Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington on Tuesday, November 7th.
We have a monster 10-race card here, with ‘The Race That Stops A Nation’ accompanied by several very competitive Group races.
The track will start in the Good range, and it will be important to keep an eye on early races to see how the track plays given the rail remains in the True position. The track raced very fairly on Derby Day, so hopefully it remains that way with the rail unchanged.
Check out Episode 8 of the BeforeYouBet Podcast where TimsTips breaks down the Melbourne Cup at length and talks about the day's racing at Flemington in the player below!
We have betting tips and comments for every race below on the Christmas Day of the punting calendar!
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 1 Qafila
Best Value: Race 4 Zilbiyr
Race 1
This is a tricky way to start the day with 10 of the 12 runners remaining having their first race start. With that said, I was particularly keen on two horses here, and now one of them is scratched, which leaves me very keen to have a good crack at QAFILA. She saluted for us on debut at Caulfield where she sizzled home late, and not only did the stable say she was probably their best two-year-old, but they’ve also said she’s one of their best chances over the whole carnival. She trialled well down the Flemington straight leading into her debut, so she’s at least had some experience in that regard, and I love the booking of Kerrin McEvoy to replace Damien Oliver. There’s obviously a lot of unknowns in this race, but I’m happy to have a good go at this filly who is now $3.20 after the scratching of Tony McEvoy’s Lake District Girl. Other runners of interest include HAVANA HEAT for the eye-catching combination of Smerdon and Williams, while the same can be said for YULONG MONOCEROS for Purcell and Nolen. ROCK THE WORLD could be a smokey at a big price after a nice trial behind a filly called Trilli, who Jason Warren labelled the best juvenile he’s ever trained. $26 looks a nice price. Wouldn’t discount either of the Tony McEvoy runners either.
TIP: Qafila (Best Bet) / Rock The World EW
Race 2
Another good, competitive race, and one I’m looking for value in. I’ll be backing INVINCIBELLA, but at the prices I’ll likely only back her as a saver for my other bets. She resumed with two good wins in Sydney, before running a good enough race behind Lubiton last start on a heavily leader-biased track at Moonee Valley. Her pre-race market drift told the story. Back on a bigger track she can bounce back, but $2.80 is short enough for me. I think two at each way prices to back are SPANNER HEAD and STORMSABREWING. Spannerhead has a good record at this track, including a 2nd placing to dual Group 1 winner Egg Tart last prep. Resumed this prep with a good win over 1400m at the track before just a fair run last start. Back to Flemington here suits, just needs a good ride and some luck from barrier 16, but is a good price at $19. Stormsabrewing has won over 1600m at the track and comes into this with two runs under her belt. She generally needs a few runs to come good. If you look at her record when third up and beyond, she’s had seven starts for two wins and three placings. She’s from a stable I really like and draws to get a good run. Include at $15. TAHANEE is ready to win and gets to Flemington for the first time. We’ve seen how Weir can set these horses for their grand finals and it’d be no shock to see her improve a few lengths here. Draws well and Williams sticks. MILES OF KRISHAN has been well supported early and should be ready to do something now at her third run back from a spell. Backing the two at big odds and having a saver on Invincibella.
TIP: Invincibella / Spannerhead EW / Stormsabrewing EW
Race 3
This is one of the tougher races of the day, but I think there could be a moral here in NEW UNIVERSE. I said the same thing about him on Saturday in a race in Sydney, but he was scratched in preference for this. BUT, he needs to behave himself pre-race, so hold your bets until then. First up he misbehaved in the parade, and then they tried to adjust the saddle behind the barriers and he went crazy. His effort to run home from an impossible position in running was a seriously good effort. He now steps up to 1400m second up, draws well for Kerrin McEvoy, and he could just blow them away. Really like the price we’re getting, so long as he parades nicely. Outside of him, there’s a number of genuine chances. DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR has put together consecutive wins in Adelaide and is undefeated at the distance. Gets a good run from barrier 1. LAND OF PLENTY drops back from harder races and only three starts ago ran 3rd behind Redkirk Warrior and Scales of Justice. DIVINE QUALITY and MILWAUKEE are both progressive horses on the rise and come through the same race last start, while OZI CHOICE will go to the front and be hard to chase down. The Weir factor comes into play with him as well. He’s a winner at the track and distance and goes from Ben Allen and John Allen to Craig Williams. Happy to back each way.
TIP: New Universe / Ozi Choice EW
Race 4
Not a great race this but there’s three in particular I like. Lloyd Williams pretty well declared GRANDDUKEOFTUSCANY on radio this morning, saying he will win. We have to take that with a pinch of salt of course, but his form behind Amelie’s Star last start does look particular good, and the stable only care about winning races at this exact time, so every other race may as well be irrelevant. He draws well in barrier 1, should go forward and run a big race. His stablemate SHERLOCK HOLMES won at the Valley last start in a weaker sort of race. He looks a real grinder, and he’s won a race over this distance before which is a big plus. He carried 60.5kg last start and drops 6.5kg here, so he gets a 4kg weight swing on the horse that ran 2nd. That horse was ZILBIYR, who is absolutely flying and looks well over the odds once again at $26. He came from a long way back when 2nd to Sherlock Holmes, looping the field while the winner sat outside the leader. The horse is in terrific form, with the only query being the firm track at Flemington. Nevertheless, the odds are definitely worth having a nibble at once again. He’s been a money maker for us in recent starts and Flemington should suit him. UBIN THUNDERSTRUCK was a good thing beaten when 3rd to Zilbiyr last start, but my query is that Craig Williams jumps off the horse in order to ride the stablemate (who is now scratched). Five starts of zero placings on firm ground is a query. SIN TO WIN has won two straight and is on trial for next year’s Cups so expect him to grind away and go close once more.
TIP: Granddukeoftuscany / Zilbiyr EW (Best Value)
Race 5
Nice sprint race this for the three-year-olds. PROPERTY is the class horse in the race and if he produces his best form he will win this. He was taken out of the Coolmoore on Saturday in order to race here as it’s a bit easier. I have my doubts over him though. I would’ve liked to have seen him go a bit better first up and he’s up against it here carrying 59.5kg, meaning he gives every other horse at least 2kg. I really liked the look of both PARET and NATURE STRIP, but with the latter now scratched, I'm comfortably in the corner of PARET. He is a very talented horse from the Waller stable with a fair spruik on him. He won nicely on debut before running 3rd to Beau Geste last start, when he raced very greenly in the straight. Beau Geste has franked that form with a big run in the Carbine CLub Stakes on Saturday. Freshened up and back in trip to 1000m here, I expect him to give this a real shake and happy to take the $4.80 about him with Nature Strip out of the race. I’ll also be having something each way on WILLIAM THOMAS at $15. I wanted to back this horse in a Flemington race a little while ago but he was scratched and taken to Ararat for an easy kill. The horse he beat then came out and won at Moonee Valley, so the form is reasonable. Has won a trial easily leading into this and looks well over the odds. He’s by far the best value in the race. BANDIPUR another to include.
TIP: Paret / William Thomas EW
Race 6
Intriguing race. OUR CROWN MISTRESS could be a complete moral here but there’s enough that I can find to play her as a saver bet and back some at better odds. She’s won three races in a row now, and her last effort was particularly strong after working early. From barrier 1 she’ll get a charmed run and the Waterhouse stable are absolutely flying in Melbourne. However, COUNTERPLAY missed the start badly when only beaten a length by Our Crown Mistress last start, and if she jumps cleanly today, she can turn the tables. She should also get a great run from barrier 5, and it was only two starts ago that she ran 2nd to Invincible Star, who went very close to winning the Coolmoore on Saturday. Prepared to give her one more chance. The other horse I’ll be on is BAROOJ, who had an avalanche of money for her first up at Warwick Farm when only 3rd. She was then brought to Melbourne and given an easy kill in a Seymour maiden, and while this is a huge step up in grade, the Snowden’s know what they’re doing. Barrier 13 is tricky, but Mark Zahra is in outstanding form and will have it sorted. TARCOOLA SPIRIT looks one to include at double figures, while the win of TORVILL last start was impressive. Backing Counterplay at $6.50, and Barooj at $7, with a saver on Our Crown Mistress.
TIP: Counterplay / Barooj EW
Race 7 – Emirates Melbourne Cup
SEE OUR FULL RUNNER-BY-RUNNER PREVIEW OF THE MELBOURNE CUP HERE!
Race 8
Keen on four horses here. ODEON goes on top after bouncing back to form over 1700m at Caulfield. The horse that ran 2nd has since won again and rom barrier 4 he’ll just get an excellent run in the race. Happy to take the $6 on offer. MAURUS was arguably a good thing beat last start behind Kiwia and Samovare. Kiwia went on to run 2nd in the Bendigo Cup, and Samovare has since run well again. From barrier 13, Maurus won’t get as good a run today as he did in the small field last start, but he looks to be going well and we can get him at $12. PURE PRIDE bolted in two starts ago over 1400m at this track, before a completely luckless run in the Seymour Cup behind BALF’S CHOICE last start. She knuckled at the start and then was held up from the 500m-150m, drifting back to last before eventually getting clear to run 5th. The last horse is NOZOMI, who was a touch unlucky in the Cranbourne Cup last start but probably peaked on his run late. Drops back to 1800m which is much more suitable, and prior the last start he put in two really nice runs over a similar distance at this track. He’s won two from three at this distance and gets the booking of Zac Purton to ride. He’s a value chance at $16. We can obviously back all four for a good result. LIFE LESS ORDINARY is the one I’m most wary of for Waller and Bowman – he started favourite in a Group 1 last start.
TIP: Odeon / Pure Pride EW / Nozomi EW
Race 9
One of the tougher races on the card. I backed CALANDA last start and that was in the middle of the ‘avoid Hugh Bowman at all costs’ period of time when he was taking no risks so to avoid suspension for the Cox Plate. The horse jumped in front, was snagged back to last and given absolutely no hope. It could have also been a nice barrier trial to have him tuned up for this race. If memory serves me correctly, he’s entered for the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes in Perth, so he’d want to be going close here. Can sit much closer in midfield from barrier 3 here and McEvoy takes the ride. Keen to butter up again at $6.50! SO YOU TOO comes out of a hot form race behind Rich Charm last start and gets the blinkers applied for the first time here. Zac Purton takes the ride. PRINCESS OF QUEENS also comes out of a hot form race behind Cool Passion and Pedrena, who are two very nice mares. I like the fact she’s been kept at 1200m here, with the only query being the Flemington straight. I’ve got SEBRING SUN as the complete blowout here at $19. This looks to be his target race third up from a spell, which generally brings upon significant improvement. He comes out of the got form race behind Rich Charm and he’s worth including at the odds. At this stage I’ll be against FAATINAH and I THOUGH SO.
TIP: Calanda / Princess Of Queens EW/ Sebring Sun EW
Race 10
Outside of the Melbourne Cup, this is the race of the day! I count a minimum of seven winning chances here. FUHRYK goes on top after bouncing back to her best with a dominant win last start over 1100m. The query is obviously the quick step up to 1400m, but on her best form she is one of the best sprinting mares in the country, so I’m siding with her class here. From the draw she’ll get a very nice run and provided she sees out the trip, she looks very hard to beat. I couldn’t not back her at $5.50. Outside of her I found it very difficult to separate a handful of horses. PEDRENA goes in at $8 after an eye-catching first up run behind COOL PASSION, who she meets 2.5kg better off at the weights here. She was also unlucky in that race and the form has stood up enormously, with COOL PASSION going on to split Global Glamour and subsequent Group 1 winner Shillelagh. PEDRENA is undefeated at the distance and therefore should be even better suited up to 1400m here. SWAMPLAN is one of the unluckiest horses in the country and was a touch unlucky in the race won by Global Glamour mentioned above. With more luck I think she would have been right in the finish, so she appeals as a good each way chance today at $12. COOL PASSION, QUILATE and WHITE MOSS are all absolutely flying and can win. JALAN JALAN the blowout.
TIP: Fuhryk / Pedrena EW / Swampland EW
QUADDIE
2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 21
4, 10, 12, 13, 19
6, 12, 13, 16
1, 3, 4, 5, 11, 13
$100 = 12%
_ _ _
The team at TopBetta have announced of their brand new GOAT Tote product, offering punters guaranteed better odds than provided on the regular totes. Don't be satisfied with poor odds! Check out the GOAT Tote which will give you the biggest bang for your buck when punting on the races this weekend!
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
