2016 Canterbury Stakes Day Preview & Betting Tips

March 4th 2016, 12:18pm, By: tim_tips

The Autumn racing carnival starts to heat up at Randwick on Saturday ahead of The Championships next month. The nine-race card features dual Group 1's to headline the card, with three Group 2's, two Group 3's and two Listed races in support.

With fine weather and warm temperatures forecast for both Friday and Saturday we should be racing on a Good track with the rail in the True position.

We've got horse racing tips for every race on the card along with full runner-by-runner previews of the Canterbury Stakes and the Randwick Guineas.

Race 1 - Honesty Prevails (best bet)
Race 2 - Capitalist
Race 3 - Libran
Race 4 - Mary Lou E/W
Race 6 - Serene Majesty E/W
Race 8 - Ball Of Muscle
Race 9 - I Am Zelady

Canterbury Stakes 1300m

CRITERION: Resumes after returning from his run in the Hong Kong Cup back in December. We saw win a Group 1 first up last prep after returning from the UK and he should have residual fitness but the 1300m might be a bit short for him here. Still expect him to run well.

KERMADEC: Good to see him back for the first time since the Cox Plate. Generally improves after a run and as he gets up to a mile so the 1300m will be too short for him too, but look for him running on late. Big watch ahead of The Championships.

OUR BOY MALACHI: If he is ever going to win a Group 1 this will be it given the small field he faces. Returned a really impressive winner in the Expressway. Will lead them up and the last 100m will be the acid test. 

ECUADOR: First up and comes into this after winning a trial. Never finished outside the top 2 first up, and he ran 2nd to Winx in the Epsom last year. He could give a good sight at odds.

HAPPY CLAPPER: Really impressive last prep where he won 3 from 3. He's on his way to the Villiers and the Doncaster over 1600m but he should still be competitive over 1300m. Big step up though.

FIRST SEAL: Tremendous win first up from a very long spell to win the Millie Fox against the girls over 1300m. She was better than Winx a while ago and while Winx has gone to another level, the form is still very strong.She can win this.

HOLLER: Most interesting runner in the race. He won ultra impressively first up at Moonee Valley and Godolphin had high hopes for him this prep but he was very disappointing last start. Returns to Sydney, drops back to 1300m, blinkers on first time. Could run a big race!

Summary

Small field but a very tricky race to work out. Happy to risk Criterion and Kermadec as I think the 1300m will be too short for them, while Happy Clapper is also looking for the mile and this is another step up in grade. Ecuador could run a big race as the outsider but I don't see him as a winning chance.

That leaves us with Our Boy Malachi, First Seal and Holler, and I think it could be the Rockhampton Rocket that wins his maiden Group 1. He was very impressive first up and he will have the speed, it's just whether he can hang on in the last 100m. Solicit has already come out and franked his form.

First Seal may just find Our Boy Malachi too speedy but it wouldn't surprise me to see her win after her fantastic return last start. Holler is the big query in the race and with the blinkers on first time he could very well win.

1st OUR BOY MALACHI
2nd FIRST SEAL
3rd HOLLER
4th CRITERION 

 

Girvan Waugh Randwick Guineas 1600m

PRESS STATEMENT: We thought he would win first up and he absolutely smashed them. He was tuned up for that race but he will still improve coming into this. He draws wide but he can go forward or back, it won't matter. Really should win here.

ETYMOLOGY: Well back when resuming in the Hobartville. Needs to improve and probably looking for longer now.

DAL CIELO: Expected a bit more from him in the Hobartville but he will have taken improvement from that.He could be one at big odds to run a place.

SHARDS: Another one that was disappointing in the Hobartville. He maps to get a good run here from barrier 2 and McDonald chooses to ride him so he should go better than last start.

LE ROMAIN: Took a big step up last start when continuing his great form to finish 2nd to Press Statement. He won't turn the tables on the winner but there's no reason why he can't run a place again here at his first go at the mile.

MAN OF CHOICE: Pretty average first up behind Religify. Drops back to his own age group and draws to get a good run from the inside gate. Not for me though. 

MONTAIGNE: Similar to Le Romain in that he took a huge step up in grade last start and ran out of his skin. Steps back up to the mile where he won very impressively two starts back. Great run from barrier 3 and looks a very good place chance once again.

TULSA: Huge run at Flemington last start in the CS Hayes. Looks ready to peak 3rd up and up to the mile here. Much better drawn today but he will get back as is his racing style. He should be running home strongly.

GOLD AMBITION: Big step up to what he faced last start. Has run 3rd before in a Group 3 over the mile but this is much harder.

BALMAIN BOY: Well beaten first up in a Benchmark 85 and then well beaten again last start in the Hobartville. Needs to improve.

MACKINTOSH: Interesting runner. He's won 2 from 3 over in New Zealand and makes his Australian debut here. Hard to line up the form as he's only won a maiden and a 3YO Plate over there. Not the worst but wouldn't see him as a winning chance.

DATA POINT: Has made a promising start to his career with three top 2 finishes from three starts so far. However, his past two starts have been in Benchmark 64 grade in midweek races in Melbourne so looks to be aiming a bit high here. The mile should suit though.

STAY WITH ME: Now this is the most interesting runner in the race. Won the Thousand Guineas back in the Spring, and quite dominantly too, and has been gradually improving this time round in Sydney. Step up to the mile looks ideal and her run last start was quite good considering the heavy leader bias against her. She maps to get a great run in midfield from barrier 5 and could be the only one to test Press Statement.

Summary

Press Statement looks to have gone to another level this preparation and Hugh Bowman said as much in his post race interview after he won the Hobartville in dominant fashion last start. Given his value at stud he will want to be winning anything put in front of him this prep before he retires. Despite the wide barrier he should be too good once again.

Behind him there only looks to be about four horses that make a strong case as place chances.

Stay With Me looks ready to peak 3rd up from her spell and stepping up to the mile. She won the Thousand Guineas over this distance last prep and with the good draw she looks to be a decent chance.

Montaigne has only had the four career starts but he made a huge step up in the Hobartville last start and there's no reason he can't go well again here. He won dominantly over the mile two starts back and from barrier 3 should get a great run.

Le Romain is another that made a big step up last start in the Hobartville.Steps up to the mile for the first time but he should go well again, while Tulsa ran huge in the CS Hayes in Melbourne so it will be interesting to line that form up here.

1st PRESS STATEMENT
2nd STAY WITH ME
3rd MONTAIGNE
4th TULSA

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_ _ _ 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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