantastic in the win, kicking five goals while their midfield seemed to get back on track with Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar, Tom Phillips and Scott Pendlebury all collecting over 30 disposals.
The Bombers were also fantastic last weekend, downing the Power on Sunday afternoon by 22 points. Their midfield also came to the party, as Zach Merrett finally performed in 2018 with 29 touches and 8 tackles. The Dons move to 2-2 after the win but still have some issues with key forwards Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker lacking form.
Collingwood still have their fair share of injury problems, with Taylor Adam, Jamie Elliot and Darcy Moore all set to miss this week’s big clash. Essendon have a few injuries at the moment, but nothing that really troubles their best 22, so should go into Wednesday’s game fairly healthy.
The big factor of the game for me is the form of Brodie Grundy. The Collingwood ruckman has dominated in the two Magpies wins, racking up 33 disposals and 40 hitouts in the win over the Crows. If he can get on top of big Tom Bellchambers early this Wednesday he should give the Pies midfield plenty of opportunity and they on their day they are one of the best in the comp. I like the Pies to win in a tight game here.
TIP: Collingwood to win - $1.80 at Sportsbet