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2017 AFL: Round 12 Preview & Betting Tips

June 6th 2017, 5:21pm, By: Drop Punta

The byes continue into Round 12 of the 2017 AFL season and once again the action kicks off on Thursday night. Those who have been following my AFL betting tips will be happy with the last couple of weeks as I have gone +10.315 units. Hopefully I can add to that tally with my 2017 AFL Round 12 preview and betting tips.

2017 AFL Round 12 Betting Tips

Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs (Thursday, June 8th at 7:20pm AEST)

We are treated with a Grand Final rematch for the second time this season as Round 12 kicks off with the Western Bulldogs heading to the SCG to take on the Swans.

When these two teams met in Round 2 at Etihad it was the Dogs who scored a win by 23 points. The Swans were relatively competitive in a tough game, but at that point we didn't know just how poor the Swans would be over the next several weeks. There have been some positive signs - such as their win to the Saints in Round 9 - but then there was their loss to the struggling Hawks in Round 10. Lance Franklin has been playing some solid football, while JP Kennedy, Hannebery and co have improved on their horrible start, but ultimately they still aren’t at their best. The Dogs haven't been at their consistent best either, but played much better football the week before the bye in a 40-point win over the Saints. The Dogs have won the last four against the Swans, including two at the SCG, so I don't think the ground is going to bother them. The Swans have been so poor that they have actually lost four of their five games at the SCG this season. You have to think Sydney come out desperate to prove a point against what is swiftly becoming a rival team, but it's tough to say they deserve to be favourites here. Value is with the Dogs. While I think the Swans will be competitive and this should be a cracking game with two rested teams coming back from the bye, I will be playing it safe and spreading my bet between the head-to-head and margin markets.

Tip: Western Bulldogs to win Hd-Hd - $2.10 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
+ Bulldogs by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.65 at CrownBet (1 unit)   

 

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints (Friday, June 9th at 7:20pm ACST)

The Saints come into Round 12 well-rested off the bye and are ready to take on Adelaide on the back of a tough slog in Geelong last week.  

After looking indestructible to start the season, the Crows have lost three of the last five - the Cats, Demons and Kangaroos all showed the competition that with the right game plan, Adelaide are vulnerable. The Saints will no doubt be studying those losses, but ultimately they need to first address their own form issues. The bye looked much-needed after their poor effort to the Dogs in Round 10 with that game showing that the Saints can be victims of playing one-dimensional footy. They average just 59 points over their last two efforts, so will need to find ways to score against an Adelaide side who average 118 points per game. Nick Riewoldt's presence will be needed, so watch closely to see if he has recovered from suspected knee bruising. They might come back fresh from the bye, but on current form, I can't see the Saints winning this. They also have a horrible record against Adelaide, losing the last six including three of the past four by 70+ points. The line is almost 40 points, but the Saints clearly don't have their forward mix right and will have their hands full against the high-scoring Crows. Not a massive play, but happy to get on the Crows to cover here.

Tip: Adelaide at the line (-36.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (1 unit) 

 

Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, June 10th at 1:45pm AEST)

The Gold Coast Suns head down to the MCG on Saturday to take on the struggling Hawks in one of the more interesting betting games of the week.

The last time these two sides met was in Round 3 of this year with the Suns belting Hawthorn by 86 points. The Hawks had lost the two games prior, but that embarrassing defeat was the the proper realisation that we were dealing with a completely different Hawthorn. That was also when the AFL media started going for Alistair Clarkson's throat. Since then, the Hawks have showed glimpses of solid footy, but have ultimately won just four games and come into Round 12 on the back of kicking just two behinds in the first half against Port Adelaide last week. The Suns, meanwhile, managed a solid victory against the Eagles last week, scoring their own 4th win of the season and building back some confidence after their horrible trip to China. Despite all this, the Hawks are favourites against the Suns. Yes, Gold Coast do have a horrible record at the MCG, but on current form, you have to give the Suns a chance to win this week. Their midfield looked strong last week and they certainly have more pace than the Hawks. Throw in Tom Lynch up forward going against a struggling Hawthorn backline and the fact the Hawks average just 78 points a game and I think the Suns are great value here.

Tip: Gold Coast to win hd-hd - $2.30 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)

 

Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, June 10th at 4:35pm AEST)

The Dockers look to get their season back on track as they make the long trip to Brisbane to take on the Lions on Saturday afternoon.

Everyone always says a week is a long time in footy, but two weeks is even longer. That's how long it has taken for the AFL media to decide the Dockers are no longer finals contenders and are instead perhaps pretenders. They do still sit in 8th place and will likely stay there if they defeat the Lions in Round 12, but their performance against Adelaide and the Pies suggests they probably over-performed to start the season. The Dockers deserve to be favourites and should defeat the Lions, but I don't think this will be a blow out. It's a tough road trip and the Lions will be well-rested, while also getting Tom Rockliff back in the side. I think their midfield is also a little classier than the Dockers, which is how they will be relatively competitive. Keeping this within a few goals will be a positive for the Lions, while there will be no excuses for the Dockers if they don't win here. Fairly happy to get on the margin considering the Dockers average just 77 points a game, so I can't see them even scoring enough to blow this completely out.

Tip: Fremantle by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (2 units) 

 

Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, June 10th at 7:25pm AEST)

Port Adelaide haven't won two in a row since Round 6, so will no doubt be keen to build on their great win against the Hawks last week and make it two in a row against the Bombers on Saturday night.

Essendon were solid against the Giants last week, but another loss means they are now 5-6 and currently sitting in 12th position - albeit equal in premiership points with Melbourne in 9th. The Power, meanwhile, are in 5th position with a massive percentage and will have one eye on the top four which they will burst into with a win this week. The Power actually have a really interesting match-up against the Bombers. Port Adelaide concede just 72 points a game and are taking on a Bomber side who are ranked 16th for inside 50s. However, the Bombers are clearly very efficient in capitalising on their efforts, still averaging 92 points a game - plenty of which can be attributed to Joe Daniher who continues to be a dominant forward. He will need to have a big game if the Bombers are to score enough against Port Adelaide who average 108 points per game and who have their own weapon in Charlie Dixon who is in career best form. Port Adelaide won't be worried about playing at Etihad and I think they can cover the 15-point line with relative ease.

Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-15.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (2 units)

 

Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants (Sunday, June 11th at 3:20pm AEST)

The Blues return from the bye with the tough task of taking on the top-of-the-ladder Giants on Sunday afternoon.

Despite their injury woes, the Giants continue to prove just how deep their list is by getting the job done week in and week out. They have won four in a row coming into Round 12 and will likely make it five in a row to lock up their place at the point end of the ladder. The Blues have been relatively competitive in their last few games, but struggle to put four quarters together. They will have a very tough task against the Giants this week and the bookies certainly know that, setting the line at 33 points. I do think that line a little too high considering the Giants continue to 'just do enough' to get a solid win. They haven't been putting teams away and with a reduced list to choose from because of their injury problems, they are clearly a little tired. Likewise, the best aspect of Carlton's game has been their defensive efforts. The Giants win this, but I will be having a small play on the margin.

Tip: GWS Giants by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.30 at Sportsbet (1 unit)

 

Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies (Monday, June 12th at 3:20pm AEST)

This Monday will see the Demons and Magpies take centre stage in a massive Queen's Birthday clash that also plays host to the fantastic Freeze MND cause.

The Demons are favourites going into this one, but the Magpies have done enough the last few weeks with three consecutive wins to suggest they can be very competitive. They did only defeat the Hawks, Lions and Dockers and no doubt the Demons will be tougher opponents, but Melbourne have shown us they are vulnerable with some horrible losses to the Roos and Hawks in recent weeks. One key reason the Demons are favourites is that the Magpies will be without Jamie Elliot who has been a revelation for Collingwood's forward line since returning. Without him in the side, the burden goes heavily back on Darcy Moore's shoulders as he won't be able to relish in the lightened load that has seen him play with a bit more freedom. Collingwood will also be without Daniel Wells and Tyson Goldsack - both big losses in their own right. The class of Collingwood's midfield and their current form means they can keep this close enough, but I can't see them winning.

Tip: Melbourne by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (2 units)

 

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